[STORMREPORTS] Tomorrow's Winter Storm in the Northeast

From: Jesse Ferrell (jesse{at}weathermatrix.net)
Date: Fri Dec 07 2001 - 12:48:44 EST

NOTE: PLEASE post followup model discussion to the WX-FORECAST list as I
don't want to clog up StormReports with it... if you have additional
information on Advisories or

By looking at the Winter Weather Forecast Models on
http://www.weathermatrix.net/forecasts/winter/

And reading some of the discussions, most forecasts seem to be in
agreement AT THIS TIME that there will be THE POTENTIAL FOR significant
snow tomorrow in NY,VT,NH and southern interior New England. There
would seem to be a concentration of moderate to heavy snow from
northeast PA into southeastern NY and western MA. However, I would
caution you that this is a quick analysis on my part and encourage you
to read the discussions linked from the WeatherMatrix Winter Forecasts
page above.

HPC JUST with their last update shifted the heavy snow area south and
west and added an ince area in N. PA:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94swbg.gif

Snowforecast.com (this is a little further north than AccuWeather's
solution):
http://www.snow-forecast.com/v2/appalsnow60.html

AccuWeather Maps & Discusssion:
http://www1.accuweather.com/iwxpage/adc/popup/wx1b/index.htm
http://www.accuweather.com/adcbin/snowice_maps?partner=6037&state=us&type=snowone

In advance of this weather, advisories have been issued for parts of
PA,NY,MA,CT,RI,VT,NH:

http://www.accuweather.com/adcbin/severe_storms?thisZip=&thisSt=NY_&btnst=Go&thisReg=US&nav=home&type=adv&partner=6037

http://www.uswx.com/us/wx/NY/

Additionally... Joe Bastardi of AccuWeather is mentioning the chance of
freezing rain, especially on overpasses in PA & NJ. Though freezing
rain is not expected to be a widespread event, any freezing rain is of
course dangerous. Although road temperatures are high because of the
recent warm weather (I can't tell you the last time it was 32 degrees
here & most PA DOT sites reports 40s and 50s for road temps)
http://208.9.196.31/site/site.nsf/MapFullHTML?OpenPage&BaseTarget=_top
temperatures are expected to be at or below freezing in PA & NJ by
Saturday morning.

MODELS:

The MM5 solution is tending towards more rain:
http://eyewall.met.psu.edu/mm5/pages/accptype.html

AVN is snow:
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/forecasts/ptyp5472.html

IGES AVN/MRF (this is further south):
http://grads.iges.org/pix/east_tomorrow.gif

And ETA is close to the solution that everyone seems to favor.
http://eyewall.met.psu.edu/eta/index.html 

-- 
================================================================
Jesse Ferrell - Meteorologist/Web Dev. - jesse{at}weathermatrix.net 
WeatherMatrix |||| http://www.weathermatrix.net/ |||| ICQ 136832

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