The USA Disaster Situation Report
The Daily USA Disaster Situation Report
For January 17, 2001
Christopher Effgen, Editor, host{at}disastercenter.com
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IN THIS ISSUE
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=> USA Daily Temperature Extremes
=> Special Notes
=> Current Active National Weather Service Warnings:
=> Severe Weather Probability Forecast
=> Precipitation Forecast, Excessive Rainfall, Heavy Snow And/Or Significant
Icing Forecast
=> USA Flood Report
=> USA Fire Report and Forecast
=> USA Earthquake Report
=> Yesterday's USA Severe Weather Reports
=> Guest Column-
=> Sponsored by The Rothstein Catalog On Disaster Recovery
**** ARTICLES ****
=> Article FEMA -- El Salvador Earthquake Update
=> Article National Weather Service Day 3-10 U.S. Threats Valid Friday,
January 19,
2001 - Tuesday, January 30, 2001.
=> Article Scientists at NSF Center Identify California Seismic Hot Spots
=> Article Scientists Make Rain in Mexico
=> Article Mennonite Disaster Service Update
=> Classified Ads
=> Links Area
=> How to Be Featured as our Guest Columnist
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Sponsored by the The Rothstein Catalog On Disaster Recovery
http://www.disastercenter.com/Rothstein/
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=> Subscribe/Unsubscribe information
The Daily USA Disaster Situation Report
For January 17, 2001
Christopher Effgen, Editor, host{at}disastercenter.com
------------------------------------------------------------
IN THIS ISSUE
------------------------------------------------------------
=> USA Daily Temperature Extremes
National Temperature Extremes
High Tue...83 At Lajitas TX
Low Wed...27 Below Zero At West Yellowstone MT
=> Special Notes
=> Current Active National Weather Service Warnings:
Active Warnings:
Updated Wed Jan 17 11:41:46 2001
Flood
Texas
FOR THE SABINE RIVER INCLUDING QUINLAN...MINOR FLOODING
Non Precipitation
California
IN SOME WIND SHELTERED AREAS OF THE INLAND VALLEYS AND SOUTHERN
DESERTS...TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN FALL BELOW FREEZING LATE
TONIGHT
Winter Storm
Arkansas
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TODAY IN NORTHERN ARKANSAS...
...WINTER STORM WATCH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING IN NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED THIS MORNING IN
JOHNSON...POPE AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES.
Arizona
SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH TODAY FOR THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND
DEFIANCE PLATEAU...
Michigan
FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS MORNING.
New Mexico
A WINTER STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTCENTRAL NEW MEXICO MUCH OF
THE MORNING...THEN DIMINISH THEREAFTER. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY MOSTLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
ISOLATED 5 INCH AMOUNTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
Ohio
Pennsylvania
AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
UNTIL NOON ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA.
PENNDOT OFFICIALS HAVE REPORTED ROADS BECOMING SLIPPERY
Texas
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL DROP TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND APPROACH THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS ON THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
=> Severe Weather Probability Forecast
The forecast probability of an event is by the stated percentage or greater
for the event, within 25 miles of any point for the area described.
Tornado Risk - Slight
There is a 2% probability of a tornado over the south southeast 1/2 of
Louisiana.
Hail Risk - Slight
There is less than a 5% probability of hail 3/4 inch or larger.
Wind Risk - Slight
There is a 5% probability of winds in excess of 50 knots over the south
southeast 1/2 of Louisiana.
Tomorrow's Risk -
There is a 5% probability of any severe weather tomorrow over the south
southeast 1/2 of Louisiana
and far southwest Mississippi.
The 15% probability area covers over the south southeast 1/3 of Louisiana.
Greater threat for severe weather is expected across the central gulf states
after this forecast period.
=> Precipitation Forecast, Excessive Rainfall, Heavy Snow And/Or
Significant
Icing Forecast
Precipitation Forecast
The 24 hour precipitation forecast is calling for over 1 inch of
precipitation over far northwest
Louisiana, central south Arkansas and over a small portion on northeast
Texas.
The 24 - 48 hour precipitation forecast is calling for over 2 inches of
precipitation over east
southeast Texas, the northwest 1/2 of Louisiana, far southeast Arkansas, and
central west
Mississippi.
