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From: Thomas Giella KN4LF (kn4lf{at}tampabay.rr.com)
Date: Thu Sep 23 2004 - 12:24:32 EDT
Looking at the latest visible satellite imagery loop strong CAT 2 Ivan is now moving west at around 5 mph. She did make the full clockwise
loop that I forecasted a few days ago. This morning she still has a well defined eyewall with very high tops and a near clear eye center. Earlier today the
eye center was clear. Outflow is still looking pretty good except in the W and SW quadrants where some WSW wind shearing is still occurring on Jeanne's left side. Overall she appears a bit odd to me this morning.
It appears that I'm the only Meteorologist that has consistently forecasted a probable Florida east coast landfall for Jeanne during the past week. I was calling for a CAT 2 cyclone with a possible landfall between Vero Beach and Melbourne for a number of days and then I adjusted that to somewhere between Cape Canaveral and the Outer Banks of North Carolina as a CAT 1-2. Today I once again readjust the landfall further south. I now predict a landfall between Palm Beach and Vero Beach (similar to Frances but faster) with a WNW-NW track across the Florida Peninsula, then exiting into the Gulf Of Mexico between Tarpon Springs and Bayport. I expect landfall on Sunday morning as a CAT 2 cyclone. Why this track adjustment? Strong blocking high pressure to the north over the weekend. Landfall intensity is still a tough call but I will stick with a CAT 2 for now.
Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
kn4lf{at}arrl.net
SWFWMD Rainfall Observer #574
NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer #HIL-249
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Looking at the latest visible satellite imagery loop CAT 2 Hurricane Jeanne is now moving S-SSW at around 6 mph. This means that she is completing the clockwise loop that I forecasted a few days ago. She still has a healthy and tight eyewall with deep convection and outflow looks pretty good except in the SW quadrant where a little WSW-SW wind shear seems be occurring. The eyewall has once again become shrouded as an eyewall replacement cycle may be once again occurring.
She will finish the complete clockwise loop and head W-WNW towards the Florida east coast in 2-3 days, steered by the slow eastward moving large and strong high pressure system currently centered over the Mid Atlantic region. Jeanne may also once face increased wind shear enroute the Florida east coast waters so her ultimate strength is still tough to call. All depends on the strength and actual position of the high pressure system which I expect to anchor near Bermuda, to determine exactly where she makes possible landfall. I was calling for a CAT 2 cyclone with a possible landfall between Vero Beach and Melbourne for a number of days but now I alter that to somewhere between Cape Canaveral and the outer Banks of North Carolina as a CAT 1-2. Why? Because the weakness on the left side of the high pressure system "may" allow for a NW-N track east of the Florida coast. Jeanne is a tough forecast call to say the least!
Ex Hurricane Ivan/future T.S. Matthew? Though some Meteorologists are arguing against the concept, in my professional opinion it's the low level remains of once mighty CAT 5 Ivan. It made a big clockwise loop back into the Atlantic Ocean via South Carolina and crossed the southern peninsula of Florida yesterday. He/it is headed for the Texas Gulf Coast in future days as a possible T.S. Matthew. If this system regains some/all tropical characteristics the NHC/TPC would probably rename the system because they already issued the final advisory on Ivan. BTE this rare beast is an ever tougher forecast call.
I haven't had time to look at Karl, Lisa or the other two trailing tropical disturbances so will not comment on them today.
NOTE! As I officially retired from "for profit" weather forecasting in 2000, I do not have the time available to conduct an in depth daily meteorological synoptic analysis, therefore my day to day accuracy will be less then in past years, when I had a 48 hour forecast accuracy in the high 90% range.
Also as the science of Meteorology and Weather Forecasting is still an inexact science, these not for profit discussions, forecasts and outlooks are not for use in lieu of official sources, are not for protection of life or property, are for educational purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. This discussion herein is my intellectual property and copyrighted © 1988-2004 by Thomas F. Giella, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit is given.
As I posted on Friday September 17, 2004, Jeanne is displaying some similar traits as Ivan. With all the adversity thrown at her in recent days she has not died but instead has grown to a CAT 1 hurricane again with a temporary move to the NE at around 8 mph. I say temporary because the mid latitude trough passing by to the north did not pick Jeanne up. She is looking quite good with a solid and tight eyewall but with a shrouded eye and good outflow. She will probably end up going quasi stationary again then make a complete loop and head W-WNW towards the Florida east coast in future days, steered by the eastward moving large and strong high pressure system currently centered over the Mid Atlantic region. She may also once face wind shear again enroute Florida so her ultimate strength is tough to call. I'll stick with a CAT 2 cyclone with a possible landfall between Vero Beach and Melbourne in future days.
