The USA Disaster Situation Report
The Daily USA Disaster Situation Report
For February 15, 2001
Christopher Effgen, Editor, host{at}disastercenter.com
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IN THIS ISSUE
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=> USA Daily Temperature Extremes
=> Special Notes
=> Current Active National Weather Service Warnings:
=> Severe Weather Probability Forecast
=> Precipitation Forecast, Excessive Rainfall, Heavy Snow And/Or Significant
Icing Forecast
=> USA Flood Report
=> USA Fire Report and Forecast
=> USA Earthquake Report
=> Yesterday's USA Severe Weather Reports
=> Guest Column-
=> Sponsored by The Rothstein Catalog On Disaster Recovery
**** ARTICLES ****
=> Article National Drought Summary -- February 13, 2001
=> Article GVP/USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report 7-13 February 2001
=> Article Action by Churches Together (ACT) Alert - Sudan 1 - 2001
=> Article American Heart Month --- February 2001
=> Article Coronary Heart Disease The Leading Cause Of Death In The United
States
=> Classified Ads
=> Links Area
=> How to Be Featured as our Guest Columnist
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The Daily USA Disaster Situation Report
For February 15, 2001
Christopher Effgen, Editor, host{at}disastercenter.com
------------------------------------------------------------
IN THIS ISSUE
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=> USA Daily Temperature Extremes
National Temperature Extremes
High Wed...88 At Naples FL
Low Thu...24 Below Zero At Mora MN
=> Special Notes
=> Current Active National Weather Service Warnings:
Active Warnings:
Updated Thu Feb 15 11:40:03 2001
Flash Flood
Arkansas
Kentucky
Missouri
Tennessee
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN
KENTUCKY FOR TODAY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TODAY AND FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY...
Flood
Arkansas
WHITE RIVER POSSIBLY RISING TO STAGES NOT SEEN IN SEVERAL YEARS...
AT NEWPORT, STAGE WAS 8.8 FEET AT 8 AM. FORECASTED TO CREST NEAR 26
FEET SUNDAY. FLOOD STAGE IS 26 FEET.
AT AUGUSTA, STAGE WAS 18.4 FEET AT 9 AM. FORECASTED TO CREST NEAR
32.5 FEET MONDAY. FLOOD STAGE IS 26 FEET.
AT GEORGETOWN, STAGE WAS 6.9 FEET AT 8 AM. FORECASTED TO CREST NEAR
21.0 FEET TUESDAY. FLOOD STAGE IS 26 FEET. A HIGH LITTLE RED RIVER
IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH WHITE RIVER STAGES MAY CAUSE EXTRA
FLOODING IN THE GEORGETOWN VICINITY.
FOR THE LITTLE RED RIVER AT JUDSONIA, STAGE WAS 21.4 FEET AT 8 AM.
FORECASTED TO CREST NEAR 30.0 FEET AT EARLY TOMORROW. FLOOD STAGE
IS 30 FEET. MINOR OVERBANK FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED.
FOR THE LITTLE RED RIVER AT JUDSONIA, MINOR OVERBANK FLOODING CAN
BE EXPECTED
OUACHITA RIVER TO EXCEED FLOOD STAGE AT CAMDEN AND CALION...
BLACK RIVER TO EXCEED FLOOD STAGE...
FOR THE BLACK RIVER AT BLACK ROCK, STAGE WAS 8.8 FEET AT 5 AM.
FORECASTED TO CREST NEAR 23.0 FEET EARLY SATURDAY. FLOOD STAGE IS 14
FEET.
FOR THE SPRING RIVER AT IMBODEN, STAGE WAS 13.6 FEET AT 7 AM.
FORECASTED TO CREST NEAR 20.0 FEET EARLY TOMORROW. FLOOD STAGE IS
18 FEET.
FOR THE ARKANSAS RIVER AT MORRILTON, STAGE WAS 17.9 FEET AT 4 AM.
FORECASTED TO CREST NEAR 31 FEET NOON FRIDAY. FLOOD STAGE IS 30
FEET.
FOR THE FOURCHE LAFAVE RIVER NEAR HOUSTON THE STAGE WAS 25.2 FEET
AT 5 AM. FORECASTED TO CREST ABOVE 33 FEET OVERNIGHT TOMORROW.
FLOOD STAGE IS 25 FEET.
PETIT JEAN RIVER AT DANVILLE IS RISING FAST...
THE STAGE WAS 17.7 FEET AT 4 AM. FORECASTED TO CREST OVER 23 FEET
AROUND NOON TOMORROW. FLOOD STAGE IS 20 FEET. AT A STAGE OF 24 FEET
HIGHWAYS 80 AND HWY 27 MIGHT FLOOD.
Indiana
Ohio
FLOODING RETURNS TO PORTIONS OF THE ST. MARYS AND MAUMEE RIVERS...
Kentucky
FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE GREEN RIVER AND ROUGH RIVER IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY
MINOR FLOODING
Louisiana
Texas
FOR THE SABINE RIVER SOUTH OF MINEOLA TEXAS...THE LATEST STAGE WAS
12.9 FEET MEASURED DURING 7 AM THURSDAY. DUE TO EXPECTED RAINFALL
THROUGHOUT THIS THURSDAY AND ALSO DURING THIS THURSDAY NIGHT...A
NEW RISE WILL DEVELOP ON THE RIVER DURING FRIDAY AND THROUGHOUT
THIS WEEKEND.
FOR THE BLACK CYPRESS BAYOU NORTH OF JEFFERSON TEXAS...THE LATEST
STAGE WAS 11.8 FEET MEASURED DURING 6 AM THURSDAY. DUE TO EXPECTED
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL DURING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...EXPECT THE
BAYOU TO SLOWLY RISE AND CREST NEAR 13.5 FEET DURING TUESDAY
FOR THE WHITE OAK CREEK SOUTH OF TALCO TEXAS...THE LATEST STAGE WAS
13.1 FEET MEASURED DURING 6 AM THURSDAY. DUE TO EXPECTED
RAINFALL...THE CREEK WILL RISE AND CREST NEAR 17.0 FEET DURING SUNDAY
Michigan
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE KALAMAZOO RIVER NEAR FENNVILLE. THIS
WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL THE RIVER FALLS BELOW ITS FLOOD
STAGE.
Oklahoma
FOR THE ILLINOIS RIVER NEAR WATTS... THE LATEST STAGE IS 11.1 FEET AT
8 AM THURSDAY. MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST
FOR THE ILLINOIS RIVER NEAR TAHLEQUAH... THE LATEST STAGE IS 5.4 FEET
AT 4 AM THURSDAY. MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST
RIVER FLOOD WARNING ISSUED FOR THE POTEAU RIVER NEAR PANAMA...