Over an inch is forecast over the east southeast 1/4 of Texas, the southeast
1/2 of Arkansas, central
south Kentucky, central and western Tennessee, northwest Alabama and the
northwest 3/4 of
Mississippi.
Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Rainfall is not expected to exceed flash flood values.
USA heavy snow and/or significant icing
>From noon to midnight today EST the probability of 4 inches or greater of
snow is low over
southwest Texas.
The probability of 1/4 inch or greater of ice accumulation is less than 20%
>From midnight to noon tomorrow EST the probability of 2 inches or greater of
snow is low over
central Texas
The moderate probability area is over a portion of Central Texas.
>From midnight to noon tomorrow EST the probability of 4 inches or greater of
snow is low over
southeast Texas
The moderate probability area is over southeast central Texas
The probability of 1/4 inch or greater of ice accumulation is low over
northwest Kentucky and
western West Virginia
Current USA Snow and Ice Cover
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/us_NESDISsnow.gif
=> USA Flood Report
NATIONAL HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS
0835 AM EST FRI JAN 17 2001
FLOOD SUMMARY
NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
FLASH FLOODING:
FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD AND/OR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES
WERE ISSUED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS FOR LOCATIONS
INCLUDING:
TEXAS: JEFFERSON COUNTY
RIVER FLOODING:
RIVERS AND STREAMS WITH LOCATIONS EITHER ABOVE FLOOD STAGE OR
EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE INCLUDE:
ARKANSAS: THE CACHE RIVER
ILLINOIS: THE LITTLE WABASH RIVER
LOUISIANA: THE CALCASIEU RIVER
TEXAS: THE NECHES, SABINE, AND SULPHUR RIVERS
=> USA Fire Report and Forecast
The USA Fire Report and Forecast has not been updated.
=> USA Earthquake Report
UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY
NATIONAL EARTHQUAKE INFORMATION CENTER
GOLDEN, COLORADO
LISTS OF U.S. EARTHQUAKES IN THE LAST 30 HOURS
Prepared by USGS/NEIC 2001 JAN 17 at 00:15 UTC
EARTHQUAKES IN SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
(29.0 TO 35.8 N, 102.0 TO 125.0 W)
Date Time (UTC) Lat Long Depth Magnitude
2001 JAN 16 06:08:36.22 30.5 N 113.6 W 10 km 4.1
60 miles S of Puerto Penasco, Sonora, Mexico
2001 JAN 16 07:26:38.53 30.4 N 113.7 W 10 km 4.4
65 miles S of Puerto Penasco, Sonora, Mexico
An earthquak of the magnitude of 2.5 was reported about 0730 CST today near
Newark, NJ. It
was felt in the area surrounding Newark. No report of damage as of 1017
CST.
=> Yesterday's USA Severe Weather Reports
Note: All data is considered preliminary
Tornado Reports
No reports received
Hail Reports
No reports received
Wind Reports
No reports received
Fields marked UNK are unknown
All Times UTC
Wind Gusts in MPH
Hail Sizes in 1/100 of an Inch (75 = 0.75")
=> Guest Column
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**** ARTICLES ****
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=> FEMA -- El Salvador Earthquake Update
Washington, January 16, 2001 -- The lead federal organization for U.S.
foreign disaster assistance is
the Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance, which is part of the U.S. Agency
for International
Development under the U.S. State Department. They report the following
information concerning the
situation in El Salvador.
On January 13, 2001 at approximately 11:35 a.m. local time, an earthquake
with a magnitude of 7.6
on the Richter Scale occurred off the El Salvadoran coastline. More than 500
tremors have occurred
throughout El Salvador since the initial earthquake.
According to the U.S. Embassy in San Salvador, preliminary assessments
indicate that Usulutan
suffered the most extensive damage. However, the departments of San Miguel,
La Paz, and La
Libertad are also affected significantly. The earthquake also rocked
buildings in Guatemala,
Nicaragua, and Honduras. Buildings swayed as far away as Mexico City.
