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From: admin-auto{at}weathermatrix.net
Date: Thu Jun 16 2005 - 05:57:49 EDT
-- THIS IS A *SUMMARY ONLY* TO SEE COMPLETE ARTICLE PLEASE SEE BOTTOM OF EMAIL --
HEADLINES:
Lingering Upper Low Brings Cool Air, Showers To Northeast During The Next
Three Days; While West Coast Shivers, Strong Heat Ridge Set To Bake The Great
Plains This Weekend
EXPECTED NORTH AMERICA SEVERE OR EXTREME WEATHER NEXT 24 HOURS:
gusty winds could form (see SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK below). The tendency of
this feature will be to retrogress to the south and southwest, which will enable
residents of the Piedmont and the eastern Carolinas to have a shot at some
convection this weekend.
The sharp boundary between a sulfurous cTw+mTw regime over the Desert
Southwest into the lower High Plains and the cP values across the Midwest will create
an ideal environment for the establishment of powerful MCCs each of the next
three afternoons and evening. Initially the thunderstorms will form along the
middle and lower Front Range in an upslope+diurnal fashion. Sliding
southeastward along the thermal transition (which will vary from C KS to as far south as
the Red River Valley), nocturnal processes and cell merger processes will
generate ferocious microbursts, the occasional gustnado, torrential rain and
local formation of large hail. The potential for such groupings of cumulonimbi
will likely exist through Saturday, after which time the expected building of a
heat ridge should act to quell convective processes.
An unusually strong, cold storm complex continues in position just off the
West Coast. While most of the computer forecasts show little motion of the gyre,
the flow between the upper level low and the building heat ridge in the Great
Plains will advect warm, moist and unstable air northward from both the Sea
of Cortez and Gulf of Mexico moisture sources. Mesoscale impulses may become
involved, further aiding in the generation of showers and thunderstorms over
much of the Intermountain Region during the next 72 hours. The heaviest rains
should be concentrated very near the surface low and frontal structure, generally
over the Pacific Northwest. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to
expand from CA and OR into the Salt Lake Valley and Rocky Mountains by Saturday
afternoon.
Short-Range Numerical Weather Prediction Models
(red dot indicates preferred model)
______________________________________________________________________
WRF RUC NAM. NAM 06z NAM 18z NGM GFS-5 DGEX
RGEM SREF MM5 CRAS UKMET. COAMPS RAMS
Rutgers University Forecast Model Animator
Tabular NGM and NAM FOUS Output
______________________________________________________________________
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Cryosphere Today - Current Sea Ice and Snow Cover Data
U.S. Recent Snowfall & Snowdepth Maps
___________________________________________________________________________
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24
hours)
Some Thunderstorms May APPROACH Severe Limits
E OH....N WV....N MD....DE....PA....NJ....NY....SE ON....S
QC....ME....NH....VT
MA....RI....CT
ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Waterspouts)
FL Peninsula
SCATTERED Severe Thunderstorms (MCC Formation Likely)
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)
N TX....W AR....SW MO....S KS....OK
ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)
NM....CO....WY....MT....BC....ID....WA....OR....N CA
HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)
Isolated Locations In
NM....CO....WY....MT....BC....ID....WA....OR....N CA
(QPF 1-2")
Isolated Locations In
N TX....W AR....SW MO....S KS....OK
(QPF 1-3")
Isolated Locations In
FL Peninsula
(QPF 1-2")
Isolated Locations In
E OH....N WV....N MD....DE....PA....NJ....NY....SE ON....S
QC....ME....NH....VT
MA....RI....CT
(QPF 1-2")
HEAT ADVISORY
(potential for daily maximum temperature exceeding 100 F)
Scattered Locations In
S CA Deserts....S NV....AZ....NM....W TX....OK Panhandle....SW KS....CO....WY
UT
______________________________________________________________________
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