Tennessee
RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR THE HARPETH RIVER AT KINGSTON SPRINGS...
Non Precipitation
Hawaii
A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
Winter Storm
Idaho
HEAVY SNOW WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR THE CLEARWATER
MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO...THE BITTERROOT AND SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS...LOWER
CLARK FORK AND BLACKFOOT REGIONS IN WESTERN MONTANA...
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY
MORNING.
Kansas
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY...
AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE DAY IN
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
Minnesota
SOUTHERN COOK/NORTH SHORE MN-..LAKE SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT
TODAY...
Missouri
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS MORNING THROUGH
TONIGHT...
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TODAY...LEADING TO SOME ICE
ACCUMULATIONS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL TOTAL AROUND ONE TENTH
INCH OR LESS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER EVEN MINOR
ACCUMUALTIONS CAN CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ON
UNTREATED ROADWAYS.
Montana
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR TODAY FOR THE KOOTENAI/CABINET...WEST
GLACIER AND THE BLACKFOOT REGION...
HEAVY SNOW WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR THE CLEARWATER
MOUNTAINS
OF IDAHO...THE BITTERROOT AND SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS...LOWER CLARK FORK
AND BLACKFOOT REGIONS IN WESTERN MONTANA...
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY TODAY FOR NORTHWEST MONTANA...
Oklahoma
PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA TODAY AND TONIGHT...
Oregon
Washington
WINTER STORM WATCH TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TONIGHT OVER
THE KITTITAS AND YAKIMA VALLEYS...THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN...AND THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. BY FRIDAY MORNING...ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY LATE WINTER SNOW EXISTS LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO. AN ARCTIC
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TO SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING TO COLDER AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS TODAY.
Wyoming
SNOW ADVISORY AND HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL MONTANA AND SHERIDAN COUNTY WYOMING FOR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY...
=> Severe Weather Probability Forecast
The forecast probability of an event is by the stated percentage or greater
for the event, within 25 miles of any point for the area described.
Tornado Risk - Slight
There is less than a 2% probability of a tornado.
Hail Risk - Slight
There is less than a 5% probability of hail 3/4 inch or larger.
Wind Risk - Slight
There is less than a 5% probability of winds in excess of 50 knots.
Tomorrow's Risk -
There is a 5% probability of any severe weather tomorrow over southeast
Louisiana, the southeast
1/4 of Mississippi, Alabama except the extreme northwest area, southeast
Tennessee, extreme
southwest North Carolina, the west southwest 2/3 of Georgia, and the Florida
panhandle.
=> Precipitation Forecast, Excessive Rainfall, Heavy Snow And/Or
Significant
Icing Forecast
Precipitation Forecast
The 24 hour precipitation forecast is calling for over 3 inches of
precipitation over in a band from
southwest through northeast Arkansas, extreme southeast Missouri, far
northwest Tennessee, and
far south southwest Kentucky.
Over an inch of rainfall is forecast over northeast Texas, southeast
Oklahoma, northwest Louisiana,
south southwest Missouri, Arkansas, northwest Mississippi, the northwest 1/2
of Tennessee,
Kentucky, southern Illinois, southern Indiana, extreme southern Ohio, and
central west West
Virginia.
The 24 - 48 hour precipitation forecast is calling for 1 inch of
precipitation over extreme northeast
Arkansas, the northwest 1/2 of Tennessee, Kentucky except the southeast and
north northwest
areas, eastern West Virginia, extreme south southeast Pennsylvania, central
and northern Maryland,
northern Delaware, and the southern 1/2 of New Jersey
Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Rainfall may exceed flash flood values over northeast Texas, far southeast
Oklahoma, northwest
Louisiana, southwest Missouri, Arkansas, far northwest Mississippi, the
northwest 1/2 of Tennessee,
Kentucky except the eastern area, southern Illinois, and extreme southern
Indiana.
USA heavy snow and/or significant icing
>From noon to midnight today EST the probability of 4 inches or greater of
snow is less than 20%
The probability of 1/4 inch or greater of ice accumulation is low over
extreme central north Texas,
Oklahoma except the southeast and northwest 1/2 of the state, extreme
southeast Kansas, central
through southwest Missouri and extreme northwest Arkansas.
The moderate probability area is over south central through northeast
Oklahoma and south central
through southwest Missouri
>From midnight to noon tomorrow EST the probability of 4 inches or greater of
snow is less than
20%
The probability of 1/4 inch or greater of ice accumulation is low over
extreme central north Texas,
Oklahoma except the far southeast and northwest 2/3, the southeast 1/4
except the far southeast
area, southern Illinois except the far southern area and central north and
northeast Pennsylvania.
Current USA Snow and Ice Cover
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/us_NESDISsnow.gif
=> USA Flood Report
NATIONAL HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS
0900 AM EST THU FEB 15 2001
FLOOD SUMMARY
FLOODING CONTINUES IN CENTRAL U.S.
MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING CONTINUES ON MORE THAN THREE DOZEN
RIVERS
EXTENDING FROM TEXAS AND LOUISIANA, EAST TO ALABAMA AND ALL THE
WAY NORTH TO MICHIGAN. STATES WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED INCLUDE: TEXAS, LOUISIANA, OKLAHOMA, ARKANSAS, ALABAMA,
MISSISSIPPI, TENNESSEE, INDIANA, ILLINOIS, OHIO, WISCONSIN AND
MICHIGAN
OUTLOOK FOR TODAY
FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF TEXAS, ARKANSAS,
LOUISIANA,
KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EXTENDING FROM
EASTERN TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA.
HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS NORTHEAST INTO
WESTERN KENTUCKY.
