Central Atlantic Storm Investigators

Hurricane Linda

"History In The Making"
Maps, Graphics, WWW, Discussion

From CASI HQ Friday September 12, 1997 | By Meteorologist J. Ferrell | Central Atlantic Storm Investigators' Tropical Pages
Update Sun. 12pm

Normally, living in the Eastern US, I don't have the time or energy to also deal with Pacific Storms. But today I felt compelled to do this page in tribute to Hurricane Linda, the strongest hurricane ever in the Eastern Pacific Basin.

So What's The Deal With Linda?

Linda formed as a tropical depression the morning of Tuesday, September 9, 1997, and became a weak Tropical Storm early Wednesday Morning. There had been plenty of storms in the eastern pacific this year, and nothing was special about Linda when she formed out of clusters of thunderstorms west of Mexico.

By Thursday winds had increased to an amazing 160knots (185 MPH) sustained, estimated gusts at an unbelievable 220MPH. Pressure had dropped from 1006mb to 900mb (26.58"Hg).

She began on a North/Northwestward track, as do most storms which form where she did.

Why a hurricane this big? El Nino may be to blame. It may be responsible for causing above normal ocean temperatures in the eastern pacific which have fed the storm.

On Thursday people started getting worried, especially folks living in Baja and even California. Postings sprouted up on the newsgroups, the Weather Channel began to talk it up, and arguments were made on whether or not the storm would affect Southern California and in what form.

What do we know about the island that Linda hit?

Friday afternoon Hurricane Linda likely devestated the island of Socorro, which was directly in the path of the worst part of the eyewall. What do we know about Socorro Island?

The last observation from the island was of a 35mph sustained wind, sharp pressure fall, and low visibility in a thunderstorm Friday morning.

Last 48 hours of observations from Socorro:

ISLA SOCORRO             
      TIME     T  DP  RH 24H 24L WIND PRS PCPN (0.01 in)  CLD  VIS    WX
76723 15z11   83  79  84  86  79 0008 005 6HR   0 24H   3 8/8  3           
76723 21z11   78  74  89 *** *** 0116 003 6HR   8 24H**** 8/8  3      T    
76723 00z12   78  74  89  83  75 0110 002 6HR  12 24H  10 8/8  3      T    
76723 03z12   80  77  89 *** *** 0219 001 6HR 126 24H  23 8/8  1/16   T    
76723 15z12   78  74  89  83  74 0033 986 6HR 142 24H  98 1/8  1/16   T

Will Linda hit California?

Like any weather forecast, there is much disagreement. As of tonight, Friday, September 12, there is a strong upper level trough which may carry the storm or remnants of it into the southern California area in a few days. The Weather Channel has acknowleged that there is a chance that Linda could reach California while a minimal hurricane. The NWS in California is promising that there will be no damage and no loss of life. We hope they are not underreacting. Here's their statement:

FPUS3 KLAX 121615
SFDLAX STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
900 AM PDT FRI SEP 12 1997
NOTICE TO MEDIA...THE REMAINS OF HURRICANE LINDA MAY MOVE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY. SOME OF THE MEDIA HAVE BEEN SAYING THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS MAY AFFECT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS IS NOT TRUE! ANY HURRICANE THAT APPROACHES THE SOUTHLAND WILL WEAKEN DRAMATICALLY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL HERE. WHILE THE WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG...WE ARE LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING. THERE WILL BE HIGH SURF AND SEAS AS WELL. THIS IS THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM.
I STRESS AGAIN...THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. IF THE SYSTEM DOES MOVE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...THE PRIMARY THREAT IS FLASH FLOODING AND HIGH SURF AND SEAS. BE RESPONSIBLE...PLEASE DO NOT OVERDRAMATIZE THIS THREAT. A LOT OF ALARMED PEOPLE ARE CALLING THIS OFFICE.

Has a tropical system ever hit California?

