The USA Disaster Situation Report
The Daily USA Disaster Situation Report
For April 14, 2001
Christopher Effgen, Editor, host{at}disastercenter.com
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IN THIS ISSUE
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=> USA Daily Temperature Extremes
=> Special Notes
=> Current Active National Weather Service Warnings:
=> Severe Weather Probability Forecast
=> Precipitation Forecast, Excessive Rainfall, Heavy Snow And/Or Significant
Icing Forecast
=> USA Flood Report
=> USA Fire Report and Forecast
=> USA Earthquake Report
=> Yesterday's USA Severe Weather Reports
=> Guest Column-
=> Sponsored by The Rothstein Catalog On Disaster Recovery
**** ARTICLES ****
=> Article Volcano Watch - April 12, 2001 Volcanoes exempt from capital
gains
=> Article ALASKA VOLCANO OBSERVATORY Weekly Update
=> Article Washington Drought Update: Underground Water Could Be A Victim,
Too
=> Article FAA -- United States Moves Closer to Accident Reduction Goal
=> Article Mennonite Disaster Service Update
=> Classified Ads
=> Links Area
=> How to Be Featured as our Guest Columnist
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Sponsored by the The Rothstein Catalog On Disaster Recovery
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=> Subscribe/Unsubscribe information
The Daily USA Disaster Situation Report
For April 14, 2001
Christopher Effgen, Editor, host{at}disastercenter.com
------------------------------------------------------------
IN THIS ISSUE
------------------------------------------------------------
=> USA Daily Temperature Extremes
National Temperature Extremes
High Fri...97 At Harlingen TX
Low Sat...15 At Stanley ID
=> Special Notes
=> Current Active National Weather Service Warnings:
Active Warnings are no longer being provided to see current warning please
go to:
U.S. National Weather Service's Active Warning's page
http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/graphicsversion/bigmain.html
=> Severe Weather Probability Forecast
The forecast probability of an event is by the stated percentage or greater
for the event, within 25 miles of any point for the area described.
Tornado Risk - Moderate
The 10% probability area for an F2 or greater Tornado covers extreme central
north through
extreme north northeast Texas, and the south east 1/3 of Oklahoma.
There is a 2% probability of a tornado over central southwest through
central north and northeast
Texas, Oklahoma except the panhandle, the south southwest 1/3 of Kansas,
central through central
west and southwest Missouri, extreme northwest, far west southwest and far
south southwest
Arkansas, northern Louisiana, and southwest Mississippi.
The 5% probability area covers west central through north central and north
northeast Texas,
Oklahoma except the panhandle and the central east areas, south southeast
Kansas, and extreme
west south west Missouri.
The 15% probability area covers extreme central north through extreme north
northeast Texas, and
the south east 1/3 of Oklahoma.
Hail Risk - Moderately Severe
The 10% probability area for hail 2 inches or larger covers extreme central
north Texas, and the
west southwest 1/3 of Oklahoma.
There is a 5% probability of hail 3/4 inch or larger over central southwest
through central north and
northeast Texas, Oklahoma except the panhandle, the south southwest 3/5 of
Kansas, Missouri
except the extreme northern area, Arkansas except the extreme central east
area, west southwest
Illinois, the north northeast 2/5 of Louisiana, and the southwest 3/5 of
Mississippi except the extreme
southeast area. Also the north northwest 1/2 of Nebraska except the far
western area, the southwest
2/5 of South Dakota, and central west south west Minnesota
The 15% probability area covers central southwest through central north and
northeast Texas,
Oklahoma except the panhandle, the south southwest 1/3 of Kansas, central
through central west
and southwest Missouri, extreme northwest, far west southwest and far south
southwest Arkansas,
north northeast Louisiana, and the southwest 1/3 of Mississippi.
The 25% probability area covers central north Texas, Oklahoma except the far
eastern and
panhandle areas, and the south southeast 1/4 of Kansas.
The 35% probability area covers extreme central north Texas, Oklahoma except
the eastern 1/4 and
the northwestern area, and extreme central south Kansas.