For more details on the situation in El Salvador and information on how the
public can help with
disaster relief and recovery, please visit the Office of Foreign Disaster
Assistance web site and click
on the latest El Salvador fact sheet.
http://www.usaid.gov/hum_response/ofda/
=> National Weather Service Day 3-10 U.S. Threats Valid Friday, January
19, 2001 -
Tuesday, January 30, 2001.
Summary of Forecasts & Threats
SYNOPSIS: Mostly seasonable temperatures are expected during the next two
weeks, with a
tendency for storminess across the southern and eastern United States. The
southern and western
coasts of Alaska should experience a series of storms of normal, mid-winter
intensity during this
period.
THREATS
A band of snow and ice is forecast from northeastern Oklahoma and
northwestern Arkansas
northeastward to southern Michigan on January 19 & 20.
Risk of strong thunderstorms across much of the Southeast on January 19 &
20.
Drought continues across much of the Florida peninsula during this
assessment period.
DETAILED SUMMARY
For Friday January 19 through Sunday January 21: A winter storm of average
intensity is forecast to
track from the Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward through the upper Ohio
Valley during this
period. To the north and west of this stormtrack, we anticipate a band of
snow and ice; while to the
south and east there is the risk for strong thunderstorms.
For Monday January 22 through Tuesday January 30: No significant threats are
foreseen at this
point.
=> Scientists at NSF Center Identify California Seismic Hot Spots
Scientists affiliated with the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC),
one of 28 National Science Foundation (NSF) Science and Technology Centers,
have
released the results of a comprehensive study that identifies hot spots of
seismic shaking in southern California.
"Considering all possible earthquakes, these are areas that we believe are
going
to shake more than other areas," says Tom Henyey, director of SCEC. The hot
spots
are southern California's large valleys and basins where the ground is
flatter,
the soil softer and the area more populous. While it has been known that
sediment-filled valleys usually shake more than rock-hard mountain slopes
during earthquakes, the SCEC study quantifies and refines how the local
geology
affects waves generated by earthquakes. The most important geologic factors,
says Henyey, are the softness of rock or soil near a site's surface and the
thickness of sediments below a site.
Says James Whitcomb, deputy director of NSF's earth sciences division, which
funds SCEC, "What's exciting is that these recently developed techniques can
be
applied to other parts of the U.S. and the world to reduce the destruction
of
earthquakes."
The SCEC study is published this month as a special volume of the Bulletin
of
the Seismological Society of America. [Cheryl Dybas]
Local Research Fuels Innovation and Patents
Politics is local, and now so is innovation, according to a new report from
CHI
Research Inc. of New Jersey. Businesses that once turned to giants like IBM
and
Bell Labs for technology ideas are now looking in their own backyard to
local
universities and research institutes.
The results, from a study funded by NSF, will soon be published in the
journal
Research Policy and are currently available at the CHI Research website.
According to Diana Hicks, senior policy analyst at CHI Research, a look at
U.S.
patents across the past twenty years shows that the explosion of information
and
health technologies is changing how ideas develop into products. One clear
trend
is that in-state scientific capabilities are key to the success of local
high-tech
businesses.
The study also found that the West Coast has overtaken the Middle Atlantic
regions in the number of patents awarded. Hicks noted that universities have
become big players in innovation and patenting, led by a few dominant
high-tech
regions like San Francisco, San Diego, Washington and Boston. [Dave Vannier]
To view the entire report see: http://www.chiresearch.com/changing_innov.pdf
=> Scientists Make Rain in Mexico
BOULDER--Producing more rain by seeding clouds may no longer be
wishful thinking. After many failed attempts by scientists to
duplicate cloud-seeding experiments that appeared to have worked in
the past, a team from the National Center for Atmospheric Research
(NCAR) believes they have finally succeeded in increasing rainfall in
existing storm clouds and quantifying the results. The findings are
being presented this week at the American Meteorological Society's
annual meeting in Albuquerque.
A recent three-year randomized experiment in the northern Mexican
state of Coahuila showed that rainfall from seeded clouds lasted
longer, the rainfall area was larger, and total precipitation was
higher (sometimes even doubled) than output from similar nonseeded
clouds. In many cases the results of the seeding were statistically
significant 20 minutes to an hour after seeding.
