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[STORMREPORTS] IL Tornadoes Caught Meteorologists by Surprise

From: Jesse Ferrell (WeatherMatrix) (ferrell{at}weathermatrix.net)
Date: Sat Apr 24 2004 - 15:45:17 EDT


Link to quoted SPC Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2004/day1otlk_20040420_1200.html

FULL STORY:
http://www.dailyherald.com/search/main_story.asp?intid=38099104

"Shortly before 5 p.m. - only an hour before a legion of as many as 14
tornadoes marched through the southwestern reaches of the suburbs, killing
eight - six National Weather Service meteorologists in Romeoville were
preparing for a night of scattered thunderstorms. Nothing more.

The national Storm Prediction Center's most recent "Convective Outlook,"
issued at 3 p.m., showed west-central Illinois stood a "slight" risk of
tornadoes."

But most got the word out, on average, 16 minutes before each potential
killer touched down and was confirmed by local spotters and emergency
personnel from 5:58 to 7:40 p.m., according to Stefkovich and weather
service data. The weather service's goal is 15 to 20 minutes of advance
warning.

The warning of the F-3 tornado that hit Utica was issued 30 minutes before
it struck, killing at least eight, according to Stefkovich, weather service
reports and the state Emergency Management Agency.

The large-scale prediction system - scientifically known as the Convective
Outlook, which aims to forecast severe storms hours ahead of time - had
failed. But the local emergency warning system had worked as well as it
could, Stefkovich and Churchill said."

-- 
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Jesse Ferrell - Meteorologist / Webmaster / Founder - WeatherMatrix
8000 Weather Enthusiasts Can't Be Wrong! www.weathermatrix.net 

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