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From: Thomas Giella KN4LF (kn4lf{at}tampabay.rr.com)
Date: Sat Sep 25 2004 - 11:36:31 EDT
Looking at the latest visible satellite loop imagery Hurricane Jeanne seems to have reached a CAT 3 major tropical cyclone. She is also still on a westerly heading at around 15 miles per hour and continuing to strengthen. Her eye diameter continues to shrink in size as the eyewall tops are getting colder. Outflow is also looking more symmetrical also. Some dry air advection is still occurring on her left side but it seems to be having no affect on Jeanne at this time.
I just conducted a thorough synoptic analysis including looking upstream into the future environment in front of Jeanne including water temperature. I don't want to be alarmist BUT current environmental conditions seem ripe for Jeanne to rapidly grow to a "possible" CAT 4 status before landfall. I also still see no chance for a NW-N turn that would spare Florida of a direct hit from "another" major hurricane.
I continue to expect more track shifting to the left as Jeanne heads for a landfall somewhere between Palm Beach and Fort Pierce on early Sunday morning. It's also possible that my Tarpon Springs to Bayport exit corridor into the Gulf Of Mexico may have to be shifted further south down the west coast of Florida, something closer to a Tarpon Springs to a Sarasota exit corridor. That would allow for a serious storm surge to occur along much of the Nature Coast.
NOTE! As I officially retired from "for profit" weather forecasting in 2000, I do not have the time available to conduct an in depth daily Meteorological synoptic analysis, therefore my day to day accuracy will be less then in past years, when I had a 48 hour forecast accuracy in the high 90% range.
Also as the science of Meteorology and Weather Forecasting is still an inexact science, these not for profit discussions, forecasts and outlooks are not for use in lieu of official sources, are not for protection of life or property, are for educational purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. This discussion herein is my intellectual property and copyrighted © 1988-2004 by Thomas F. Giella, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit is given.
Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
kn4lf{at}arrl.net
SWFWMD Rainfall Observer #574
NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer #HIL-249
Plant City, FL CWOP Weather Station #CW2111 Live Data: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.html
Plant City, FL Daily Climatological Weather Data Archive: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf22.htm
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Radiowave Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
CAT 2 Jeanne continues to slowly strengthen.. Her track is still due west at an increased forward speed of 15 mph.
Her eye wall is still large at approximately 40 miles but I expect it to begin decreasing in size. Also some dry air
entrainment is occurring on her left side.
The NHC/TPC 5:00 am EDT advisory on soon to be CAT 3 Jeanne has shifted the
track to the left, more in line with the track I first forecasted quite a few days ago.
I expect more track shifting to the left to occur as Jeanne heads for a landfall somewhere
between Palm beach and Fort Pierce on Sunday morning. It's also possible
that my Tarpon Springs to Bayport exit corridor into the Gulf Of Mexico
may have to be shifted further south down the west coast of Florida.
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