Wind Risk - Moderately Severe
There is a 5% probability of winds in excess of 50 knots over central
southwest through central
north and northeast Texas, Oklahoma except the panhandle, the south
southwest 3/5 of Kansas,
Missouri except the extreme northern area, Arkansas except the extreme
central east area, west
southwest Illinois, the north northeast 2/5 of Louisiana, and the southwest
3/5 of Mississippi except
the extreme southeast area. Also the north northwest 1/2 of Nebraska except
the far western area,
the southwest 2/5 of South Dakota, and central west south west Minnesota
The 15% probability area covers central southwest through central north and
northeast Texas,
Oklahoma except the panhandle, the south southwest 1/3 of Kansas, central
through central west
and southwest Missouri, extreme northwest, far west southwest and far south
southwest Arkansas,
north northeast Louisiana, and the southwest 1/3 of Mississippi.
The 25% probability area covers central north Texas, Oklahoma except the far
eastern and
panhandle areas, and the south southeast 1/4 of Kansas.
Tomorrow's Risk -
There is a 5% probability of any severe weather tomorrow over the northeast
1/4 of Texas, the
southwest 1/3 of Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana except the far southern area,
Mississippi,
Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, far north northwest Florida, extreme
southeastern Missouri,
Tennessee except the north northeast area, and the extreme south southwest
parts of North
Carolina.
The 15% probability area covers north east and central east Texas, southeast
Oklahoma, Arkansas
except the far northern area, the north 1/2 of Louisiana, Mississippi except
the extreme southern
area, Alabama except the extreme southern area, Georgia except the extreme
southern area, the
southwest 1/3 of South Carolina, and south southwest Tennessee.
Day Three's Risk -
There is less than a 5% probability of any severe weather.
=> Precipitation Forecast, Excessive Rainfall, Heavy Snow And/Or
Significant
Icing Forecast
Precipitation Forecast
The 24 hour precipitation forecast
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98q.gif
The 24 - 48 hour precipitation forecast
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94e.gif
Excessive Rainfall Forecast - Today
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/93s.gif
USA heavy snow and/or significant icing
>From noon to midnight today EST
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/93s.gif
>From midnight to noon tomorrow EST
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94s.gif
Current USA Snow and Ice Cover
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/us_NESDISsnow.gif
=> USA Flood Report
not updated
=> USA Fire Report and Forecast
INCIDENT MANAGEMENT SITUATION REPORT FRIDAY, APRIL 13, 2001 - 1000 MDT
NATIONAL PREPAREDNESS LEVEL 1
CURRENT SITUATION:
A total of nine new large fires were reported this past week in the
Southern, Southwest, Eastern and
Rocky Mountain Areas. Initial attack activity is moderate in the Southern
Area and light elsewhere in
the nation. Major flooding is occurring in Minnesota and the Dakotas along
the Mississippi, Red, Big
Sioux, and James rivers due to heavy rainfall combined with melting snow.
SOUTHERN AREA LARGE FIRES:
RED GRANGE COMMAND, Florida Division of Forestry. This fire is in Polk
County, FL.
Evacuations are in place, though some residents have been allowed to return
to their homes.
POINSETTIA, Florida Division of Forestry. The fire is located in Martin
County, FL. No other
information was reported.
CORBETT, Florida Division of Forestry. The fire is in Palm Beach County, FL.
BIG BUCK, Florida Division of Forestry. The fire is burning in Bradford
County, FL.
OUTLOOK:
A weak weather system should bring showers to the Pacific Northwest. High
pressure will dominate
the remainder of the region resulting in dry and warm conditions from
California to the Rockies and
over the desert Southwest. High temperatures will range from the 30's to
40's across the northern
Rockies, 50's across most of the Pacific Northwest, and 60's in California
to the 80's in the
Southwest.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected over the north and central Plains as
a weak storm system
moves through the area. High pressure will settle over the Mississippi
Valley and up to the Great
Lakes. The daytime high temperatures will be in the 30's for the northern
portion of the region, 60's
to 70's across much of the Ohio Valley, and in the 80's across Texas.
High pressure over Tennessee will push a weather front over northern Florida
throughout the day.
This will bring cooler temperatures to most of the Southern Area, with 70's
to the north of the cold
front and 80's to the south.
The heavy rains in the Northeast should end today, though some showers may
persist across Maine.
Conditions will become breezy and cooler as the low pressure system moves
east. Daytime high
temperatures will range from the mid 40's over northern Maine, to the 50's
and 60's over the rest of
the New England states, and in the 70's from New York to Washington DC.
