[STORMREPORTS] USASitRep: Severe Weather Probability forecast for April 11th As of midnight

From: owner-sitrep{at}disastercenter.com
Date: Wed Apr 11 2001 - 03:23:32 EDT


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The USA Disaster Situation Report
Tornado Risk - Moderate
There is a 2% probability of a tornado over eastern Oklahoma, the northeast
1/2 of Kansas, the
southeast 1/2 of Nebraska, extreme southeast South Dakota, south southeast
Minnesota, Wisconsin
except the extreme northwest area, Michigan, the western 1/3 of New York,
the northwest 2/3 of
New York, extreme northwest Maryland, far northern West Virginia, Ohio
except the extreme
southern area, Indiana, north northwest Kentucky, extreme northwest
Tennessee, extreme northwest
Mississippi, Arkansas except the extreme south southwest area, Missouri,
Illinois, and Iowa.
The 5% probability area covers extreme central north Arkansas, east
northeast Kansas, far eastern
Nebraska, far southeastern Minnesota, Wisconsin except the northeastern 1/3
of the state, extreme
west southwest Michigan, west northwest Indiana, Illinois except the east
southeast area, Missouri
except the far southeast area, and Iowa except the extreme northwest area.
The 15% probability area covers Iowa except the far northwest area, the
northern 1/3 of Missouri,
and the west northwest 1/3 of Illinois.

   Hail Risk - Severe
The 10% probability area for severe hail, 2 inches or larger, covers Iowa
except the extreme
northwest area, far southeast Minnesota, Wisconsin except the northwest
area, far central west
through far southwest Michigan, northwest Indiana, central and northern
Illinois, and northern
Missouri.
There is a 5% probability of hail 3/4 inch or larger over far northeast
Texas, the eastern 1/3 of
Oklahoma, Kansas except the south southwest area, Nebraska except the
northwest 1/3, souteast
South Dakota, the southeast 1/2 of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, New York
except the east
southeast area, Pennsylvania except the far east southeast area, far
northwest Virgina, West Virginia
except the extreme southern area, Kentucky except the southeast area, the
northwes 2/3 of
Tennessee, northwest Alabama, the northwest 2/3 of Mississippi, the
northeast 1/3 of Louisiana,
Arkansas, Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana.
The 15% probability area covers eastern Oklahoma, the northeast 1/2 of
Kansas, the southeast 1/2
of Nebraska, extreme southeast South Dakota, south southeast Minnesota,
Wisconsin except the
extreme northwest area, Michigan, the western 1/3 of New York, the northwest
2/3 of New York,
extreme northwest Maryland, far northern West Virginia, Ohio except the
extreme southern area,
Indiana, north northwest Kentucky, extreme northwest Tennessee, extreme
northwest Mississippi,
Arkansas except the extreme south southwest area, Missouri, Illinois, and
Iowa.
The 25% probability area covers Iowa except the extreme northwest area, far
southeast Minnesota,
Wisconsin except the northwest area, Michigan except the northwest portion
of the northern
penisula, the northwest 1/4 of Indiana, central and northern Illinois, and
northern Missouri.
The 35% probability area covers Iowa except the far northwest area, extreme
southeast Minnesota,
Wisconsin except the northern area, far central west through far southwest
Michigan, the extreme
northwest area of Indiana, the northern 1/2 of Illinois, and far north
northeast Missouri.
The 45% probability area covers central and eastern Iowa, extreme southeast
Minnesota, the
southeast 1/4 of Wisconsin, far northwest Illinois.

   Wind Risk - Severe
There is a 10% probability of severe winds in excess of 65 knots that covers
Iowa except the
extreme northwest area, far southeast Minnesota, Wisconsin except the
northwest area, far central
west through far southwest Michigan, northwest Indiana, central and northern
Illinois, and northern
Missouri.
There is a 5% probability of winds in excess of 50 knots that covers far
northeast Texas, the eastern
1/3 of Oklahoma, Kansas except the south southwest area, Nebraska except the
northwest 1/3,
souteast South Dakota, the southeast 1/2 of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan,
New York except the
east southeast area, Pennsylvania except the far east southeast area, far
northwest Virgina, West
Virginia except the extreme southern area, Kentucky except the southeast
area, the northwes 2/3 of
Tennessee, northwest Alabama, the northwest 2/3 of Mississippi, the
northeast 1/3 of Louisiana,
Arkansas, Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana.
The 15% probability area covers eastern Oklahoma, the northeast 1/2 of
Kansas, the southeast 1/2
of Nebraska, extreme southeast South Dakota, south southeast Minnesota,
Wisconsin except the
extreme northwest area, Michigan, the western 1/3 of New York, the northwest
2/3 of New York,
extreme northwest Maryland, far northern West Virginia, Ohio except the
extreme southern area,
Indiana, north northwest Kentucky, extreme northwest Tennessee, extreme
northwest Mississippi,
Arkansas except the extreme south southwest area, Missouri, Illinois, and
Iowa.
The 25% probability area covers Iowa except the extreme northwest area, far
southeast Minnesota,
Wisconsin except the northwest area, Michigan except the northwest portion
of the northern
penisula, the northwest 1/4 of Indiana, central and northern Illinois, and
northern Missouri.
The 35% probability area covers Iowa except the far northwest area, extreme
southeast Minnesota,
Wisconsin except the northern area, far central west through far southwest
Michigan, the extreme
northwest area of Indiana, the northern 1/2 of Illinois, and far north
northeast Missouri.
The 45% probability area covers central and eastern Iowa, extreme southeast
Minnesota, the
southeast 1/4 of Wisconsin, far northwest Illinois.

The information presented here is not authoritative.
It contains preliminary and partial information reports. It is intended to serve as a general daily digest of disaster related reports. Any other use is not intended or authorized.

The Disaster Center is a partner with CASI - Central Atlantic Storm Investigators. CASI is a group of over a thousand amateur and professional meteorologists, storm spotters, and weather observers from around the world dedicated to the observation and documentation of weather events
http://www.weatherwatchers.org

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