The USA Disaster Situation Report
The Daily USA Disaster Situation Report
For November 17, 2000
Christopher Effgen, Editor, host{at}disastercenter.com
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IN THIS ISSUE
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=> USA Daily Temperature Extremes
=> Current Active National Weather Service Warnings:
=> Severe Weather Probability Forecast
=> Precipitation Forecast, Excessive Rainfall, Heavy Snow And/Or Significant
Icing Forecast
=> USA Flood Report
=> USA Fire Report and Forecast
=> USA Earthquake Report
=> Yesterday's USA Severe Weather Reports
=> Guest Column-
=> Sponsored by the SandbaggerTM
**** ARTICLES ****
=> Article NDIS -- Effective Disaster Warnings -- report
=> Article Stage One Electrical Emergency Issued Yesterday in California For
Fourth Day
This Week
=> Article Why Flood Maps are Important to You
=> Article Alaska Division Of Emergency Services Daily Situation Update
=> Article Operation America Buckles Up Children Mobilization --- November
20--26,
2000
=> Classified Ads
=> Links Area
=> How to Be Featured as our Guest Columnist
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Sponsored by the THE ROTHSTEIN CATALOG ON DISASTER RECOVERY
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=> Subscribe/Unsubscribe information
The Daily USA Disaster Situation Report
For November 17, 2000, 2000
Christopher Effgen, Editor, host{at}disastercenter.com
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IN THIS ISSUE
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=> USA Daily Temperature Extremes
National Temperature Extremes
High Thu...86 At Brownsville TX
Low Fri...17 Below Zero At Craig CO
=> Current Active National Weather Service Warnings:
Active Warnings:
Updated Fri Nov 17 11:12:35 2000
Non Precipitation
California
...STRONG SANTA ANA WIND EVENT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
Georgia
South Carolina
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING TONIGHT...
Utah
HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS
WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST UTAH.
Winter Storm
Idaho
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN
Michigan
ACCUMULATING SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON
Montana
BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY TODAY
New Mexico
WINTER STORM WATCH TONIGHT AND/OR SATURDAY FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS
New York
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING...
Ohio
Pennsylvania
A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE
SNOW BELT OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND EXTREME NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...
South Dakota
OCCASIONAL SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM NORTHEASTERN WYOMING INTO
PORTIONS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY.
Texas
WINTER STORM WATCH TONIGHT AND/OR SATURDAY FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...
Wyoming
OCCASIONAL SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM NORTHEASTERN WYOMING INTO
PORTIONS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY
=> Severe Weather Probability Forecast
The forecast probability of an event is by the stated percentage or greater
for the event, within 25 miles of any point for the area described.
Tornado Risk - Slight
There is less than a 2% probability of a tornado.
Hail Risk - Slight
There is less than a 5% probability of hail 3/4 inch or larger.
Wind Risk - Slight
There is less than a 5% probability of winds in excess of 50 knots.
Tomorrow's Risk -
There is less than a 5% probability of any severe weather tomorrow.
=> Precipitation Forecast, Excessive Rainfall, Heavy Snow And/Or
Significant
Icing Forecast
Precipitation Forecast
The 24 hour precipitation forecast is calling for over 1 inch of rainfall
over the central and eastern
inland and coastal areas of Texas and southwest and central south Louisiana.
The 24 - 48 hour precipitation forecast is calling for over 2 inches of
rainfall over southwest to
central east Louisiana and portions of southern Mississippi.
Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Rainfall is not expected to exceed flash flood values.
USA heavy snow and/or significant icing
The probability of heavy snow is low over far northwestern Wisconsin,
Michigan's northern
peninsula, the west northwest 1/2 of Michigan, far northeast Ohio, far
northwest Pennsylvania, far
western New York, and central north New York.
The moderate probability area is over the center of Michigan's northern
Peninsula, northwest
Michigan, and portion of: far northeast Ohio, far northwest Pennsylvania,
far western New York,
and central north New York.
The probability of significant icing is less than 20 percent.
Tomorrow the probability of heavy snow is low over far northwestern
Wisconsin, Michigan's
northern peninsula, the west northwest 1/2 of Michigan, far northeast Ohio,
far northwest
Pennsylvania, far western New York, and central north New York.
The moderate probability area is over the center of Michigan's northern
Peninsula, northwest
Michigan, and portion of: far northeast Ohio, far northwest Pennsylvania,
far western New York,
and central north New York.
The probability of significant icing is less than 20 percent.