=> USA Earthquake Report
UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY
NATIONAL EARTHQUAKE INFORMATION CENTER
GOLDEN, COLORADO
LISTS OF U.S. EARTHQUAKES IN THE LAST 30 HOURS
Prepared by USGS/NEIC 2001 APR 14 at 00:15 UTC
EARTHQUAKES IN SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
(29.0 TO 35.8 N, 102.0 TO 125.0 W)
Date Time (UTC) Lat Long Depth Magnitude
2001 APR 13 11:50:12.00 33.9 N 117.7 W 4 km 3.5
10 miles NE of Santa Ana, California
EARTHQUAKES IN WEST CENTRAL UNITED STATES
(35.8 TO 40.3 N, 102.0 TO 125.0 W)
Date Time (UTC) Lat Long Depth Magnitude
2001 APR 13 02:48:42.00 36.0 N 120.5 W 10 km 3.4
15 miles SSW of Coalinga, California
2001 APR 13 08:34:08.00 38.8 N 122.8 W 1 km 3.4
15 miles SW of Clearlake, California
Magnitude : 3.5 Ml
Time : 13 Apr 2001 04:50:12 AM PDT
Location : 5 mi. ESE of Yorba Linda, CA
=> Yesterday's USA Severe Weather Reports
Note: All data is considered preliminary
Tornado Reports
No reports received
Hail Reports
No reports received
Wind Reports
No reports received
Fields marked UNK are unknown
All Times UTC
Wind Gusts in MPH
Hail Sizes in 1/100 of an Inch (75 = 0.75")
=> Guest Column
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**** ARTICLES ****
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=> Volcano Watch - April 12, 2001 Volcanoes exempt from capital gains
Here's a riddle for you-which large land holder on the Big Island
condemns property at will, holds liens on large parts of the island, and
doesn't pay a cent of taxes? Kilauea Volcano has seized a lot of real
estate in the last 18 years, but, unlike the rest of us, won't be
struggling with tax forms this weekend.
To date, the eruption that began in 1983 has covered about 102 sq km
(40 sq miles) of preexisting land. Forty percent of that land is inside
Hawai`i Volcanoes National Park. Another 35 percent belongs to the State,
including large parcels of forest reserve and natural area reserve. Only
25 percent of the property covered by this eruption is privately held,
though it included hundreds of house lots.
Most of the private property is near Kilauea's southern coastline,
where the eruption has added about 206 hectares (510 acres) of new land to
the island. The biggest chunk of this lies outboard of the sites of Harry
K. Brown Park and Kaimu black sand beach, where a plain of pahoehoe
extended the coastline seaward by as much as 0.6 km (0.4 mi). The new land
belongs to the State, under the terms of a 1977 Hawaii Supreme Court
decision in the case of the State of Hawaii vs. Zimring. The disputed land
in this case was 7.9 acres formed by the 1955 eruption of Kilauea, which
sent a lava flow into the ocean at Kehena.
The largest remaining kipuka within the flow field contains the
remains of Royal Gardens subdivision, which is located on the steep slope
of Pulama pali. Royal Gardens was the scene of the first house to be
claimed by lava during this eruption, back in early 1983. It is also the
scene of the latest destruction--four long-abandoned houses were overrun in
the last year.
If ever property were subject to a lien by the volcano, it's Royal
Gardens. The subdivision has the dubious distinction of being the only
inhabited area to be impacted by all three of the main epochs of this
eruption. From 1983 through 1985, lava flows from the central vent at Pu`u
`O`o overran the upper slopes of the subdivision. The eruption shifted 3
km (1.9 mi) northeast to the Kupaianaha vent in 1986, and for the next five
years, flows whittled away at the eastern side of the subdivision and
wrapped around its lower end. In early 1992, Kupaianaha died, and the
eruption returned to flank vents on the southwest slope of the Pu`u `O`o
cone. Since then, flows approaching from the west have encroached on the
lower end of the subdivision, merging with the Kupaianaha flows on the
coastal plain. This activity is continuing today.
Most of the land claimed by the volcano during this eruption has been
buried and reburied many times over in the last 18 years, some of it to a
depth of 25 m (80 ft) or more. Currently, surface flows are pushing
eastward on the coastal plain, repaving ground that was first buried in
1989-91 by pahoehoe from Kupaianaha.
