NORTHEAST SUMMER INCREASES HURRICANE FLOOD THREAT
With much of southern New York and northeast Pennsylvania still soggy from an
> unusually wet summer, the National Weather Service is wary of the increased
> threat of flooding from hurricanes and tropical storms. "The earth's
> ability to absorb heavy rain has certainly been limited by the unusually
> wet summer we've had so far here in the northeast," said Sol Summer,
> hydrology chief for the NWS Eastern Region. "The wet conditions would make
> flooding from a hurricane or tropical storm that much worse." According to
> the hydrologist, the ability of soil to absorb additional moisture, and the
> higher levels of rivers, lakes, and streams, are key factors in the
> increased flood potential this hurricane season. Cooler temperatures and
> increased cloud cover are also affecting local conditions as evaporation
> has been slowed and more water is staying on the ground. "Last year, we
> were looking at drought conditions and many areas were actually hoping for
> a dose of tropical moisture," the hydrologist explained. "This year, there
> is so much water around, it would be difficult to absorb a heavy rain which
> could result in flash floods and river floods," Summer said. "And keep in
> mind, extensive flooding from Hurricane Floyd last year occurred when the
> region was experiencing drought conditions," Summer added. "If a storm
> similar to Hurricane Floyd were to make landfall now, you would see not
> only localized flooding and flash flooding, but many of the main stem
> rivers could overflow their banks as well." Much of the northeast from New
> England south through southern New York, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey have
> above average soil moisture, while parts of Maryland, Delaware, Virginia
> and West Virginia are slightly wetter than normal. These areas are in stark
> contrast to the south, the west, and parts of the midwestern U.S. which are
> still grappling with abnormally dry conditions, the Weather Service said.
> Example's of the wet conditions can be found throughout the northeast: New
> Jersey's Lake Hopatcong, for instance, was at its highest level since
> record keeping began 114 years ago breaking the previous record set during
> Hurricane Diane in 1955. The Delaware River at Trenton, N.J. is flowing at
> a rate 250 percent above normal for this time of the year and the Passaic
> River at Little Falls, N.J. is at 90 percent higher than normal. Streamflow
> at Montague, N.Y. on the upper Delaware River is 237 percent of normal and
> the Susquehanna River is 169 percent of normal at Wilkes-Barre, Pa. More
> telling is the state of the region's water supply, noted George McKillop,
> NWS Service Hydrologist for New York and New Jersey. The northeast New
> Jersey reservoir system is holding an estimated 76 billion gallons of
> water, which is about 94 percent of capacity. "The reservoir system is
> holding about 20.5 billion gallons, or 20 percent, more than last year
> right before Hurricane Floyd hit," McKillop noted. The New York City
> reservoir system is at 96 percent of capacity, which is 12 percent above
> normal for this time of the year. "The lingering effects of La Nina are the
> culprit in this situation," said Ants Leetmaa, director of the Climate
> Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Md. "La Nina first brought persistent
> wet and cool weather conditions to the Northeast leading to soggy
> conditions and now is expected to possibly bring enhanced rainfall through
> an above normal tropical storm outlook for this hurricane season." The
> Weather Service cautioned that freshwater flooding from tropical rain can
> occur hundreds of miles inland and can be as dangerous as the storm surge
> normally associated with hurricanes as they come ashore. "With flooding one
> of the leading causes of weather related deaths in the United States,
> coastal residents and those living well inland should always be wary of
> rising waters," Summer said. "Particular caution should be taken while
> driving in flooded areas since more than half of the country's flood
> related deaths take place in vehicles." National Weather Service
> information on hurricane development, flood threats, and weather forecasts
> and warnings can be obtained through a number of sources including NOAA
> Weather Radio and the Internet <A HREF="http://www.nws.noaa.gov/">http://www.nws.noaa.gov>
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