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From: Thomas Giella KN4LF (kn4lf{at}tampabay.rr.com)
Date: Tue Nov 23 2004 - 11:31:48 EST
As all know we have seen a warm and dry fall 2004 so far here in Florida . Of course fall is normally dry and at least here in Plant City October 2004 actually averaged out at normal temperature wise and so far November seems to be about the same. The culprit for the warm and dry weather has been high pressure aloft, due to lingering warm ocean water in the Gulf Of Mexico/Caribbean Sea, plus the disruption of the normal jet stream pattern by the slowly building Pacific Ocean El Nino.
The beginning of the transition to colder and wetter than normal weather for Florida is now occurring but approximately one week later then I figured. Still not a bad forecast considering it was made about a month ago. In any event it looks like a significant rainfall event for many of us on Thanksgiving Day with up to 1.00" of much needed rainfall, then colder weather follows over the weekend.
Our weak El Nino pattern continues to slowly strengthen and I expect below normal temperature and above normal rainfall for December 2004 and also the period December 2004-February 2005 for Florida and the eastern 2/3's of the U.S. Severe weather occurrences will also be on the rise, much like what will occur in the eastern U.S. during the next several days.
Fortunately colder weather with an El Nino usually means no hard freezes on the Florida peninsula but that is not written in stone at this time. We will see a strengthening +PNA and -NAO which means a big trough in the east and colder weather and a big ridge out west and milder weather. So the potential for very cold weather exists for the Florida peninsula this season but we will have to cross our fingers that the El Nino stoked up subtropical jet stream rarely phases with the polar jet stream, which will be located deep into the SE U.S. this winter and the coldest weather get's blocked just to our north.
NOTE! As I officially retired from "for profit" weather forecasting in 2000, I do not have the time available to conduct an in depth daily meteorological synoptic analysis, therefore my day to day accuracy will be less then in past years, when I had a 48 hour forecast accuracy in the high 90% range.
Also as Meteorology and Weather Forecasting is still an inexact science, these not for profit discussions, forecasts and outlooks are not for use in lieu of official sources, are not for protection of life or property, are for educational purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. This discussion herein is my intellectual property and copyrighted © 1988-2004 by Thomas F. Giella, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit is given.
Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
kn4lf{at}arrl.net
SWFWMD Rainfall Observer #574
NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer #HIL-249
Plant City, FL CWOP Weather Station #CW2111 Live Data: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.html
Plant City, FL Daily Climatological Weather Data Archive: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf22.htm
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