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From: Thomas Giella KN4LF (kn4lf{at}tampabay.rr.com)
Date: Sun Aug 29 2004 - 14:34:29 EDT
Barbara et all,
It looks like Hurricane Frances is undergoing some reorganization as is the norm, so has stopped strengthening for the moment. The cyclone is also wobbling as well as making small heading changes in response to the weather systems to the north. A brief period at a CAT 5 cyclone is still possible.
It's still likely that Frances' eye wall will pass approximately 100 miles north of your location of 18.1 deg N, 63.1 deg. W. And yes you "could" experience some tropical storm force winds, as Frances is a large storm.
BTW, though I still feel at this moment that Frances will turn NW-N and past east of Florida and possibly threaten the Carolina's, right now the south and central Florida peninsula is in danger.
Once again though I add this disclaimer. Confidence in my forecast of tropical cyclone path and intensity is low, as I no longer pay for real time raw weather forecasting products
Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
kn4lf{at}arrl.net
SWFWMD Rainfall Observer #574
NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer #HIL-249
CWOP Weather Station #CW2111
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
Radiowave Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
----- Original Message -----
From: Barbara
To: weathervine{at}wxmatrix-membersonly
Sent: Saturday, August 28, 2004 6:24 PM
Subject: [Weathervine.com] Re: Hurricane Frances
Hi Thomas
thanks for your reply.I enjoy reading your posts and emails.
do you still feel that Frances will pass North of 20N? On another
weatheer site, one of the mets said:
"Along it's current forecast track...Frances will pass to the north of
the islands...but close enough to potentially create tropical storm
conditions there. Tropical Storm watches will likely be issued later
tonight or in the morning...which suggests that there could be some
downed tree branches and as a result a potential loss of power.
Residents with boats should consider securing them at some point.
Should the hurricane deviate just a little south of it's current
track it could still conceivably affect the northern most islands."
would you agree with that?
Now the question is when would we know if there is a deviation south?
and does it look like it has stopped it's NW run and is about to start
a WNW run? It is directly East of us at the 5 PM update.
--- In weathervine{at}wxmatrix-membersonly, "Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf{at}t...>
wrote:
> Hi Barbara,
> Very nice to hear from you. I have retired from weather
forecasting effective May 01, 2004. As I do not pay for real time raw
weather forecasting data any longer, my forecast accuracy has dropped
from the mid 90% range to the mid 50% range at the 3 days out point on
tropical cyclones.
> In any event I'm pretty confident that Frances will pass north of
the 20 N 63 W and then the Greater Antilles and then turn NW-N through
the T & K's and Bahama's and threaten the Carolina's. However it's
possible before that that Frances will make a bead for Miami and the
Keys before turning away, having scared the heck out of everyone with
a lingering mental Andrew-ism. It's also increasingly likely that
Frances could reach short lived CAT 5 status, as someone on this list
first suggested a couple of days ago.
> Looks like we also have T.S. Hermine east of T.S. Gaston, though
the NHC has not even designated it as a T.D. yet. Gaston may reach CAT
1 status and rake the coastal Carolina's. It could also pull another
Alex by rapidly intensifying. Hermine will stay out to sea possibly
threatening Bermuda. We also still have a homegrown tropical cyclone
threat in the Gulf Of Mexico next week.
> If the NHC designates a T.S. Hermine then we have 8 named storms in
August, probably in the top three historically for activity?! I think
we will probably witness a 2004 hurricane season as busy as in 1995.
> By the way I send these emails out in response to persons with
present queries and persons with past queries. If I send something to
you that you don't want to receive just let me know.
>
> Take Care,
> Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
> Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
> Plant City, FL, USA
> kn4lf{at}a...
>
> SWFWMD Rainfall Observer #574
> NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer #HIL-249
> CWOP Weather Station #CW2111
>
> KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
> Radiowave Propagation eGroup:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Barbara
> To: weathervine{at}wxmatrix-membersonly
> Sent: Friday, August 27, 2004 3:52 PM
> Subject: Re: [Weathervine.com] T.S. Frances
>
>
>
> Thomas
>
> the models have been changing so much. Does it still look to you like
> Frances will pass North of the islands? I live in the Northern lesser
> Antilles and, believe me, Frances has everyone worried. I'm at 18.1 N
> and 63.1 W.
> anything you can tell me would be appreciated.
> Thanks
>
>
>
> ---
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