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From: Thomas Giella KN4LF (kn4lf{at}tampabay.rr.com)
Date: Sun Sep 19 2004 - 13:27:48 EDT
The first cold front of the "almost" early fall season arrived yesterday in north and central Florida. Precipitable water was down to 0.91" at TBW, after many days near or above 2.00".
The cool spot this Sunday morning September 19, 2004 was 58 deg. at Ft. White in the non peninsular north. Here in suburban SW Plant City 25 miles east of Tampa my minimum temperature was 66 deg. That's very pleasant considering that for the past two weeks we have been seeing minimum's in the mid 70's to near 80 deg. Yesterday afternoon during the DAA after the cold front my dewpoint dipped to 59 deg., after many days in the mid to upper 70's.
Looking at latest visible satellite imagery tenacious T.S. Jeanne is still kicking. She is slowly reorganizing with an improvement in banding features but still no organized eyewall around her broad center. She seems to be meandering north at the moment.
In my personal opinion modeling forecasts are confused and totally unreliable at this time. My original forecast was for a WNW track somewhere between Palm Beach and Havana but that went out the window when she became stationary. My best guess at this moment is a clockwise looping track with a possible future threat somewhere between Palm Beach and Charleston, S.C as a CAT 1-2 tropical cyclone. I know that's a big window but it's the best I can do at this moment with allot of uncertainty.
Ivan! In my opinion he still exists. His mid level energy went NE with an extratropical cold core low along the cold front into New England. BUT his low level circulation is still kicking and is tracking SW back towards NE Florida. In a to weird to be scenario he could re-enter the GOM and become a tropical cyclone threat once again. Small chance though!
Karl. A CAT 3 and only a threat to shipping and then Great Britain as an extratropical low.
T.D. #13. Looks like one to me! It's near 13 N 32 W and heading WNW. It will probably become Lisa in the near future.
Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
kn4lf{at}arrl.net
SWFWMD Rainfall Observer #574
NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer #HIL-249
Plant City, FL CWOP Weather Station #CW2111 Live Data: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.html
Plant City, FL Daily Climatological Weather Data Archive: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf22.htm
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
Radiowave Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
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