From: SIU Weather Processor (ldm@WEATHER3.ADMIN.NIU.EDU)
Date: Wed Jul 23 2008 - 11:07:00 EDT
AXPZ20 KNHC 231506
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JUL 23 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1430 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE CENTERED NEAR 15.0N 109.3W...OR ABOUT
375 NM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...AT 23/1500 UTC MOVING W AT 8
KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. AMSR-E AND TRMM MICROWAVE PASSES FROM EARLIER
THIS MORNING INDICATED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS STILL
LOCATED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SINCE THE
SYSTEM IS STILL BEING AFFECTED BY ABOUT 10 KT OF ENE SHEAR.
CONVECTIVE BANDING IS NOTED CURLING AROUND THE W THEN S SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM...BUT IT IS OFFSET A BIT TO THE W OF THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM
SW AND 60 NM NE SEMICIRCLES.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA ALONG 81W N OF 03N MOVING W
15 KT. THE WAVE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN OFF THE N COAST OF PANAMA AS WELL AS S OF
THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 81W-86W.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM 10N84W TO 08N94W TO 12N120W TO
09N130W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 06N-13N BETWEEN 88W-102W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 108W-126W. ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 04N-10N W OF 138W.
...DISCUSSION...
E OF 120W...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NE ARIZONA WITH THE
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE U.S. CENTRAL PLAINS SW
ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 28N120W. THE HIGH IS
BOUNDED BY AN UPPER LOW LOCATED ALONG THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER
NEAR 29N104W...AND THE COMBINED EFFECT IS PRODUCING
NORTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW OVER NW MEXICO. AS A RESULT...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE STATES OF
CHIHUAHUA...DURANGO...SINALOA...AND SONORA ARE BEING PUSHED SW
TOWARDS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO SHUT OFF THE FLOW OF PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE
DESERT AREAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WILL LIMIT THE NUMBER
OF MONSOON-RELATED TSTMS OVER THE REGION. ELSEWHERE...A RIDGE
EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING DEEP EASTERLY FLOW
OVER THE TROPICS WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE. A WEAK UPPER
LOW IS LOCATED JUST NW OF T.S. GENEVIEVE NEAR 21N112W BUT IS TOO
SMALL PRODUCE NOTICEABLE EFFECTS ON THE WEATHER.
W OF 120W...
THE REMNANT LOW OF T.D. FAUSTO IS LOCATED NEAR 23N124W...OR
ABOUT 770 NM W OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO...AND IS MOVING WNW AT
10 KT WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1009 MB. FAUSTO IS COMPLETELY
EMBEDDED INTO THE STABLE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD AROUND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND OVER COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...SO IS
UNABLE TO GENERATE ANY DEEP CONVECTION. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS
LOCATED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH WESTERLY WINDS EXTENDING S
TO 24N...AND THIS IS HELPING TO DRAW FAUSTO'S CIRCULATION FAIRLY
FAR TO THE N. AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED FARTHER S NEAR 16N130W
AND IS PRODUCING MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER MOST OF THE
AREA W OF 120W...AND IS THEREFORE PROHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION
ALONG THE ITCZ.
$$
BERG
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