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From: Thomas Giella KN4LF (kn4lf{at}tampabay.rr.com)
Date: Mon Aug 30 2004 - 21:23:29 EDT
Hurricane Francis seems to be experiencing less SW wind shear at this moment and eyewall reorganization/replacement seems to be finished for now, so she may be slowly strengthening again. As I forecasted though, it's pretty clear that she will be north of 20 deg. north latitude when she reaches 63 deg. west latitude. So at worst the northern Leeward Islands "will" experience tropical storm force wind gusts. She still has to fight some shearing though through approximately 70 deg. west longitude, so I do not expect rapid strengthening to a CAT 5 in the next few days.
I'm getting an enormous amount of email from old customers, friends, storm chasers and even foes but have really said little about Frances other then on a couple of hobby weather eGroups. BUT if I were still in business I would be warning customers of a better then 60% chance of landfall on the SE coast of Florida next weekend. A Miami to Fort Myers track or maybe a Ft. Lauderdale to Sarasota track, hard to say that far in advance. A landfall forecast error of under 200 miles would be pretty good this many days out.
I've looked at all of the models again today and I see a continuing westward track bias. But as most already know I feel that if you live by the model you die by the model. But if you ignore what the models say about an actual track for Frances and look at what weather systems are in place now and what's being progged at mid levels over mid latitudes in North America, it's a no brainer. My hoped for mid level weakness to be left behind by Hurricane Gaston and Tropical Storm Hermine will not linger or even exist. And the strong longwave trough will be out over the western U.S. and unable to eject shortwaves SE-E'ward due to strong ridging along the U.S. East Coast . Hurricanes turn NW into troughs when within approximately 10 deg. west longitude. So there is nothing to turn Frances NW-N east of Florida like I originally hoped for.
BUT what does a lower latitude more westward track mean if it continues to occur? The good news would be a close brush with Hispaniola and/or Cuba. This close brush would continue to inhibit Frances' growth to a CAT 5 cyclone, even knock her back to a CAT 3. Also like with CAT 4 Hurricane Charley coming ashore in SW Florida, speed divergence could pull Frances' eye wall onshore into one of the Great Antilles further disrupting the cyclone.
We can also hope for an unseen unprogged disturbance in the subtropical jet stream sneaking in under a dirty ridge to turn Frances NW-N east of Florida but that's unlikely.
A note though, last year while in semi retirement I committed to a similar forecast on Hurricane Isabel making a landfall on the east coast of Florida, when she reached approximately 22 N 60 W. At this time though Frances is at approximately 19.5 N 60 W, but that southerly difference in latitude can make all the difference. In any event last years forecast brought upon me a blistering attack by the media and colleagues. I was even accused of being obsessed and neurotic.
Once again though I add this disclaimer. As I've officially retired from space and atmospheric weather forecasting, confidence in my forecast of tropical cyclone path and intensity is lower as I no longer pay for real time raw weather forecasting products.
Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
kn4lf{at}arrl.net
SWFWMD Rainfall Observer #574
NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer #HIL-249
CWOP Weather Station #CW2111
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
Radiowave Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
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