We can still pretty much ignore CAT 3 Karl but he is a thing of beauty on visible satellite images. He will recurve NW-N-NE in future days and be only a threat to shipping. and maybe Europe.
T.S. Lisa. A very small cyclone with improved banding and outflow. She will probably grow quickly to a hurricane and threaten the northern Leeward islands in future days on a WNW heading. A U.S. strike is also possible.
Ex Hurricane Ivan/Future T.S. Matthew. Yes it's the low level remains of once mighty CAT 5 Ivan. See I said that it would strike peninsular Florida :<)) It made a big clockwise loop back into the Atlantic Ocean via South Carolina. Bizarre but true! He/it will pass across South Florida tonight and emerge into the Gulf Of Mexico and head for the Texas Gulf Coast in future days as a possible T.S. Matthew.
Yes there are two other strong tropical disturbances chasing Lisa. GADS!
NOTE! As I officially retired from "for profit" weather forecasting in 2000, I do not have the time available to conduct an in depth daily meteorological synoptic analysis, therefore my day to day accuracy will be less then in past years, when I had a 48 hour forecast accuracy in the high 90% range.
Also as the science of Meteorology and Weather Forecasting is still an inexact science, these not for profit discussions, forecasts and outlooks are not for use in lieu of official sources, are not for protection of life or property, are for educational purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. This discussion herein is my intellectual property and copyrighted © 1988-2004 by Thomas F. Giella, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit is given.
Looking at latest visible satellite imagery tenacious T.S. Jeanne is still kicking. She is slowly reorganizing with an improvement in banding features but still no organized eyewall around her broad center. She seems to be meandering north at the moment.
In my personal opinion modeling forecasts are confused and totally unreliable at this time. My original forecast was for a WNW track somewhere between Palm Beach and Havana but that went out the window when she became stationary. My best guess at this moment is a clockwise looping track with a possible future threat somewhere between Palm Beach and Charleston, S.C as a CAT 1-2 tropical cyclone. I know that's a big window but it's the best I can do at this moment with allot of uncertainty.
Ivan! In my opinion he still exists. His mid level energy went NE with an extratropical cold core low along the cold front into New England. BUT his low level circulation is still kicking and is tracking SW back towards NE Florida. In a to weird to be scenario he could re-enter the GOM and become a tropical cyclone threat once again. Small chance though!
Karl. A CAT 3 and only a threat to shipping and then Great Britain as an extratropical low.
T.D. #13. Looks like one to me! It's near 13 N 32 W and heading WNW. It will probably become Lisa in the near future.
NOTE! As I officially retired from "for profit" weather forecasting in 2000, I do not have the time available to conduct an in depth daily meteorological synoptic analysis, therefore my day to day accuracy will be less then in past years, when I had a 48 hour forecast accuracy in the high 90% range.
Also as the science of Meteorology and Weather Forecasting is still an inexact science, these not for profit discussions, forecasts and outlooks are not for use in lieu of official sources, are not for protection of life or property, are for educational purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. This discussion herein is my intellectual property and copyrighted © 1988-2004 by Thomas F. Giella, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit is given.
I see that the 5:00 pm EDT advisory has downgraded Jeanne to a T.D. just got home at 10:30 pm EDT and I've looked a no new data this evening so will hold any comments on Jeanne's possible forecast track until tomorrow morning. But the NHC 11:00 am track with the left turn into Daytona Beach though not impossible was highly improbable. Any model forecast with a direct hit between Cape Canaveral and Savannah, GA is almost always hogwash. Just look at the number of direct hits in that region in the past 100 years and you will see what I mean.
NOTE! As I officially retired from "for profit" weather forecasting in 2000, I do not have the time available to conduct an in depth daily meteorological synoptic analysis, therefore my day to day accuracy will be less then in past years, when I had a 48 hour forecast accuracy in the high 90% range.
Also as the science of Meteorology and Weather Forecasting is still an inexact science, these not for profit discussions, forecasts and outlooks are not for use in lieu of official sources, are not for protection of life or property, are for educational purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. This discussion herein is my intellectual property and copyrighted © 1988-2004 by Thomas F. Giella, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit is given.
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