The Mexico project was designed to repeat the success of a
groundbreaking, five-year effort conducted in South Africa in the
early 1990s. The new study, which followed several years of drought
in northern Mexico, was funded by the Mexican state of Coahuila with
financial support from Altos Hornos de Mexico, a private steel
company. NCAR's primary sponsor is the National Science Foundation.
NCAR researchers flew into the Mexican rain clouds in a Piper
Cheyenne twin-engine turboprop airplane, equipped with wing-mounted
racks carrying 24 hygroscopic flares and an instrument package to
measure basic cloud physics indicators. The flares spewed salted
smoke into the moisture-rich updrafts entering the clouds from below.
The tiny particles (a mixture of sodium, magnesium, and calcium
chlorides) attracted and absorbed the surrounding water vapor to more
readily create large drops heavy enough to fall out as rain.
"We are very encouraged by the results," says lead scientist Roelof
Bruintjes of NCAR. However, the number of cases is marginal for any
statistical analysis, he adds. Funding for a planned fourth year of
data gathering was cut when the Mexican drought ended. This left the
total number of cases at 94, compared to 127 in the South Africa
study. The team is optimistic that more seasons in the field will
extend the results and help establish statistical significance.
Even more problematic is that scientists cannot fully explain how the
seeding process works inside the cloud. "We must be able to explain
both microphysical and dynamical responses of the cloud to the
seeding procedure," cautions Bruintjes, "before we can claim full
success."
The main tool for "nowcasting" the weather and for evaluating the
seeding experiment was a 5-cm wavelength weather radar. Special
software developed at NCAR displayed the radar data and the aircraft
position in real time for directing operations. It also objectively
identified storms for evaluating the results.
=> Mennonite Disaster Service Update
Burgaw, North Carolina
DISASTER: FLOOD
PROJECT START DATE: 11/15/99
VOLUNTEERS TO DATE: 707
JOBS STARTED: 49, JOBS COMPLETED: 40
01/16/01: We were pleased to attend another MDS house dedication and
celebrate
the beginning of a new lifestyle for Elnora Graham and her brother Clifford.
This is the first time that Elnora and Clifford have lived in a home with
plumbing. They are quite excited. The home looks beautiful and the community
has
come together to buy them new furniture, bedding and the needed decor. Women
from Elnora's church prepared a wonderful meal and served it to the MDS
volunteers following the dedication last week.
We are now starting construction on a new batch of homes. We are also
finishing
work on the homes that we started before Christmas. Some of these homes are
now
being drywalled. They will soon be ready for trim, cupboards and flooring.
Between the framing and the finish work, every skill and trade is needed
here in
Burgaw. With nine jobsites on the go, we have no problem keeping busy.
We have recently been joined by several new long-term staff. Tiffany Craig
is
joining us for three months from Winnipeg, MB. Kevin and Ryan from
Saskatchewan
will be with MDS for six months. Derek Falk from Crystal City, MB will be
with
us for a month. Dale and Kalvin from Riverton, MB will be here for six
weeks.
Long- term staff returning from Christmas break include Jakob and Lilli
Rempel,
Martha Moyer, Nathan and Danielle and Dean and myself. There is a grand
total of
13 long termers. This is a large group, but we have a lot of job sites going
and
it is great to have the support.
Please continue to keep us in your thoughts and prayers as we face new road
blocks and challenges every week. Thanks.
Roxie
If you would like to volunteer in Burgaw, call the project at (910)
259-8601.
The project directors are Nathan and Danielle Koslowsky. Mail can be sent to
321
Pinkney Road, Burgaw, N.C. 28425. E-mail: mennods1{at}juno.com
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
---- Snow Hill, North Carolina DISASTER: FLOOD PROJECT START DATE: 12/01/99 VOLUNTEERS TO DATE: 296 JOBS STARTED: 45, JOBS COMPLETED: 37 01/12/01: It was great to be home for the holidays, to get together with friends and family and enjoy the many blessings of the Christmas season. While we were gone the Tyndalls were able to move into their new home. This week the Diggs home was completed to the point where we can call for the rough-in inspections. The Worthington home is ready for the joists and, following inspection, we will be able to frame the Chase home. When the weather is not suitable for working outside, we have a number of indoor rehabs to keep us busy. Henry & Pearl DueckFraming is set to begin next week on the Chase home. Volunteers will be installing exterior siding and hanging drywall on a second home. To volunteer call Henry and Pearl Dueck at (252) 747- 9261. Mail can be sent to 398 Highway 58 South, Snow Hill, NC 28580. E-mail: mennods2{at}juno.com
---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---- 2001 All-Unit Meeting: Winkler, Manitoba If you will be attending the All-Unit Meeting in Winkler, please be prepared to provided updated contact information for yourself, INCLUDING E-MAIL ADDRESSES.