FLASH FLOODING:
FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND/OR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD
ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED OVER THE LAST DAY FOR:
ARKANSAS: CLAY, CLEBURNE, CONWAY, CRAIGHEAD, FAULKNER, GREENE,
INDEPENDENCE, JACKSON, LAWRENCE, PERRY, PULASKIE, SALINE, VAN
BUREN, WHITE AND YELL COUNTIES
MISSOURI: DUNKLIN AND VERNON COUNTY
TENNESSEE: MCNAIRY COUNTIES
RIVER FLOODING:
RIVERS AND STREAMS WITH LOCATIONS EITHER ABOVE FLOOD STAGE OR
EXPECTED TO
RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE INCLUDE:
ALABAMA: THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER
ARKANSAS: THE CACHE RIVER
ILLINOIS: THE DES PLAINES, EMBARRAS, ILLINOIS, KANKAKEE, KASKASKIA,
LA MOINE, ROCK, SPOON, WABASH AND LITTLE WABASH RIVERS
INDIANA: THE KANKAKEE, MAUMEE, ST JOSEPH, TIPPECANOE, WABASH AND
YELLOW
RIVERS
LOUISIANA: THE RED CHUTE BAYOU AND BAYOU DORCHEAT
MICHIGAN: THE GRAND, RED CEDAR, ST. JOSEPH AND THORNAPPLE RIVERS
MISSISSIPPI: THE BIG BLACK, BUTTAHATCHIE AND YOLABUSHA RIVERS;
TIBBEE
CREEK
OHIO: THE ST. JOSEPH AND TIFFIN RIVERS
OKLAHOMA: THE LITTLE RIVER
TENNESSEE: THE BUFFALO, BUTTAHATCHIE, HARPETH AND ST FRANCIS
RIVERS
TEXAS: THE NECHES AND EAST FORK OF THE TRINITY RIVERS; SISTER GROVE
CREEK
WISCONSIN: THE FOX RIVER
=> USA Fire Report and Forecast
The USA Fire Report and Forecast has not been updated.
=> USA Earthquake Report
UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY
NATIONAL EARTHQUAKE INFORMATION CENTER
GOLDEN, COLORADO
LISTS OF U.S. EARTHQUAKES IN THE LAST 30 HOURS
Prepared by USGS/NEIC 2001 FEB 15 at 00:15 UTC
EARTHQUAKES IN SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
(29.0 TO 35.8 N, 102.0 TO 125.0 W)
Date Time (UTC) Lat Long Depth Magnitude
2001 FEB 14 05:58:42.00 34.3 N 116.9 W 7 km 3.0
25 miles ENE of San Bernardino, California
2001 FEB 14 19:25:03.00 34.3 N 116.9 W 5 km 3.1
25 miles ENE of San Bernardino, California
EARTHQUAKES IN NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
(40.3 TO 50.0 N, 102.0 TO 125.0 W)
Date Time (UTC) Lat Long Depth Magnitude
2001 FEB 14 17:04:09.00 40.7 N 114.2 W 6 km 3.0
10 miles WSW of Wendover, Utah
2001 FEB 14 22:03:59.00 47.5 N 121.9 W 6 km 3.1
20 miles ESE of Seattle, Washington
=> Yesterday's USA Severe Weather Reports
Note: All data is considered preliminary
Tornado Reports
No reports received
Hail Reports
No reports received
Wind Reports
No reports received
Fields marked UNK are unknown
All Times UTC
Wind Gusts in MPH
Hail Sizes in 1/100 of an Inch (75 = 0.75")
=> Guest Column
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**** ARTICLES ****
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=> National Drought Summary -- February 13, 2001
The Southeast: Several fast-moving storm systems brought beneficial
precipitation to most of the
Southeast, especially from northeastern Texas to southeastern Tennessee, and
in eastern South
Carolina where 1-3" of rain fell. The precipitation eased or eliminated
drought in Mississippi and
western Alabama where surplus precipitation has occurred since November.
However, another
week of near to below-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures
along most of the
Atlantic Coastal Plains and in the southern Appalachians kept or expanded
dryness and drought in
these regions, particularly Florida. Little or no rain, highs in the 80's,
and winter freezes which have
increased dry fuels have escalated wildfire danger across much of the state,
including a 20,000 acre
fire in the southwestern corner of near-record low Lake Okeechobee (east of
Moore Haven, FL)
that is normally marshy. In addition, the hydrological (W) depiction was
moved northward as fire (F)
and agricultural (A) impacts have become more relevant as Spring approaches,
except in the central
Gulf coast states where only hydrological impacts are a concern (topsoil
moisture is adequate).
The Central Appalachians: Light precipitation (0.3-0.6") maintained abnormal
dryness (D0) in
Pennsylvania, but lower totals (<0.3") and temperatures averaging 9 to 12°F
above normal
expanded moderate drought (D1) into southern West Virginia and severe
drought (D2) into
southwestern Virginia. The USGS 7-day averaged streamflows dropped to
near-record low early
February levels in the latter two areas as October 2000-January 2001
precipitation percentiles were
less than 2%.
The Plains and Midwest: A significant winter storm tracked across the
central Plains and the
Midwest on February 8-9, producing more than 2 inches of precipitation in
many locations from
eastern Kansas to Lower Michigan. As a result, an area of severe drought
(D2) across the
east-central Plains improved to moderate drought (D1). Slightly lighter
amounts of precipitation
(generally 1 to 2 inches) were observed from central Kansas to Michigan's
Upper Peninsula,
eradicating abnormally dry (D0) conditions in the latter region and bringing
further drought reduction
in the central Plains and Midwest. Farther south, dry weather prevailed
across southeastern New
Mexico and southwestern Texas, leaving long-term dryness/drought
well-entrenched. Areas in and
around Midland, Texas, where severe drought (D2) persists, have received
chronically
below-normal amounts of precipitation since 1994. Severe drought (D2) also
continues across
Montana's High Plains, with lesser degrees of dryness/drought (D0 and D1)
affecting adjacent
areas. Hydrological concerns (D0) persist in western and southwestern
Nebraska.
The West: Recent storms added about 3 inches of water equivalent to the
Sierra Nevada snow
pack, according to February 13 data from the California Department of Water
Resources.
Nevertheless, the state snow-survey average of 13 inches is only a little
over 60 percent of the
mid-February average, thus maintaining D0(W) in the Sierra Nevada. Farther
north, the Cascades
and northern Rockies recorded another week of light precipitation, with
approximately two-thirds of
their wet season already completed. Data from USDA's SNOTEL network indicate
that
precipitation since October 1 is generally averaging 45-75%, and the
February 13 basin snow water
equivalent ranged between 35-65%. Quoting from the Washington State Water
Supply Outlook,
"Washington state snowpack and precipitation is near record low levels.
Streamflow forecasts for
the upper Columbia River region are all drastically low...the lack of
precipitation has also reduced
available reservoir storage to precariously low levels". Accordingly,
moderate drought (D1) was
expanded to encompass Washington and most of Oregon, Idaho, Montana, and
Wyoming.
Although northwest Oregon was included in the new D1(W) area based upon the
well-below normal
seasonal precipitation, its water supply is heavily dependent upon Spring
precipitation, allowing for a
better chance of improvement there during the next few months. Even at lower
elevations of the
Pacific Northwest, less than 60% of normal October 1-February 12
precipitation totals were
widespread, including Eugene, OR (11.22", or 36%), Salem, OR (11.31", or
47%), Olympia, WA
(16.66", or 53%), and Seattle, WA (12.67", or 57%).
