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WeatherMatrix
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Prohibited. Usage logged.
From: Thomas Giella, KN4LF (kn4lf{at}gbronline.com)
Date: Sun Nov 17 2002 - 11:56:42 EST
Published Sunday 11/17/02 11:00 AM EST
>From 2002-2003 FL Daily Winter Weather Discussion At
http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci17.htm
Quite and El Nino enhanced rainfall event yesterday with 1.75-3.00" totals
recorded south of S.R. 50 and east of U.S. 301 and 4.00-10.00" totals across
the southern 1/3 of the peninsula. A small area north of Fort Myers saw
12.00+" Only the nature coast missed out on the heaviest rains as the El
Nino stoked up sub-tropical jet stream moisture plume was focused over the
south central peninsula. Though the moisture plume did move as far north as
I-4 it moved no further north before the squall line arrived. Here in Plant
City east of Tampa I measured 2.00" of rainfall with a minimum barometric
pressure of 29.71".
As I mentioned yesterday afternoon I underestimated the extent of the
moisture feed, with the associated clouds and rain cooled air preventing low
level instability from developing and therefore fortunately squelched the
anticipated severe weather outbreak. However with the extreme mid and upper
level dynamics in place yesterday, at least two tornadoes touched down on
the central peninsula in Brevard and Polk County's. We dodged a bullet on
this one but unfortunately we will have plenty of El Nino stoked up winter
storms ahead of this season. Our next storm system arrives on
Thursday/Friday 11/22-23/02.
Looking down the road forecast models allude to two high latitude blocks to
form in the 500 mb pattern during the next 10-14 days. This would mean
colder and wetter then normal weather for Florida. Speaking of cold air
advection, it's ongoing on the peninsula today. Temperatures should hold
steady around 60 deg. then fall during the afternoon on the central
peninsula, with colder readings north. Overnight temps. should drop to
around 32 deg. in colder inland rural areas of the central peninsula but t's
a tough call as to how cold it will get the next two nights, as we will have
wind and clouds due to the screaming 165 mph jet stream max overhead.
73,
Thomas Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA
KN4LF 160 meter Amateur Radio Resources & More:
http://www.kn4lf.com
FL Meteorological & Climatic Institute:
http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci.htm
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