If you have yet to register for that event, take note that the registration form you received is incomplete. The address listed for submitting those registrations does not include the postal code. Please make sure that you send your registrations to the following address:
MDS 2001,134 Plaza Drive, WINNIPEG, MB R3T 5K9
If you do not have a registration form or you would like to request more information, please call MDS at 204-261-6381.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---- Princeville, North Carolina DISASTER: FLOOD PROJECT START DATE: 12/11/00 01/10/01: Volunteers are currently helping Habitat for Humanity complete the homes that were framed by MDS between Christmas and New Years. MDS plans to begin framing one of our own homes next week. Volunteers are still being scheduled for February and beyond. The current project directors in Princeville are Gerry and Doreen Klassen. To volunteer call (252) 824-5234. Mail can be sent to 310 Mutual Blvd., Princeville NC, 27886
---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---- Whiteville, North Carolina DISASTER: FLOOD 01/10/01: Whiteville is not scheduling any volunteers before February. Stay tuned for new information as the situation may change. If you would like to volunteer in Whiteville, call the project at (910) 640-6689. The project directors are Lowell and Lydia Cender. Mail can be sent to 217 N Madison, Whiteville, NC 28472. E-mail: mennods1{at}juno.com
Ted Houser Communications Coordinator Mennonite Disaster Service http://www.mds.mennonite.net
=> Classified Ads
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FREE 30 days of StormWarn by Email, Pager, PCS/GSM Phone, Business Fax at no cost* Sign up today and you'll receive no obligation, no commitment StormWarn . If you find it helpful, you can then decide to continue service at very low rates. Your account is held in strictest confidence and you won't keep hearing from us if you decide not to keep the service. We believe in the value of StormWarn, and we think you will too. *Direct pages and faxes are limited to 50 bulletins during the trial period. http://www.stormwarn.com/index.asp?a=10296
=> Links Area
WINTER STORM SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS California This GOES-8 image shows a winter storm system located over the southern Plains that dumped heavy snow across parts of northern Arizona, northern New Mexico, and Colorado on Tuesday morning. Blowing snow and slippery roads have resulted in hazardous traveling conditions throughout the region. http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Storms/US_Plains/STMusPL016_G8.jpg
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BINDU) Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone 05S (Bindu) was located in the South Indian Ocean near 21.8S and 62.1E at 06:00 UTC. Bindu was moving west-southwestward at 11 knots with maximum sustained winds estimated at 40 knots, gusts to 50 knots. http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Tropical/IndOcean/TRCbindu016_MT.jpg
ASH PLUME FROM SOUFRIERE HILLS VOLCANO Montserrat This GOES-8 image shows a plume of ash extending west from Soufriere Hills volcano on Montserrat. According to the Montserrat Volcano Observatory, this ash plume is the result of continuous rockfalls and pyroclastic flows. http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Volcano/Montserrat/VSHsouf016_G8.jpg
The International Association of Chiefs of Police will hold it's annual PIO section meeting in Park City, Utah this year.
The conference is May 16-19 at the Inn at Prospector Square in Park City. The cost to attend is $35 for IACP PIO section members, $50 for members of IACP(but not it's PIO section) or the National Sheriff's Association, and $125 for nonmembers. If you are interested in more information about this or to request a brochure, contact Rita Adams from the Salt Lake City Police Department at Rita.Adams{at}ci.slc.ut.us
U.S. State Department offers $5 million reward for Cole information http://www.cnn.com/2001/US/01/16/cole.reward/index.html
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