[STORMREPORTS] Florida Winter Weather Discussion

From: thomas giella (tgiellaweather{at}hotmail.com)
Date: Mon Jan 01 2001 - 20:01:20 EST


  Issued 01/01/01 7:00 PM For Tuesday morning 01/02/01 it looks like a light
freeze north central with near freezing some spots central. Mid and high
clouds ahead of the next cold front should preclude a widespread freeze
tonight. Wednesday morning 01/03/01 it looks like a more widespread freeze.
Thursday morning 01/04/01 looks to be the coldest yet with a hard freeze
into portions of the Everglades. Friday morning 01/05/01 also looks like a
significant freeze event, with a lesser freeze event for Saturday morning
01/06/01. After that it looks like a 10 day period with more normal
temperatures but also more precipitation.
  Issued 01/01/01 11:00 AM HAPPY NEW YEAR. A significant freeze event once
again occured across the state this morning. Tentatively the statewide
minimum temperature was 18 deg. at Geneva in the north. As forecasted
temperatures were held up across the panhandle north due to encroaching
cloud cover from the west. Early this morning snow was falling in southern
Mississippi, southern Alabama, panhandle Florida and southern Georgia. Some
high cloudiness did move across the peninsula overnight, holding up
temperatures from otherwise disasterously low levels. The chances for frozen
precipitation across the north central peninsula continue low (20-30%), as
the upper level disturbance over the gulf coast and cyclogenisis occuring in
the Gulf Of Mexico are not phasing. Florida must brace itself for one more
major surge of arctic air on Wednesday 1/3/01, with a lesser surge on Friday
1/5/01. A warming trend should begin on Sunday 1/7/01, as the persistent
east coast longwave trough pattern begins to break down. Temperatures should
return to more seasonable levels for at least 10 days, before more cold
returns.

http://giellaweather.tripod.com/lowsnow.gif Latest Visible Photo Of
Developing Low Pressure Center In Western Gulf Of Mexico

http://giellaweather.tripod.com/850t5.gif 12/31/00 Run Of ECMWF Model For
850 MB Temperature For Thursday 1/4/01

http://giellaweather.tripod.com/500h3.gif 12/31/00 Run Of ECMWF Model For
500 MB Heights For Thursday 1/4/01

As follows is our minimum temperature forecast verification.

Valid For Monday Morning 1/1/01 For Inland Rural Areas Only

Panhandle North- Low 20's
Observed-
Crestview 20
Tallahassee 20

Forecast North- Mid To Upper Teens
Observed-
Geneva 18
Alachua 19
Perry 20

Forecast North Central- Upper Teens To Low 20's
Observed-
Brooksville 20
Ocala 21
Orlando 30 (Urban)

Forecast Central- Low To Mid 20's
Observed-
Scottsmoor 22
West Plant City 23 Ground 19
Dover 28
Tampa 32 (Urban)

Forecast South Central- Mid To Upper 20's
Observed-
Ona 26
Vero Beach 29
Ft. Pierce 30

Forecast Northern Everglades- Mid To Upper 20's
Observed-
Belle Glade 26
Immokalee 27
Punta Gorda 28
Ft. Myers 29
Okeechobee 30

Southern Everglades- Upper 20's To Low 30's
Observed-
West Kendall 35 (Urban)
Homestead 37

Take Care,

Thomas F. Giella
P.O. Box 1987
Plant City, Fl. 33564

Email: tgiellaweather{at}hotmail.com
Phone: 813-764-9555
Fax: 813-764-8468

Thomas Giella Weather Forecasting And Consulting Services:
http://giellaweather.tripod.com

Plant City Fl. Area Business Links:
http://kn4lf.tripod.com/index-15.html

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