CHECK FOR UPDATES ON THIS STORM: VIEW RECENT STORM REPORTS | GET THESE REPORTS IN YOUR EMAIL BOX
From: Thomas Giella KN4LF (kn4lf{at}tampabay.rr.com)
Date: Sun Aug 29 2004 - 17:48:11 EDT
Barbara et all,
Looking at the latest satellite images It looks like Hurricane Frances is beginning to undergo a bit of SW shearing. Also some eyewall restructuring still seems to be occurring, so she remains a CAT 4 cyclone with maybe some slight weakening. SW shear should increase as Frances reaches 60 deg. west longitude through approximately 70 deg. west longitude and this may inhibit strengthening to a CAT 5 in the middle term.
The powerful high pressure ridge to it's north continues to strengthen and build west, the cause of Frances' westerly turn earlier today. Earlier I took the liberty of looking at more modeling and what I see is troublesome. I'm seeing a trend of more models coming into agreement with a continued lower latitude westward track for Frances. If this verifies then any low pressure weakness that "may" be left behind by Hurricane Gaston (yes it was a hurricane when it came ashore in S.C.) and future T.S. Hermine could not pull Frances NW-N east of Florida and/or the T & K and Bahama Islands.
It's still likely though that Frances' eye wall will pass approximately 100 miles north of your location of 18.1 deg N, 63.1 deg. W. And yes you "could" experience some tropical storm force winds, as Frances is a large storm.
But what does a lower latitude more westward track mean if it were to occur? The good news would be a close brush with Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba. This close brush would continue to inhibit Frances growth to a CAT 5 cyclone, even knock her back to a CAT 3. Also like with CAT 4 Hurricane Charley, speed divergence could pull Frances' eye wall onshore into one of the Great Antilles further disrupting the cyclone. A third option, one of bad news that just makes me shudder! A nightmarish CAT 4 strike to deep South Florida and a WNW-NW movement across the peninsula exiting into the Gulf Of Mexico north of Charlotte Harbor.
Once again though I add this disclaimer. As I've officially retired from weather forecasting, confidence in my forecast of tropical cyclone path and intensity is low, as I no longer pay for real time raw weather forecasting products.
Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
kn4lf{at}arrl.net
SWFWMD Rainfall Observer #574
NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer #HIL-249
CWOP Weather Station #CW2111
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
Radiowave Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
---
Outgoing mail is certified virus free by Grisoft AVG 6.0.
Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).
Version: 6.0.745 / Virus Database: 497 - Release Date: 8/27/2004
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
====================================================================
StormReports Email List -- TO UNSUBSCRIBE, EMAIL A BLANK MESSAGE TO:
stormreports-unsubscribe{at}wxmatrix-membersonly ; For Options Including
1 Per Day, Temporary Suspending, And More, Visit This Web Address:
http://wxmatrix-membersonly/group/stormreports/join
THESE REPORTS ARE MADE PUBLIC ON THE WEATHERMATRIX.NET WEBSITE!
Yahoo! Groups Links
<*> To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://wxmatrix-membersonly/group/stormreports/
<*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
stormreports-unsubscribe{at}wxmatrix-membersonly
<*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
