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From: Thomas Giella KN4LF (kn4lf{at}tampabay.rr.com)
Date: Wed Sep 22 2004 - 12:20:21 EDT
Looking at the latest visible satellite imagery loop CAT 2 Hurricane Jeanne is now moving S-SSW at around 6 mph. This means that she is completing the clockwise loop that I forecasted a few days ago. She still has a healthy and tight eyewall with deep convection and outflow looks pretty good except in the SW quadrant where a little WSW-SW wind shear seems be occurring. The eyewall has once again become shrouded as an eyewall replacement cycle may be once again occurring.
She will finish the complete clockwise loop and head W-WNW towards the Florida east coast in 2-3 days, steered by the slow eastward moving large and strong high pressure system currently centered over the Mid Atlantic region. Jeanne may also once face increased wind shear enroute the Florida east coast waters so her ultimate strength is still tough to call. All depends on the strength and actual position of the high pressure system which I expect to anchor near Bermuda, to determine exactly where she makes possible landfall. I was calling for a CAT 2 cyclone with a possible landfall between Vero Beach and Melbourne for a number of days but now I alter that to somewhere between Cape Canaveral and the outer Banks of North Carolina as a CAT 1-2. Why? Because the weakness on the left side of the high pressure system "may" allow for a NW-N track east of the Florida coast. Jeanne is a tough forecast call to say the least!
Ex Hurricane Ivan/future T.S. Matthew? Though some Meteorologists are arguing against the concept, in my professional opinion it's the low level remains of once mighty CAT 5 Ivan. It made a big clockwise loop back into the Atlantic Ocean via South Carolina and crossed the southern peninsula of Florida yesterday. He/it is headed for the Texas Gulf Coast in future days as a possible T.S. Matthew. If this system regains some/all tropical characteristics the NHC/TPC would probably rename the system because they already issued the final advisory on Ivan. BTE this rare beast is an ever tougher forecast call.
I haven't had time to look at Karl, Lisa or the other two trailing tropical disturbances so will not comment on them today.
NOTE! As I officially retired from "for profit" weather forecasting in 2000, I do not have the time available to conduct an in depth daily meteorological synoptic analysis, therefore my day to day accuracy will be less then in past years, when I had a 48 hour forecast accuracy in the high 90% range.
Also as the science of Meteorology and Weather Forecasting is still an inexact science, these not for profit discussions, forecasts and outlooks are not for use in lieu of official sources, are not for protection of life or property, are for educational purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. This discussion herein is my intellectual property and copyrighted © 1988-2004 by Thomas F. Giella, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit is given.
Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
kn4lf{at}arrl.net
SWFWMD Rainfall Observer #574
NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer #HIL-249
Plant City, FL CWOP Weather Station #CW2111 Live Data: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.html
Plant City, FL Daily Climatological Weather Data Archive: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf22.htm
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
Radiowave Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
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