Lava hasn't entered the ocean since January of this year, but the
broad surface flows are gradually making their way toward the ocean near
the eastern boundary of the National Park. As of April 12, active lava was
within 400 m (1300 ft) of the shoreline, but judging from its behavior in
the last two months, it's in no hurry to get there.
No earthquakes were reported felt during the week ending on April 12,
2001.
This article was written by scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey's
Hawaiian Volcano Observatory.
=> ALASKA VOLCANO OBSERVATORY Weekly Update
Friday, April 13, 2001 10:00 AM ADT (1800 UTC)
CLEVELAND VOLCANO (CAVW #1101-24)
52°49'N 169°57'W Summit Elevation 5,674 ft (1,730 m)
Unrest at Cleveland Volcano in the east-central Aleutians continues.
Satellite analysis last confidently detected a thermal anomaly in the
vicinity of the volcano on April 8th; the volcano was largely obscured by
clouds during the rest of the week. Low-level pulses of volcanic tremor,
likely related to activity at Cleveland, were detected on several occasions
during the last week by an AVO seismic network 230 km to the east of the
volcano. AVO has received no reports of significant activity from pilots or
residents of Nikolski and no further explosive activity has been observed
in satellite images since the last eruption on March 19.
Based on these data and the historical pattern of repeated, sudden
explosions at Cleveland extending over a period of months, additional
ash-producing eruptions could occur at any time. In addition, movement of
recently erupted material from the steep flanks of Cleveland may produce
small, localized ash plumes and avalanches into the sea.
AVO does not assign a color code to Cleveland because of the lack of a
seismic network immediately around the volcano. We continue to monitor the
situation closely by satellite, through careful analysis of more distant
seismic station data, and by phone contact with air and ground observers in
the region.
OTHER ALASKA VOLCANOES
Seismic activity is monitored in real time at 22 volcanoes in Alaska.
Satellite images of all Alaskan volcanoes are analyzed daily for evidence
of ash plumes and elevated surface temperatures. Some volcanoes may
currently display anomalous behavior without being considered to be at a
dangerous level of unrest.
Spurr, Redoubt, Iliamna, Augustine, Snowy, Griggs, Katmai, Novarupta,
Trident, Mageik, Martin, Aniakchak, Pavlof, Dutton, Isanotski, Shishaldin,
Fisher, Westdahl, Akutan, Makushin, Great Sitkin, and Kanaga volcanoes are
all at or near normal levels of background seismicity. AVO did not detect
ash plumes or significant elevated surface temperatures in the vicinity of
any volcano.
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GPS receiver picks up satellite signals and uses them to pinpoint your
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FREE 30 days of StormWarn by Email, Pager, PCS/GSM Phone, Business Fax at no
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Sign up today and you'll receive no obligation, no commitment StormWarn . If
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=> Links Area
SNOW COVER OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
Colorado, Wyoming, and Nebraska
This experimental false color NOAA-16 image distinguishes clouds (white)
from the recent snow
cover (yellow) in the western High Plains. The storm that moved through the
area on Wednesday
dumped well over a foot of snow in the mountainous areas of Wyoming and
Colorado with lesser
amounts in the foothills. The storm caused a section of Interstate-80 to be
shut down outside
Cheyenne, Wyoming and for several hours caused Denver International Airport
to close. In parts of
Nebraska the storm dumped over 6 inches of wet snow which knocked out power
to many towns
and closed schools.
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Snow/US_Plains/SNWusPL103_N6.jpg
FIRES IN CUBA
Cuba
Heat signatures (red) and smoke (light blue haze) are visible from fires
burning in Cuba.
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Fires/Cuba/FSMHScuba103_N4.jpg
FIRES IN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA
North Carolina and South Carolina
Heat signatures (red) and smoke (light blue haze) are visible from fires
burning in North Carolina and
South Carolina. The yellow arrows denote the locations of the fires.
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Fires/US_Southeast/FSMHSusSE103_N4.jpg
DUST OVER NORTH AFRICA
Libya and Egypt
This movie shows airborne dust (indicated by the yellow arrows) propagating
off the Coast of Libya
and Egypt over the Mediterranean Sea. Click anywhere on image to start the
loop.
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Dust/Africa_E/DSTafr103_MT.avi
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