=> USA Flood Report
NATIONAL HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS
1000 EDT FRI NOV 17, 2000
FLOOD SUMMARY
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE LOWER REACHES OF ALABAMA CAUSED PONDING AND
MINOR
FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS. RECENT RAINS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS IS
PRODUCING
MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING ALONG THE NUECES AND GUADALUPE RIVERS.
RIVER LEVELS
ARE FALLING BUT STILL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE ALONG THE TWO RIVERS RIVER
IN
MINNESOTA.
FLASH FLOODING:
FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND/OR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD
ADVISORIES
WERE ISSUED OVER THE LAST DAY FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS (IN
ALPHABETICAL
ORDER, BY STATE):
ALBAMA: MOBILE
RIVER FLOODING:
RIVERS AND STREAMS WITH LOCATIONS EITHER ABOVE FLOOD STAGE OR
EXPECTED TO
RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE INCLUDE (IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER, BY STATE):
ARKANSAS: CACHE RIVER
MINNESOTA: THE TWO RIVERS RIVER
TEXAS: GUALDALUPE AND NUECES RIVERS
=> USA Fire Report and Forecast
Fire report has not been updated since wednesday
=> USA Earthquake Report
UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY
NATIONAL EARTHQUAKE INFORMATION CENTER
GOLDEN, COLORADO
LISTS OF U.S. EARTHQUAKES IN THE LAST 30 HOURS
Prepared by USGS/NEIC 2000 NOV 17 at 00:15 UTC
EARTHQUAKES IN WEST CENTRAL UNITED STATES
(35.8 TO 40.3 N, 102.0 TO 125.0 W)
Date Time (UTC) Lat Long Depth Magnitude
2000 NOV 15 20:17:24.00 40.0 N 120.7 W 5 km 3.6
15 miles NW of Portola, California
EARTHQUAKES IN NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
(40.3 TO 50.0 N, 102.0 TO 125.0 W)
Date Time (UTC) Lat Long Depth Magnitude
2000 NOV 16 13:06:53.00 40.5 N 119.5 W 3 km 3.8
15 miles SSW of Gerlach, Nevada
7.6 Mag. NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.
00/11/16 04:54:56.34
NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.
Epicenter: -3.965 152.316
MW 7.6
7.4 Mag. NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.
00/11/16 07:42:16.26
NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.
Epicenter: -5.238 153.060
MW 7.4
=> Yesterday's USA Severe Weather Reports
Note: All data is considered preliminary
Tornado Reports
No reports received
Hail Reports
No reports received
Wind Reports
Time Speed Location County State Lat Lon Comments
2100 UNK VENICE PLAQUEMINES LA 2928 8936 FOUR MOBILE HOMES WERE
DAMAGED AND A FEW TREES WERE UPROOTED. REPORTED BY LAW
ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (NEW)
Fields marked UNK are unknown
All Times UTC
Wind Gusts in MPH
Hail Sizes in 1/100 of an Inch (75 = 0.75")
=> Guest Column
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**** ARTICLES ****
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=> NDIS -- Effective Disaster Warnings -- report
Report by the Working Group on
Natural Disaster Information Systems
Subcommittee on Natural Disaster Reduction
National Science and Technology Council
Committee on Environment and Natural Resources
November 2000
TABLE OF CONTENTS
General Information ...................................... 3
Transmittal Letter........................................ 4
Working Group On Natural Disaster Information Systems............. 5
Executive Summary and Recommendations....................... 6
Disaster Warnings: Technologies And Systems.................. 6
Recommendations..................................... 7
Scope Of This Report.................................. 8
1. Introduction......................................... 9
2. The Escalating Costs And Changing Nature Of Disasters...........11
3. Increasing Capabilities To Provide Accurate Warnings.............15
4. Issuing Effective Warnings...............................18
5. Warning Terminology..................................20
6. The Universal Digitally Coded Warning......................23
7. Alternatives For Funneling Warnings Into Broadcast Systems........24
8. Alternatives For Focusing Warnings On The People At Risk........26
9. The Emergency Alert System (EAS)........................28
10. Radio Broadcast Data System (RBDS).......................30
11. Other Alternatives For Delivering Warnings...................32
12. Preparedness And Response Plans..........................37
13. Alternatives For In-Depth Information.......................38
14. A Plan For Action....................................39
References
Appendix 1: List Of Acronyms...............................43
Appendix 2: EAS Operations And Plans.........................45
Appendix 3: Existing Federal Warning Systems....................49
Appendix 4: Primary Federal World-Wide-Web Sites
For Disaster Information..................................55
Acknowledgements.......................................56
The Report can be accessed at:
http://www.nnic.noaa.gov/CENR/cenr.html
and downloaded from:
http://www.nnic.noaa.gov/CENR/NDIS_rev_Oct27.pdf
=> Stage One Electrical Emergency Issued Yesterday in California For
Fourth Day This
Week
Energy Conservation throughout the State is Encouraged
(Folsom, CA) An anticipated shortfall of operating reserves has forced the
California Independent
System Operator (California ISO) to issue a Stage One Electrical Emergency
effective 4:00 p.m.
