Below is a portion of SPC discussion for tomorrow:
..PENNSYLVANIA...
INCREASING SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE EJECTING SHORT WAVE WILL
TRANSPORT INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO SRN AND ERN PA
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. ETA IS FCSTG 2M DEWPOINTS NEAR 60F ACROSS
SERN PA AND THIS APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS AS
FAR NORTH AS NRN VA ATTM. COMBINATION OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT...
DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING...AND STRONG MID LEVEL DRYING SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY (CAPE OF 250-500 J/KG)
DEVELOPING WITHIN AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. INTENSE CYCLONIC SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL FOCUS
STRONG ASCENT AND POTENTIAL FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
ADVANCING FRONT AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. INTENSE LOW LEVEL SHEAR EVIDENT ON FCST WIND PROFILES
SUPPORTS AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT...WHILE CONVECTIVE MIXING MAY
BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING 45-50 KT LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE SURFACE. THUS
A LOW PROBABILITY THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE EXISTS AND THIS AREA MAY
REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
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