Hawaii and Puerto Rico: A fetch of tropical moisture ahead of a deep trough
west of Hawaii greatly
enhanced windward showers, particularly on Kauai, Oahu, and the Big Island.
February 8-12 totals
included 10-14 inches across northern Kauai, 2-5 inches in northern and
eastern Oahu, 1-3 inches in
northeastern Maui, and 4-12 inches at windward locations of the Big Island.
The rainfall was
widespread and heavy enough to reduce drought or eliminate abnormal dryness
in some of the
aforementioned areas; however, only light showers (less than 0.5 inches)
fell on leeward sections,
keeping drought intact. In Puerto Rico, drier weather returned to the island
after several consecutive
weeks of unseasonably heavy showers, maintaining abnormal dryness along the
southwestern coast.
Looking Ahead: Weather features through February 23 that may impact dry or
drought areas
include: 1) A series of slow-moving storm systems should track through the
eastern half of the
Nation Tuesday-Friday, producing significant precipitation from eastern
Texas to the mid-Atlantic;
however, these systems (and its rainfall) should stay well north of Florida
and eastern sections of
Georgia and South Carolina; 2) Light precipitation and colder conditions are
predicted for the
Pacific Northwest through Monday, with higher precipitation amounts possible
farther south in
southern Oregon and northern California; 3) Tropical moisture south of
Hawaii should enhance
windward showers Tuesday-Thursday, then drier conditions should prevail into
next week. 4) The 6
to 10-day outlook (for Feb. 19-23) calls for above-normal precipitation in
the Southwest and New
England, and subnormal precipitation in the Nation's midsection and along
the Gulf Coast, including
Florida.
Author: David Miskus
=> GVP/USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report 7-13 February 2001
NEW! World Map Showing Volcanoes Discussed This Week
http://www.volcano.si.edu/gvp/usgs/
New Activity/Unrest: | Ijen, Indonesia | Inielika, Indonesia | Kelut,
Indonesia | Lokon-Empung, Indonesia | Mayon, Philippines | Merapi,
Indonesia |
Ongoing Activity: | Guagua Pichincha, Ecuador | Karangetang, Indonesia |
Kilauea, USA | Popocatépetl, México | Shiveluch, Kamchatka | Soufrière
Hills, Montserrat |
New Activity
IJEN eastern Java, Indonesia 8.058°S, 114.242°E; summit elev. 2,386 m
During 30 January to 5 February, seismic activity increased at Ijen
volcano. This increase was marked by a large number of shallow volcanic
earthquakes (75). In addition, 2 small explosion events, 6 tectonic events,
and 2 tremor earthquakes occurred. The volcano is at Alert Level 2 (on a
scale of 1-4).
Background. The Ijen volcano complex consists of a group of small
stratovolcanoes constructed within the large 20-km-wide Ijen (Kendeng)
caldera. The N caldera wall forms a prominent arcuate ridge, but elsewhere
the caldera rim is buried by post-caldera volcanoes, including Gunung
Merapi stratovolcano, which forms the 2,799 m high point of the Ijen
complex. Immediately W of Gunung Merapi is the renowned historically
active Kawah Ijen volcano, which contains a nearly 1-km-wide,
turquoise-colored, acid crater lake. The picturesque lake is the site of a
labor-intensive sulfur mining operation, in which sulfur-laden baskets are
hand-carried from the crater floor. A half dozen small-to-moderate
phreatic eruptions have taken place from Kawah Ijen during the 20th century.
Source: Volcanological Survey of Indonesia
http://www.vsi.dpe.go.id/news/index.html
More Ijen Reports <
http://www.volcano.si.edu/gvp/volcano/region06/java/ijen/var.htm> from the
monthly Bulletin of the Global Volcanism Network
INIELIKA central Flores, Indonesia 8.73°S, 120.98°E; summit elev. 1,559 m
During 6-11 February, Inielika volcano remained active and the VSI reported
no significant change in volcanic activity. An ash plume was observed
rising 25-500 m above the volcano and there was a slight increase in the
number of deep volcanic earthquakes in comparison to the previous week. The
Alert Level at the volcano was reduced from 3 to 2 (on a scale of 1-4).
Background. Inielika is a broad, low volcano in central Flores Island that
was constructed within the Lobobutu caldera.The complex summit of the
volcano contains ten craters, some of which are lake filled, in a 5-sq-km
area. The largest of these craters, Wolo Runu and Wolo Lega North, are 750
m wide. The first historical eruption of Inielika, a phreatic explosion
that formed a new crater, did not occur until 1905, and was the volcano's
only eruption during the 20th century.
Source: Volcanological Survey of Indonesia,
http://www.vsi.dpe.go.id/news/index.html
No past reports
KELUT Java, Indonesia 7.93°S, 112.31°E; summit elev. 1,731 m
VSI scientists found that the temperature of Kelut's crater lake had
increased and its pH dropped as follows. During 29 January to 7 February
the lake's temperature ranged from 50.1 °C to 51 °C, compared with 47.5 °C
on 18 January and 38.5 °C on 8 January. On 7 February the pH of the water
was 5, compared with measurements of 6.3 in January 2001 and 6.9 in
November 2000. The volcano remained at Alert Level 2 (ranging from 1-4).
Background. The relatively inconspicuous 1,731-m-high Kelut stratovolcano
contains a summit crater lake that has been the source of some of
Indonesia's most deadly eruptions. A cluster of summit lava domes cut by
numerous craters has given the summit a very irregular profile. More than
30 eruptions have been recorded from Gunung Kelut since 1000 AD. The
ejection of water from the crater lake during Kelut's typically short, but
violent eruptions has created pyroclastic flows and lahars that have caused
widespread fatalities and destruction. After more than 5,000 people were
killed during the 1919 eruption, an ambitious engineering project sought to
drain the crater lake. This initial effort lowered the lake by more than 50
m, but the 1951 eruption deepened the crater by 70 m, leaving 50 million
cubic meters of water after repair of the damaged drainage tunnels. After
more than 200 people were killed in the 1966 eruption, a new deeper tunnel
was constructed, lowering the lake's volume to only about 1 million cubic
meters prior to the 1990 eruption.
Source: Volcanological Survey of Indonesia,
http://www.vsi.dpe.go.id/news/index.html
Kelut Reports
<http://www.volcano.si.edu/gvp/volcano/region06/java/kelut/var.htm> from
the monthly Bulletin of the Global Volcanism Network
LOKON-EMPUNG northern Sulawesi, Indonesia 1.36°N, 124.79°E; summit elev.
