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From: Thomas Giella KN4LF (kn4lf{at}tampabay.rr.com)
Date: Sun Aug 31 2003 - 10:29:14 EDT
Hi Liz,
T.S. Grace is very disorganized. The "official" center is near you and will come ashore near Aransas Pass. There is a second center near Galveston which is common in large disorganized T.S.'s. Seems that most of the weather is with the second unofficial center near Galveston.
I suspect that the tropical center is near you but no longer a T.S. and the second center near Galveston is a cold core TUTT low, which is causing Grace to weaken. I saw that in October of 1986 when I was working in Galveston. The TUTT low turned the wind to from the north and temperatures were in the low 50's with heavy rain!!! The NHC just ignored the cold side of the T.S.
Fabian is the scary one as it's nearing Cat 4 strength. It's all a matter of timing, with a developing long wave trough that the models are forecasting. If the 500 mb trough forms slowly it's another Hugo/Fran possibility for S.C./N.C. or if not at all then it's another Andrew possibility for South Florida. Fabian could reach Cat 5 status too!
Yes we are flooded out here in un-sunny Central Florida. There are 100's of homes flooded out around Orlando and Kissimmee in standing water 3-6 feet deep!!! The locations were once swamps that were filled in but still will upwell water from the aquifer if enough rain falls. All the rivers are above flood stage too. Most areas have seen 14-18" just this month with a few areas topping 20-25".
Sincerely,
Thomas Giella
Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
4208 Thackery Way
Plant City, FL, USA 33566
SWFWMD Rainfall Observer #574
NWS Tampa Bay, FL Skywarn Spotter #HIL-249
Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute:
http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm
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