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From: admin-auto{at}weathermatrix.net
Date: Sat May 29 2004 - 05:57:00 EDT
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HEADLINES:
Devastating Outbreak Of Tornadoes, Flooding Rains Likely This Weekend Across
Portions Of Great Plains, Midwest, And Dixie! Blocking Pattern Helps Transform
The Severe Weather Machine Into An Excessive Rain Event Over Mid-Atlantic And
New England Next Week
EXPECTED NORTH AMERICA SEVERE OR EXTREME WEATHER NEXT 24 HOURS:
the SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK. Today, we can pinpoint two tornado risk maxima,
even considering that every known parameter for supercell production is present
with this feature, for the next TWO days! The MUCAPE and LI core is present
over much of C, E KS and N OK, at the point where the dry line converges with the
surface low, warm and cold fronts and where the 250MB jet stream velocity
maximum is entering from CO and NM. So one possible chaser target would be in the
vicinity of Wichita KS. The other, combining decent instability with
impressive PVA and helicity values is over S MN and IA near the second warm front. So
the general vicinity around of Spencer IA should be looked at by storm
enthusiasts.
The system will be at peak strength tomorrow, with a slow shift toward the
east. Keep in mind that the steady progression forecast by the GFS and GGEM
schemes must be tempered by the fact that a rather massive blocking configuration
is evident in Canada with an anchored cPk vortex over NWF. So this feature
must knock down the subtropical high off the coastline of the Southeast, which
will take an additional 24 hours over what the NWP schemes would suggest. In any
event, the area from the Ozark Plateau through the Great Lakes, Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys will be primed for a damaging twister outbreak on Sunday.
Again, I must emphasize the excessive precipitation potential with this storm
complex. High QPF risks are present even in the cold and overrunning sectors
today and tomorrow, and by Memorial Day relocation of the surface low will
spawn strong lifting and forcing in middle Appalachia and parts of the Eastern
Seaboard. With the aforementioned blocking scenario showing no signs of ending,
it is even conceivable that a tertiary frontal wave could form, maintaining
the heavy rains from PA and NJ into New England on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Short-Range Numerical Weather Prediction Models
(red dot indicates preferred model)
______________________________________________________________________
Tabular NGM and ETA FOUS Output
RUC ETA. ETA 06z ETA 18z NGM GFS-5
RGEM. SREF MM5 CRAS UKMET COAMPS BAMex
Mike Sager's Weather Forecast Model Animator
______________________________________________________________________
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______________________________________________________________________
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24
hours)
NUMEROUS Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Tornadoes)
C, E TX....OK....KS....C, E NE....E SD....S MN....IA....MO....S IL....W KY
TN....W NC....W SC....N GA....N AL....N MS....N LA....AR
STORM CHASER TARGET CITIES: Wichita KS and Spencer IA
(Sunday)
NUMEROUS Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Tornadoes)
E TX....AR....C, E MO....E IA....WI....S Lower MI....OH....WV....VA....NC
TN....N GA....N AL....N MS....LA
(Monday)
ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)
SC....NC....VA....C, S WV....S OH....KY....TN....N GA....N AL....N MS
HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)
Scattered Locations In
E AB....SA....S MB....MN....WI....IA....MO....S IL....W KY....TN....W NC
W SC....N GA....N AL....N MS....N LA....C, E TX....AR....OK....KS
C, E NE....C, E SD....ND
(QPF 1-5")
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