1,580 m
After explosions occurred on 28 January, volcanic activity decreased.
During 30 January to 5 February an ash plume was observed rising 200-350 m
above the volcano. The seismograph on the volcano broke on 30 January. The
volcano remained at Alert Level 3 (on a scale of 1-4).
Background. The twin volcanoes Lokon and Empung, rising about 800 m above
the plain of Tondano, are among the most active volcanoes of Sulawesi.
Lokon, the higher of the two peaks (whose summits are only 2.2 km apart)
has a flat, craterless top. The morphologically younger Empung volcano has
a 400-m-wide, 150-m-deep crater that erupted last in the 18th century, but
all subsequent eruptions have originated from Tompaluan, a 150 x 250 m wide
double crater situated in the saddle between the two peaks. Historical
eruptions have primarily produced small-to-moderate ash plumes that have
occasionally damaged croplands and houses, but lava-dome growth and
pyroclastic flows have also occurred.
Source: Volcanological Survey of Indonesia,
http://www.vsi.dpe.go.id/news/index.html
Lokon-Empung Reports
<http://www.volcano.si.edu/gvp/volcano/region06/sulawesi/lokon/var.htm>
from the monthly Bulletin of the Global Volcanism Network
MAYON southeastern Luzon, Philippines 13.257°N, 123.685°E; summit elev.
2,462 m
The PHIVOLCS reported that volcanic activity remained high at Mayon.
Abundant low-frequency volcanic earthquakes associated with dome growth
took place on 7, 8, 9, 11, and 12 February and consisted of 29, 30, 29, 45,
and 30 events, respectively. Also on 12 February seismometers detected 2
rockfalls. The crater emitted voluminous steam and sulfur, with a maximum
of ~7,100 metric tons of SO2 detected on 12 February. Tiltmeters on the
volcano's N flank continued to detect slight edifice inflation. On 11
February, PHIVOLCS reported that most of the springs in the E and S
quadrants of the volcano showed a decrease in discharge, despite increasing
rainfall. Inclement weather prevented observations of the volcano. Mayon
remained at Alert Level 3 (on a scale of 0-5).
Background. The beautifully symmetrical Mayon volcano, which rises to 2,462
m above the Albay Gulf, is the Philippines' most active volcano. The
structurally simple volcano has steep upper slopes that average 35-40° and
is capped by a small summit crater. The historical eruptions of this
basaltic-andesitic volcano date back to 1616 and range from Strombolian to
basaltic Plinian. Eruptions occur predominately from the central conduit
and have also produced lava flows that travel far down the flanks.
Pyroclastic flows and mudflows have commonly swept down many of the
approximately 40 ravines that radiate from the summit and have often
devastated populated lowland areas. Mayon's most violent eruption, in 1814,
killed more than 1,200 people and buried an entire town in volcanic mud.
Eruptions that began in February 2000 led PHIVOLCS to recommend on 23
February the evacuation of people within 7 km of the summit in the SE and
within 6 km for the rest of the volcano.
Sources: Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology,
http://www.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph/vmepd/vmepd.htm
Mayon Reports
<http://www.volcano.si.edu/gvp/volcano/region07/luzon/mayon/var.htm> from
the monthly Bulletin of the Global Volcanism Network
MERAPI central Java, Indonesia 7.542°S, 110.442°E; summit elev. 2,947 m;
All times are local (= GMT + 7 hours)
Intense and dangerous volcanic activity continued at Merapi with hot lava
avalanches, near-continuous pyroclastic flows, and an eruption on 10
February that deposited ash on many cities out to 60 km E of the volcano.
During 30 January to 5 February, continuous hot lava avalanches and
pyroclastic flows traveled down the SW flank of the volcano along the Sat,
Senowo, and Bebeng rivers to a maximum runout distance of ~4.5 km. Lava
avalanches also traveled down the Lamat River, a drainage that avalanches
had not previously traveled down during the current period of volcanic
activity. Approximately 25 pyroclastic flows occurred daily. Ash associated
with the pyroclastic flows fell around Merapi. During 0430 to 0630 on 3
February heavy rain mixed with ash and produced minor lahars. On 6 February
the dome was reported as being 1 million cubic meters in volume and growing
at 45 cubic meters per day.
Pyroclastic-flow activity began at 2100 on 9 February and lasted up to 1
hour. At 0200 on 10 February, a medium-sized pyroclastic flow lasted for
~30 minutes. At 0330 the same day "lava dome 1998," which was under the new
lava dome ("lava dome 2001"), partially collapsed. The collapse triggered
a large and continuous pyroclastic flow that lasted as long as 2.5 hours.
The pyroclastic flow traveled up to 7 km SW of the summit towards the Sat
River, and 4.5 WSW to the Lamat River. The resultant ash cloud rose up to
5-8 km above the summit, spread ~60 km towards the E, and deposited ash on
the towns of Klaten, Solo, Sukoharjo, and Boyolali. The greatest ash
thickness was ~1 cm, reported within a 5 km radius around the volcano. At
0530 the Alert Level at the volcano was raised from 3 to 4, the highest
level. News articles reported that ~12,000 residents near the volcano were
evacuated on 10 February, though many people returned to their property the
next day despite the evacuation order. By 11 February, lava dome 2001 was
estimated to be 1.4 million cubic meters in volume and unstable, especially
after the 10 February collapse of "lava dome 1998."
Background. Merapi, one of Indonesia's most active volcanoes, lies in one
of the world's most densely populated areas and dominates the landscape
immediately N of the major city of Yogyakarta. The steep-sided modern
Merapi edifice, its upper part unvegetated due to frequent eruptive
activity, was constructed to the SW of an arcuate scarp cutting the eroded
older Batulawang volcano. Pyroclastic flows and lahars accompanying growth
and collapse of the steep-sided active summit lava dome have devastated
cultivated and inhabited lands on the volcano's western-to-southern flanks
and caused many fatalities during historical time. The volcano is the
object of extensive monitoring efforts by the Merapi Volcano Observatory of
the Volcanological Survey of Indonesia.
Sources: Volcanological Survey of Indonesia,
http://www.vsi.dpe.go.id/news/index.html
Darwin VAAC, http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/VAAC/OTH/AU/messages.html
Australian Broadcasting Company
http://www.abc.net.au/news/newslink/weekly/newsnat-10feb2001-83.htm,
Associated Press
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/ap/20010211/wl/indonesia_volcano_4.html
Merapi Reports
<http://www.volcano.si.edu/gvp/volcano/region06/java/merapi/var.htm> from
the monthly Bulletin of the Global Volcanism Network
Ongoing Activity
GUAGUA PICHINCHA north-central Ecuador 0.17°S, 78.60°W; summit elev. 4,784 m
Lava dome growth continued at dome 9 at a rate similar to that of previous
weeks. Rockfalls were observed travelling to the SW towards Cristal River.