Several remnants of tropical systems have likely hit California over the years; the most recent being the remnants of Ignacio which moved over the area last month.

In 1939, a Tropical Storm moved into Southern California, killing 45 people (See Weather Channel Graphic).

How does Linda compare to The Worst Hurricanes Ever?

Linda is not the most powerful hurricane ever in the world. She is, however, the most powerful hurricane in the Eastern Pacific Basin. Since Typhoons (what Hurricanes are called in the western Pacific) have much more water to work with they often grow very strong. If nothing else Linda should be noted for forming so quickly in such a tight area. The most powerful hurricane in the world was Typhoon Tip, in the Western Pacific. I will quote from the Weather FAQ:

***************************************************************************
Subject: 6) Which is the most intense tropical cyclone on record?
Typhoon Tip in the Northwest Pacific Ocean on 12 October 1979 was measured to have a central pressure of 870 mb and estimated surface sustained winds of 85 m/s (165 kt/190mph) (Dunnavan and Diercks 1980). Typhoon Nancy on 12 September, 1961 is listed in the best track data for the Northwest Pacific region as having an estimated maximum sustained winds of 185 kt with a central pressure of 888 mb. However, it is now recognized (Black 1992) that the maximum sustained winds estimated for typhoons during the 1940s to 1960s were too strong and that the 185 kt (and numerous 160 kt to 180 kt reports) is somewhat too high.
Note that Hurricane Gilbert's estimated 888 mb lowest pressure in mid- September 1988 is the most intense [as measured by lowest sea level pressure] for the Atlantic basin (Willoughby et al 1989), it is almost 20 mb weaker (higher) than the above Typhoon Tip of the Northwest Pacific Ocean.
While the central pressures for the Northwest Pacific typhoons are the lowest globally, the North Atlantic hurricanes have provided sustained wind speeds possibly comparable to the Northwest Pacific. From the best track database, both Hurricane Camille (1969) and Hurricane Allen (1980) have winds that are estimated to be 165 kt. Measurements of such winds are inherently going to be suspect as instruments often are completely destroyed or damaged at these speeds.
***************************************************************************
HURRICANE SUSTWIND PRESSURE
LINDA
(8PM PDT 9/12)		 185 mph 900 mb
TIP (1979) 190 mph 870 mb

Additional Resources Regarding Linda:

Update - Sunday 12pm

The Weather Channel confirms this morning that "Linda will not hit California."  However, convective (shower & thunderstorm) activity is on the increase this morning as an indirect affect of the hurricane's moisture and energy. The storm has decreased in intensity with winds of only 105mph.

Update - Saturday 11pm

The new advisory and forecasts are in. According to the Weather Channel's interpretation of NHC data, the storm continues to weaken (145mph) and move on a more westward track. According to TWC, computer models are now saying that the storm may indeed NOT be picked up by the upper level trough swinging in from the northwest which means that the remnants of Linda may not affect California.

In plotting storms over the years I've seen amazing things. Backtracks, loops, complete redirection... so as is the case with all weather, we'll just have to wait and see.

Update - Saturday 3pm

Linda is weakening, as expected, as she begins to encounter colder waters. The Weather Channel notes that she seems to be assuming a more Westward track.

Amazingly, Socorro Island's observation site is transmitting once again, as of this morning (last two observations are from 8am and 11am PDT). 

ISLA SOCORRO             
      TIME     T  DP  RH 24H 24L WIND PRS PCPN (0.01 in)  CLD  VIS    WX  
76723 15z12   78  74  89  83  74 0033 986 6HR 142 24H  98 1/8  1/16   T    
76723 15z13   80  80 100 *** *** 0414 003 6HR   0 24H   0 8/8  3           
76723 18z13   84  80  89 *** *** 0412 005 6HR   0 24H**** 7/8  9

CIMSS has some excellent images in their archive today.

Corrections, additions, suggestions go to j@weatherwatchers.org