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From: Thomas Giella KN4LF (kn4lf{at}tampabay.rr.com)
Date: Mon Sep 20 2004 - 21:54:40 EDT
As I posted on Friday September 17, 2004, Jeanne is displaying some similar traits as Ivan. With all the adversity thrown at her in recent days she has not died but instead has grown to a CAT 1 hurricane again with a temporary move to the NE at around 8 mph. I say temporary because the mid latitude trough passing by to the north did not pick Jeanne up. She is looking quite good with a solid and tight eyewall but with a shrouded eye and good outflow. She will probably end up going quasi stationary again then make a complete loop and head W-WNW towards the Florida east coast in future days, steered by the eastward moving large and strong high pressure system currently centered over the Mid Atlantic region. She may also once face wind shear again enroute Florida so her ultimate strength is tough to call. I'll stick with a CAT 2 cyclone with a possible landfall between Vero Beach and Melbourne in future days.
We can still pretty much ignore CAT 3 Karl but he is a thing of beauty on visible satellite images. He will recurve NW-N-NE in future days and be only a threat to shipping. and maybe Europe.
T.S. Lisa. A very small cyclone with improved banding and outflow. She will probably grow quickly to a hurricane and threaten the northern Leeward islands in future days on a WNW heading. A U.S. strike is also possible.
Ex Hurricane Ivan/Future T.S. Matthew. Yes it's the low level remains of once mighty CAT 5 Ivan. See I said that it would strike peninsular Florida :<)) It made a big clockwise loop back into the Atlantic Ocean via South Carolina. Bizarre but true! He/it will pass across South Florida tonight and emerge into the Gulf Of Mexico and head for the Texas Gulf Coast in future days as a possible T.S. Matthew.
Yes there are two other strong tropical disturbances chasing Lisa. GADS!
NOTE! As I officially retired from "for profit" weather forecasting in 2000, I do not have the time available to conduct an in depth daily meteorological synoptic analysis, therefore my day to day accuracy will be less then in past years, when I had a 48 hour forecast accuracy in the high 90% range.
Also as the science of Meteorology and Weather Forecasting is still an inexact science, these not for profit discussions, forecasts and outlooks are not for use in lieu of official sources, are not for protection of life or property, are for educational purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. This discussion herein is my intellectual property and copyrighted © 1988-2004 by Thomas F. Giella, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit is given.
Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
kn4lf{at}arrl.net
SWFWMD Rainfall Observer #574
NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer #HIL-249
Plant City, FL CWOP Weather Station #CW2111 Live Data: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.html
Plant City, FL Daily Climatological Weather Data Archive: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf22.htm
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
Radiowave Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
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