The volcano remained at Alert Level Yellow
<http://www.epn.edu.ec/~igeo/Vulcanologia/Alarmas/alarmas.htm>.
Background. Guagua Pichincha rises immediately W of Quito, Ecuador's
capital city. The broad volcanic massif is cut by a large horseshoe-shaped
summit caldera, ~6 km in diameter and 600 m deep, that was breached to the
W during a slope failure ~50,000 years ago. Subsequent late-Pleistocene
and Holocene eruptions from the central vent consisted of explosive
activity with pyroclastic flows accompanied by periodic lava dome growth
and destruction. A major eruption in 1660 deposited 30 cm of ash in Quito,
but most of the many eruptions since the Spanish colonial era have been
minor. The latest eruptive period began with phreatic explosions in 1998.
Magmatic eruptions first occurred in October 1999, and intermittent
eruptions of varying scale since then have blanketed Quito and surrounding
towns with ash.
Source: Instituto Geofísico http://www.epn.edu.ec/~igeo/index.html
Guagua Pichincha Reports
http://www.volcano.si.edu/gvp/volcano/region15/ecuador/guagua/var.htm from
the Bulletin of the Global Volcanism Network
KARANGETANG [API SIAU] Siau island, Indonesia 2.78°N, 125.48°E; summit
elev. 1,784 m
The VSI reported that since the 28 January eruption there has been no
significant change in activity observed at Karangetang. Seismicity remained
dominated by multi-phase earthquakes. The volcano remained at Alert Level 2
(on a scale of 1-4).
Background. Karangetang (also known as Api Siau) lies at the northern end
of the island of Siau, N of Sulawesi, and contains five summit craters
strung along a N-S line. One of Indonesia's most active volcanoes,
Karangetang has had more than 40 recorded eruptions since 1675.
Twentieth-century eruptions have included frequent explosions, sometimes
accompanied by pyroclastic flows and lahars.
Source: Volcanological Survey of Indonesia
http://www.vsi.dpe.go.id/news/index.html
Karangetang reports
<http://www.volcano.si.edu/gvp/volcano/region06/sangihe/karang/var.htm>from
the Bulletin of the Global Volcanism Network
KILAUEA Hawaii, USA 19.43°N, 155.29°W; summit elev. 1,222 m
Surface flows continued to travel down the Pulama pali, with no lava
entering the sea. A tiltmeter near the HVO showed a small (about 0.4
microradian) deflation shortly before 1230 on 10 February. After 10
February, tiltmeters in the summit area and along the E rift zone showed
flat signals. Volcanic tremor near Pu`u `O`o and in Kilauea`s caldera was
at low-to-moderate levels.
Background. Kilauea, one of five coalescing volcanoes that comprise the
island of Hawaii, is one of the world's most active volcanoes.
Historically its eruptions originate primarily from the summit caldera or
along one of the lengthy E and SW rift zones that extend from the caldera
to the sea. The latest Kilauea eruption began in January 1983 along the E
rift zone. The Pu`u `O`o-Kupaianaha eruption is now in its 18th year and
55th eruptive episode. Since 1986, flows have traveled 11-12 km from the
vents to the sea, paving about 80 km2 of land on the S flank of Kilauea and
building 205 hectares of new land. Intensive monitoring and field research
by staff of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory, established in 1912, make
Kilauea one of Earth's best studied volcanoes.
Source: US Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory
http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/kilauea/update/
Kilauea Reports
<http://www.volcano.si.edu/gvp/volcano/region13/hawaii/kilauea/var.htm>
from the monthly Bulletin of the Global Volcanism Network
POPOCATÉPETL México 19.02°N, 98.62°W; summit elev. 5,426 m; All times are
local (= GMT 6 hours)
The Washington VAAC reported several small ash-bearing eruptions during the
week. At 1921 on 8 February an eruption produced a small ash cloud that
rose up to ~7.6 km a.s.l. and blew to the NE. At 1400 on 9 February an
eruption produced an ash cloud that rose up to ~6.7 km. A small ash plume
produced from emissions that occurred at 1338 and 1348 on 11 February was
visible in GOES-8 imagery. The ash plume rose up to ~7.9 km a.s.l. and blew
to the S.
Background. Popocatépetl, whose name is the Aztec word for smoking
mountain, towers to 5,426 m 70 km SE of México City and is North America's
second highest volcano. Frequent historical eruptions have been recorded
since the beginning of the Spanish colonial era. A small eruption on 21
December 1994 ended five decades of quiescence. Since 1996 small lava
domes have incrementally been constructed within the summit crater and
destroyed by explosive eruptions. Intermittent small-to-moderate
gas-and-ash eruptions have continued, occasionally producing ashfall in
neighboring towns and villages.
Photos (CENAPRED site): http://www.cenapred.unam.mx/boletines.html
Sources: Centro Nacionale de Prevencion de Desastres,
http://www.cenapred.unam.mx/boletines.html
Washington VAAC http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/VAAC/messages.html
Popocatépetl Reports
<http://www.volcano.si.edu/gvp/volcano/region14/mexico/popo/var.html> from
the monthly Bulletin of the Global Volcanism Network
SHIVELUCH Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia 56.653°N, 161.360°E; summit elev.
3,283 m; All times are local (= GMT + 12 hours)
The KVERT reported that during most of the week seismicity was at
background levels. At 1100 on 2 February a powerful gas-and-ash eruption
produced a plume that rose 800 m above the volcano and spread ~3 km towards
the W. The same day, observations from Klyuchi town revealed that at 1804 a
short-lived eruption produced an ash plume that rose up to ~5.3 km a.s.l.
The event was accompanied by a 2-minute-long shallow seismic signal that
was detected more than 110 km from the volcano. Afterwards, during 1807 to
1824 strong volcanic tremor was registered. The Concern Color
<http://www.avo.alaska.edu/avo4/updates/kvertweekly.htm> remained at Yellow.
Background. The high, isolated massif of Shiveluch volcano (also spelled
Sheveluch) rises above the lowlands NNE of the Kliuchevskaya volcano group
and forms one of Kamchatka's largest and most active volcanoes. The
currently active Molodoy Shiveluch lava-dome complex was constructed during
the Holocene within a large breached caldera formed by collapse of the
massive late-Pleistocene Strary Shiveluch volcano. At least 60 large
eruptions of Shiveluch have occurred during the Holocene, making it the
most vigorous andesitic volcano of the Kuril-Kamchatka arc. Frequent
collapses of lava-dome complexes, most recently in 1964, have produced
large debris avalanches whose deposits cover much of the floor of the
breached caldera. During the 1990s, intermittent explosive eruptions took
place from a new lava dome that began growing in 1980. The largest
historical eruptions from Shiveluch occurred in 1854 and 1964.
