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[STORMREPORTS] Disturbance off NC Coast

From: Jesse Ferrell (WeatherMatrix) (jesse{at}weathermatrix.net)
Date: Mon Aug 19 2002 - 17:26:06 EDT

So I'm staring at this blob off the NC Coast all day today. Some storms
formed last night near VA Beach and tracked offshore, blowing up last
night into an MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) over the Gulf Stream off
the Carolina coast. Not unusual, these huge clusters pop up now and
then over land and sea.

At 10:45am this morning Joe Bastardi of AccuWeather pointed out on a
streaming video that conditions were ripe for development in this area
due to the overall pattern -- the MCS was "suspicious" due to hints that
the European model had about something trying to form this week in the
area.

Around 2-3pm today, it looks like the thing's rotating! Check out the
satellite loop we've linked from our Tropical Center:
http://www.weathermatrix.net/tropical/2002/

Buoy 41000 used to be RIGHT THERE under the thing but looks like it is
now out of commission, no longer maintained by NDBC. Nothing else near
it.
http://www.weathermatrix.net/tropical/surface/interactive.shtml
http://www.weathermatrix.net/tropical/surface/

The only other place anyone else was talking about this online was
NWS-MHX who admits it was a mid-level swirl:

"AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION, NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD
CITY NC, 335 PM EDT MON AUG 19 2002: MID LVL VORT EVIDENT IN VSBL SE OF
CLKN7 WITH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX POSITIONED WELL S OF THE SWIRL
(note, at 3pm it blew up convection at what looked like the center of
the swirl to me)
AND NEWER UPDRAFTS BELOW THE VORTS CNTR. THIS FTR MOVG AWAY AND MAIN
EFFECT IS THROW-BACK CI AND SUBSIDENCE OVER OUR ERN ZONES CURRENTLY."

At 2pm NHC mentioned the existence of the thunderstorms but nothing
else:

"NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCS THAT MOVED OFF THE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA MOVING S...CURRENTLY IN THE AREA FROM 31N TO 33N
BETWEEN 74W AND 77W."

Then at 5:20 (I'm on pins & needles here!) the NHC issues this
statement:
"AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS
NO EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME BUT THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY AND
ERRATICALLY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO."

So in summary... nothing yet, but keep an eye out. 

-- 
================================================================
Jesse Ferrell - Meteorologist & Internet Developer - WeatherMatrix
4000 Weather Enthusiasts Can't Be Wrong! www.weathermatrix.net

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