CHECK FOR UPDATES ON THIS STORM: VIEW RECENT STORM REPORTS | GET THESE REPORTS IN YOUR EMAIL BOX
From: Thomas Giella KN4LF (kn4lf{at}tampabay.rr.com)
Date: Tue Sep 28 2004 - 12:59:38 EDT
Looking at the latest visible satellite imagery we have a disturbed area of weather in the SW Caribbean Sea east of Nicaragua and Panama.
In any event a couple of days or so ago I began mentioning the probability of a Western Caribbean/Gulf Of Mexico tropical cyclone threat. October-November is basically our local tropical cyclone season. Basically we get splitting and SW backing into the GOM of mid level cold core longwave troughs and associated surface cold fronts and subtropical jet stream mid level shortwave troughs. These temperate mid latitude non tropical weather systems sit out over the still very warm North America ocean waters and transform and grow into warm core tropical systems.
Bottom line we need to watch this disturbance because it will "possibly" grow into a future Tropical Cyclone Matthew and threaten all of the Gulf Coast, but particularly the mid and eastern Gulf Coast from New Orleans to Key West. To jog our memories, remember CAT 5 Opal in 1995? She was a local home grown tropical cyclone.
Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
kn4lf{at}arrl.net
SWFWMD Rainfall Observer #574
NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer #HIL-249
Plant City, FL CWOP Weather Station #CW2111 Live Data: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.html
Plant City, FL Daily Climatological Weather Data Archive: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf22.htm
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
Radiowave Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
---
Outgoing mail is certified virus free by Grisoft AVG 6.0.
Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).
Version: 6.0.770 / Virus Database: 517 - Release Date: 9/27/2004
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
====================================================================
StormReports Email List -- TO UNSUBSCRIBE, EMAIL A BLANK MESSAGE TO:
stormreports-unsubscribe{at}wxmatrix-membersonly ; For Options Including
1 Per Day, Temporary Suspending, And More, Visit This Web Address:
http://wxmatrix-membersonly/group/stormreports/join
THESE REPORTS ARE MADE PUBLIC ON THE WEATHERMATRIX.NET WEBSITE!
Yahoo! Groups Links
<*> To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://wxmatrix-membersonly/group/stormreports/
<*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
stormreports-unsubscribe{at}wxmatrix-membersonly
<*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