Source: Kamchatkan Volcanic Eruption Response Team via the Alaska Volcano
Observatory http://www.avo.alaska.edu/avo4/updates/kvertweekly.htm
Shiveluch Reports
<http://www.volcano.si.edu/gvp/volcano/region10/kamchat/shiveluc/var.htm>
from the monthly Bulletin of the Global Volcanism Network
SOUFRIERE HILLS Montserrat, West Indies 16.72°N, 62.18°W; summit elev. 1,052
m
The MVO reported that during 2 to 9 February activity at the Soufrière
Hills volcano was slightly higher than during the previous week as lava
dome growth continued. Seismic activity remained similar to the previous
week, although it increased towards the end of the report week. Rockfall
activity was low during the beginning of the week, but significantly
increased beginning on 6 February; only 9 rockfalls were recorded on 5
February, while 70 were recorded on 6 February. Brief observations revealed
that volcanic activity remained concentrated on the E side of the lava dome
and that two large near-vertical spines stood on the dome's summit. By 8
February new pyroclastic-flow deposits were emplaced at the head of Tuitt's
Ghaut ~300 m to the N of the dome. The Washington VAAC reported that
throughout the week low-level (up to
~2.1 km a.s.l.) ash clouds, presumably produced by rockfalls, and periodic
hot-spot activity were visible on GOES-8 imagery.
Background. The complex andesitic Soufriere Hills volcano occupies the
southern half of the island of Montserrat. The summit area consists
primarily of a series of lava domes emplaced along an ESE-trending zone.
Non-eruptive seismic swarms occurred at 30-year intervals in the 20th
century, but the first well-documented historical eruption on Montserrat
did not take place until 1995. Long-term small-to-moderate ash eruptions
were accompanied by lava dome growth and pyroclastic flows that initially
forced evacuation of the southern half of the island and then destroyed the
capital city of Plymouth, causing severe social and economic disruption.
The volcano is currently in a period of new dome growth.
Source: Montserrat Volcano Observatory http://www.mvomrat.com/
Washington VAAC http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/VAAC/messages.html
Soufriere Hills Reports
<http://www.volcano.si.edu/gvp/volcano/region16/w_indies/soufhill/var.htm>
from the monthly Bulletin of the Global Volcanism Network
=> Action by Churches Together (ACT) Alert - Sudan 1 - 2001
Food Shortage Crisis in JUBA
Geneva, 15 February, 2001
Juba and its surrounding areas has experienced crop failure this year as a
result of poor rains during the last season. Our ACT members the Norwegian
Church Aid (NCA) and the Sudan Council of Churches (SCC) report that the
situation is so bad as most of the livestock perished during the drought
period (between March and September) and the people have exhausted their
coping mechanisms. There are fears that the already fragile families will
further disintegrate as children have started leaving their homes to look
for food elsewhere. Malnutrition is expected to rise affecting 18% of the
200,000 population in the area. Currently World Food Program (WFP) is
assisting 15,000 IDPs in the area concentrating on the most vulnerable
caseload of the elderly, children under five, lactating mothers and
pregnant women.
NCA and SCC would like to intervene to assist 5,000 families of 25,000
people with relief food, provide agricultural inputs, and also the
provision of essential drugs to the clinics. In order to carry out the
planned programs, the two ACT members have estimated a budget of
US$771,500.
The ACT Coordinating Office will be issuing an appeal on receipt of
detailed proposals from the ACT members. We would therefore appreciate
your indication of your support to this emergency situation.
=> American Heart Month --- February 2001
February is American Heart Month. During the month, the CDC-funded New
York State Department of Health cardiovascular health program and other
organizations are sponsoring the Regional Cardiovascular Health Summit,
which will focus on improving the quality of prevention activities in
health-care systems. An estimated 12 million persons residing in the United
States have coronary heart disease (CHD) (1), which includes myocardial
infarction, angina pectoris (chest pain), or both. During 1998,
approximately 460,000 persons died of CHD; 44% of these deaths were
attributed to acute myocardial infarction. CHD can be prevented by reducing
or controlling high cholesterol, high blood pressure, and diabetes, by
abstaining from smoking, adopting a healthy diet, and engaging in moderate
physical activity and weight management. Many deaths and much disability
also can be prevented by early recognition of heart attack symptoms, prompt
response from and transportation to an emergency department, and timely,
appropriate treatment (2).
Many of the 25 CDC-funded state programs work with their American Heart
Association affiliate and state peer review organizations to promote health
system policy changes related to improving risk-reduction counseling,
appropriate treatment of patients with CHD, and other prevention measures.
Information about CHD warning signs, risk factors, and treatments and
scientific statements on health-care quality initiatives are available on
the World-Wide Web from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute,
http://www.nhlbi.nih.gov, the Health Care Financing Administration,
http://www.hcfa.gov/quality/3y.htm, and the American Heart Association,
http://www.americanheart.org*. Information about CDC-supported state
cardio-vascular health programs is available at http://www.cdc.gov/nccdphp.
=> Coronary Heart Disease The Leading Cause Of Death In The United States
Despite improved clinical care, heightened public awareness, and
widespread use of health innovations, coronary heart disease (CHD) remains
the leading cause of death in the United States (1,2), and the decline in
rates from CHD that began during the 1960s slowed during the 1990s (3). This
report provides national and state-specific death rates for CHD and for
acute myocardial infarction (AMI). During 2001, approximately 1.1 million
persons are expected to have a CHD event (1). Prevention remains the key
strategy for reducing CHD mortality.
National and state mortality statistics are based on information from
death certificates filed in state vital statistics offices and are compiled
by CDC's National Center for Health Statistics (4). Demographics (e.g., age
and race/ethnicity) listed on death certificates are reported by funeral
directors or provided by family members of the decedent. CHD deaths are
those in which the underlying cause of death listed on the death certificate
by a physician, medical examiner, or coroner is International Classification
of Diseases,Ninth Revision, codes 410.0--414.9 (5). CHD includes AMI (410),
other acute and subacute forms of ischemic heart disease (411), old
myocardial infarction (412), angina pectoris (413), and other forms of
chronic ischemic heart disease (414.0--414.9). Populations at risk are
defined on the basis of U.S. Bureau of Census estimates of resident
populations. Age-adjusted estimates are standardized to the 2000 U.S.
population. Because only 0.2% of CHD deaths and 0.3% of AMI deaths occur
among persons aged <35 years, the age-adjusted death rates have been limited
to persons aged greater than or equal to 35 years.
