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From: Jesse Ferrell (WeatherMatrix) (jesse{at}weathermatrix.net)
Date: Mon Mar 24 2003 - 20:23:10 EST
Additional information on the chance of severe thunderstorms in Iraq tomorrow:
http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/public/mideast_news.asp?gfx=uf23&partner=6037
http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/public/headlines.asp?iws=5&partner=6037
"Locally intense thunderstorms with strong winds will form over portions of
Iraq Tuesday into Wednesday. The storms will be triggered by a great amount
of instability (heated surface air, cold air aloft). Jet stream energy
feeding into the growing storms will provide the fuel for strong downbursts
and high winds at the ground. "
-AccuWeather.com
>Hello,
>
>A message has been sent to the group from
>
> olli.haukkovaara
>
>The message summary:
>--------------------
>FROM: olli.haukkovaara{at}
>DATE: Tue, 25 Mar 2003 00:35:23 +0200
>SUBJECT: Fwd: Supercells Iraq tomorrow!?
>
>>
>>>From: Oscar van der Velde <{at}>
>>>Date: Mon, 24 Mar 2003 14:27:16 -0800 (PST)
>>>
>>>Hello all,
>>>
>>>the convective weather maps (GFS model data) I produce on a
>>>daily basis for Europe and the globe show a very remarkable
>>>thing for tomorrow: supercell composite parameter values of
>>>over 12 - over southern Iraq and Kuwait!
>>>Looking closer into the situation, the 15Z (6 pm in Iraq) CAPE
>>>shows values of 500-1500 J/kg over southern Iraq and Kuwait,
>>>along with winds SFC: 25 kts SE, 850: 45 kts S, 700: 50 kts
>>>SSW, 500: 65 kts SW. This delivers a SRH of >250 m2/s2 in this
>>>region with a maximum of 750 m2/s2! The 0-6 km shear is over 70
>>>knots.
>>>
>>>The thing is, the storms should be very high based as LCLs are
>>>over 2000 m and LFCs over 3000 m... I don't have any experience
>>>in forecasting such high based storms - will storms form at
>>>all in these conditions? Also, current instability observations
>>>to check instability are lacking, except for very strong shear
>>>profiles currently over Israel. The only place instability
>>>could come from is advection of the Abu Dhabi airmass towards
>>>the north as the cold upper low descends over Iraq. Certainly
>>>an interesting situation....
>>>
>>>Oscar van der Velde
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
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