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From: Thomas Giella KN4LF (kn4lf{at}tampabay.rr.com)
Date: Sat Sep 20 2003 - 09:56:48 EDT
Here in Plant City, FL on Wednesday and Thursday mornings I had a 66 deg. low. At my cousins house in East Nobleton it was 59 deg both mornings, as drier air was forced southward around the CCW circulation of Isabel! During the day Thursday the relative humidity dipped to 34% with a dewpoint of 58 deg and a breezy NNE wind so it felt Fall like. Was gonna' mow the lawn then but decided to wait until yesterday, knowing full well that Summer would return on Friday.
Yesterday Summer did return with a vengeance with a high temp. of 91 deg., a minimum relative humidity of 58% and dewpoint of 74 deg. Yes I mowed the lawn and trimmed hedges etc. and it was just sweltering. During the evening hours I had three separate thunderstorms, with a total of 1.43" falling. I've now received 5.05" of rain so far this month.
Speaking of Isabel ONE LAST TIME, what saved Florida this time is basically all a matter of timing. All summer we have been experiencing an unusual 500 mb longwave trough splitting and retrograding pattern and a still lingering very weak El Nino. As a matter of fact look at the latest 250 mb analysis and you can see the subtropical jet active across the deep south http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ETA/etaUS_250_spd_0.gif .
The splitting and retrograding 500 mb troughs and their associated shortwave troughs have been digging further south and east then normal into the Gulf Of Mexico since last Winter and is the main reason for our very wet Summer 2003.
Three of the shortwave troughs hammered the big high pressure ridge in the western Atlantic Ocean as Isabel approached. A piece of the big high also slipped southwestward over Texas and New Mexico, with a weakness and SW steering flow in between, which Isabel turned in to.
In a normal summer all the troughs would have been further north and west and the SFC-250 mb high pressure ridge (Bermuda High) would have nosed across north Florida, providing the steering flow that would have sent Isabel plowing across south and central Florida as a CAT 5/4.
BTW we now have to watch the western Caribbean Sea and Gulf Of Mexico for the formation of the next tropical cyclone threat.
Take Care,
Thomas Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
SWFWMD Rainfall Observer #574
NWS Tampa Bay, FL Skywarn Spotter #HIL-249
Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute:
http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm
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