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From: admin-auto{at}weathermatrix.net
Date: Sun Mar 20 2005 - 05:57:01 EST
-- THIS IS A *SUMMARY ONLY* TO SEE COMPLETE ARTICLE PLEASE SEE BOTTOM OF EMAIL --
HEADLINES:
Severe Thunderstorm Outbreak Expected From Lower Great Plains Through Much Of
The Old South During Monday And Tuesday; Another Strong Storm Likely To
Progress From California To The Eastern Seaboard Later This Week
EXPECTED NORTH AMERICA SEVERE OR EXTREME WEATHER NEXT 24 HOURS:
development of supercells and bow echoes (see SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK below for
details on best potential outlined areas)
The 500MB structure (longwave to hybrid) and 250MB jet stream configuration
tomorrow point toward the greatest tornado risk being over and just west of the
"Arklatex" vicinity. Special attention should be made to the dual warm
frontal structure of this system, which will provide two avenues of higher
shear/helicity and surface convergence: one cluster in OK progressing into NW AR and
another in C and E TX. Both locations will be under a favorable velocity and
direction profile for tornadoes (note that the split in the speed maxima aloft
occurs from TX into LA and MS), and the presence of so much cold advection in
the upper levels will support large hail and microbursts. The greatest
instability (via the negative LI and highest CAPE values) lends support to the idea
that much of Dixie and the lower/middle Ohio Valley will see the strongest
thunderstorm output on Tuesday.
As to the "cold" sides of this system, snowfall potential appears to be
limited through the first 72 hours. As the low begins to deepen and accelerate on
Wednesday, passing just south of the Mason-Dixon line, it is possible that the
shield of moderate/heavy overrunning rains will change to wet snow (or even be
mainly frozen or crystalline) north of an Interstate 78 line in PA and NJ and
points northward. The linear structure of PVA by the 96 hour time frame
points toward only minor cold sector precipitation, however, across the lower Great
Lakes and Northeast.
There are two other precipitation possibilities in the near term that deserve
mention. One is the fragmented disturbance now over the eastern quarter of
the nation; the dual low structure should prevent any serious rain or snow from
developing, although I would not be surprised to see accumulations of snow in
the mountains of N PA....NW NJ....NY and W MA. The second and far more
important system will arrive with another round of heavy rain, thunder and mountain
snow in CA on Day 3. This feature may have a considerable impact on apparent
weather in the lower 48 states during the medium range.
Short-Range Numerical Weather Prediction Models
(red dot indicates preferred model)
______________________________________________________________________
WRF RUC NAM. NAM 06z NAM 18z NGM GFS-5
RGEM SREF MM5 CRAS UKMET COAMPS BAMex
Rutgers University Forecast Model Animator
Tabular NGM and NAM FOUS Output
______________________________________________________________________
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___________________________________________________________________________
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24
hours)
ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)
Coastal TX....S LA....S MS....S AL....FL Panhandle
STRONG WINDS (Pressure Gradient Derived)
BC....AB....C, S SA....ND....SD....W, C NE....W KS
STRONG WINDS (Pressure Gradient Derived)
LBR
(Monday)
Favored Storm Chaser Locations: Shawnee OK, Lufkin TX
SCATTERED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)
S KS....OK....C, E TX....C, S AR....LA....C, S MS....S AL....SW GA....FL
(Tuesday)
Favored Storm Chaser Locations: Cape Girardeau MO, Tuscaloosa AL
SCATTERED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)
C, S MO....AR....LA....MS....AL....FL....GA....TN....KY....S IN....S IL
HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)
Scattered Locations In
BC....WA....OR....N, C CA
(QPF 1-2")
Isolated Locations In
Coastal TX....S LA....S MS....S AL....FL Panhandle
(QPF 1-2")
WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for significant frozen precipitation within the next 24 hours)
Isolated Locations In
CO....UT....ID....W MT....W WY
(Snow; Above 7000 Feet; 4-8")
Scattered Locations In
BC....WA....OR....N, C CA
(Snow; Above 7000 Feet; 4-24")
--
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