The annual percentage change in U.S. death rates for CHD during
1950--1959, 1960--1969, 1970--1979, 1980--1989, and 1990--1997 was 2.1, 0.2,
--3.1, --3.3, and --2.7, respectively (3). During 1998, CHD was reported as
the underlying cause of 459,841 deaths; 203,551 (44%) were attributed to
AMI. During 1998, age-specific death rates per 100,000 persons increased
among successive age groups for CHD and AMI. Among persons aged greater than
or equal to 85 years, the 1998 CHD death rate was 3743.9, which was three
times higher than the rate among persons aged 75--84 years (1252.2), seven
times higher than among persons aged 65--74 years (487.2), and 21 times
higher than among persons aged 55--64 years (180.7) (Table 1).
The age-adjusted death rate among persons aged greater than or equal to
35 years was higher among men than women (222.4 versus 135.8 per 100,000 for
CHD and 99.7 versus 58.8 per 100,000 for AMI, respectively). CHD death rates
were highest among white men (440.0) and second highest among black men
(421.6). AMI deaths were similar among both groups (196.7 and 198.7 for
white and black men, respectively) (Table 2). Compared with white men,
American Indian/Alaska Native men and Asian/Pacific Islander men had much
lower death rates for CHD (246.7 and 258.3, respectively) and AMI (120.9 and
109.1, respectively). Black women had the highest death rates for CHD
(301.9) and AMI (140.4), followed by white (263.8 and 113.2 for CHD and AMI,
respectively), American Indian/Alaska Native, (160.2 and 69.3 for CHD and
AMI, respectively) and Asian/Pacific Islander (148.1 and 62.2 for CHD and
AMI, respectively) women (Table 2). Compared with black and white men and
women, Hispanics had lower death rates for CHD (285.4 and 189.8 for men and
women, respectively) and AMI (121.6 and 76.7 for men and women,
respectively) (Table 2). State variations in age-adjusted death rates for
CHD and AMI ranged from 208.1 (New Mexico) to 440.6 (New York) for CHD and
from 80.5 (New Mexico) to 252.6 (Arkansas) for AMI (Table 3).
Reported by: Cardiovascular Health Studies Br, Div of Adult and Community
Health, National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion;
and EIS officers, CDC.
Editorial Note: An estimated 12 million persons in the United States have
CHD (3). Of the 1.1 million persons who are expected to have a CHD event
during 2001, approximately 650,000 will be first events and 450,000 will be
recurrences. Each year, approximately 220,000 fatal CHD events occur
suddenly among unhospitalized persons (1). The slowing decline in CHD death
rates may be explained by the pattern of CHD risk factors reported during
the 1990s (3). Minimal, if any, improvement has occurred in preventive
behaviors (e.g., adequate physical activity, cessation of smoking, and the
control of high blood pressure) (3). In addition, an increase has been
reported in caloric consumption and the prevalence of obesity and diabetes
(3). Factors that may have contributed to the racial/ethnic differences,
particularly those between black and white women, include differences in CHD
risk factors, case fatality rates, medical care, socioeconomic status, and
state of residence (6).
The findings in this report are subject to at least two limitations.
First, the data are subject to misclassification of race/ethnicity in the
population census and on death certificates, which may result in
undercounting of deaths among American Indians/Alaska Natives,
Asians/Pacific Islanders, and Hispanics and overcounting of deaths among
black and white populations (7). Second, there is no medical record
verification of death certificate data on multiple-cause mortality records.
The reliability and accuracy of underlying cause depends on the certifier of
each death and the state and national nosologists who determine the codes
and the underlying causes.
CDC funds 25 state-based cardiovascular health programs designed to
prevent the first heart attack and promote a greater decline in death and
disability from CHD. Measures intended to prevent a first AMI promote policy
changes (e.g., health-care providers implementing American Heart Association
AMI prevention guidelines) and behavioral changes that affect
cardiovascular-related risk factors (e.g., high blood pressure, high
cholesterol, cigarette smoking, physical inactivity, and poor nutrition).
Myocardial damage, disability, and death can be forestalled if affected
persons recognize AMI warning symptoms and reach medical care quickly (8).
To reduce delays in receiving treatment (8) and preventing disability
following a CHD event, emergency medical care often can be obtained rapidly
by telephoning 911. Other interventions consist of therapeutic measures to
minimize the risk for a second heart attack and subsequent heart failure
(9), education to promote physician adherence to clinical practice
guidelines, and recommendations for the appropriate treatment of CHD
patients.
References
1. American Heart Association. 2001 Heart and stroke statistical update.
Dallas, Texas: American Heart Association, 2000. Available at
http://www.americanheart.org/statistics/index.html
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FREE 30 days of StormWarn by Email, Pager, PCS/GSM Phone, Business Fax at no
cost*
Sign up today and you'll receive no obligation, no commitment StormWarn . If
you find it helpful, you can then decide to continue service at very low
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*Direct pages and faxes are limited to 50 bulletins during the trial period.
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=> Links Area
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (VINCENT)
Indian Ocean
Tropical Cyclone 09S (Vincent) was located in the Indian Ocean near 16.3S
and 118.9E at 06:00
UTC.
Vincent has been moving east-southeastward at 08 knots with maximum
sustained winds
estimated at 35 knots, gusts to 45 knots.
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Tropical/IndOcean/TRCvincent045_GM.jpg
DUST IN AFRICA
East Africa
A dust storm (indicated by the yellow arrows) is visible in Chad and Niger.
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Dust/Africa_E/DSTafr045_MT.jpg
FIRES IN AFRICA
Sudan and Ethiopia
Heat signatures (red) and smoke (light blue) are visible from fires burning
in Sudan and Ethiopia.
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Fires/Africa_E/FSMHSsudan045_N4.jpg
FIRES IN CENTRAL AMERICA
Central America
Heat signatures (red) and smoke (light blue) are visible from fires burning
in El Salvador,
Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua.
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Fires/C_America/FSMHScam045_N4.jpg
FIRES IN VENEZUELA
Venezuela
Heat signatures (red) and smoke (light blue) are visible from fires burning
in Colombia and
Venezuela.
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Fires/Venezuela/FSMHSven045_N4.jpg
=> How to Be Featured as our Guest Columnist
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readers of the SitRep please send an email to: host{at}disastercenter.com
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Thu Mar 01 2001 - 08:59:39 EST
