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WeatherMatrix
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Prohibited. Usage logged.
From: Thomas Giella, FMCI (fmci{at}tampabay.rr.com)
Date: Wed Sep 18 2002 - 11:25:41 EDT
Isidore is now a tropical storm. It has been slow to grow and strengthen
due to it's proximity first to the South American land mass and then the
major Antilles Islands. As it moves into the Yucatan Basin area today
between western Cuba and the Cayman Islands it's likely to grow rapidly into
a cat 1 hurricane. If it crosses western Cuba rather then going through the
Yucatan Strait it will likely stay a cat 1 hurricane when it moves into the
Gulf Of Mexico WSW of Key West. When it reaches this area sometime on Friday
evening or early Saturday morning? it may grow explosively to a cat 3-4
cyclone as it slowly moves north around the periphery of the surface high
currently along the eastern seaboard. It then may stall or be pulled very
slowly north towards the Florida Panhandle as it's influenced by a passing
500 mb shortwave, then probably turn NE into Florida, as a stronger 500 mb
trough digs south and east into the eastern U.S. For now the whole gulf
coast from Pensacola to Key West and through the keys to Miami are in grave
danger of a major hurricane strike, with the biggest threat right now in my
personal opinion at Ft. Myers/Naples.
Also the state of Florida is so saturated due to unusually heavy summer
rains that a major flood is also a high probability. Just a note. I retired
from professional weather forecasting more then a year ago, so am kind of
rusty nowadays. Basically I'm responding to many emails requesting my
opinion on Isidore.
Take Care,
Thomas Giella, FMCI
Plant City, FL
FL Meteorological & Climatic Institute:
www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci.htm
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