today, Thursday, November 16, 2000. Statewide energy conservation is urged
to help meet the
forecasted peak power demand of 32,400 megawatts expected at approximately
6:00 p.m. The
Stage One Emergency, and the call for conservation measures, is in effect
until 10:00 p.m. this
evening.
Unseasonably cold weather continues to produce a high demand for energy
during a month when
several power plant owners are completing major maintenance projects on
generators. Nearly
12,000 megawatts of generation, a combination of scheduled and unplanned
plant outages, remain
unavailable today. In addition, the amount of imported power available from
the Pacific Northwest
today was limited because the power is needed in Washington and
Oregon-states also suffering from
the current cold snap. Weather forecasts are calling for warmer temperatures
this weekend.
A Stage One Emergency is required when the state's electricity operating
reserves fall below seven
percent. Stage One of the state's Electrical Emergency Plan is initiated to
advise the public of
potential power shortages and to ask all of the state's customers to
conserve electricity to ensure
there will be enough power to meet demand. The request for demand reduction
is not intended to
disrupt employment or curtail industrial production or commerce.
=> Why Flood Maps are Important to You
The mission of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) is to reduce the
loss and suffering
associated with the number one natural disaster -- flood. The NFIP is much
more than insurance.
Since its inception in 1968, the NFIP has been instrumental in promoting
responsible floodplain
management and discouraging development in flood-prone areas. Today, more
than 20,000
communities have voluntarily elected to participate in the NFIP.
The backbone of the NFIP is the flood map. These maps tell us where the
flood risks are based on
local hydrology, topology, precipitation, flood protection measures such as
levees, and other
scientific data. Due to land development, variable weather patterns, and
other factors, these maps
continually change.
http://www.fema.gov/nfip/
=> Alaska Division Of Emergency Services Daily Situation Update
As of 8:00 AM, November 16, 2000
Preparedness Level 3
ISSUES ADDRESSED IN THIS REPORT:
STATEWIDE
Alaska Volcanoes Update
Russian EMERCON Visit
INTERIOR REGION
High Wind Warning
SOUTHWEST REGION
Storm Impacts
SOUTHCENTRAL REGION
Earthquake
STATE EMERGENCY COORDINATION CENTER OPERATIONS
(Entries that begin with an * are new items since the previous day's
report. Changes in an item from the previous day's report are noted with
bold text.)
STATEWIDE
Alaska Volcanoes Update
Seismic activity is monitored in real time at 21 volcanoes in Alaska.
Some of these volcanoes may currently display anomalous seismicity, but
they are not considered to be at a dangerous level of unrest. Spurr,
Redoubt, Iliamna, Augustine, Snowy, Griggs, Katmai, Novarupta, Trident,
Mageik, Martin, Aniakchak, Pavlof, Dutton, Isanotski, Shishaldin, Fisher,
Westdahl, Akutan, Makushin, and Great Sitkin volcanoes are all at or near
normal levels of background seismicity. Volcano information is available
at http://www.avo.alaska.edu or 786-7478.
Russian EMERCON Visit
A group of representatives from the Russian EMERCON agency (their
equivalent of our Federal Emergency Management Agency) is visiting Alaska
this week. They will be hosted by the Division of Emergency Services on
Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday and receive briefings and tours of local
State and National Guard facilities. They will also tour the West
Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center and the Palmer Division of Forestry
Fire Center. Further information is available from Wayne Rush, DES at
428-7032.
INTERIOR REGION
* High Wind Warning
A High Wind Warning is in effect for the Tanana Valley along the Alaska
Range. South winds of 30 to 50 mph began overnight in the Healy Canyon
and Delta Junction areas. The strong winds will continue through the day,
diminish tonight and pick up again on Friday. Strong winds will persist
along the Alaska Range through the weekend.
SOUTHWEST REGION
Storm Impacts
Late in the day, November 13th, Division of Emergency Services and the
National Weather Service received preliminary reports of damage from the
recent storm in the Bering Sea. Coastal flooding and erosion was
affecting the communities of Port Heiden, Hooper Bay, Togiak and
Kwigillingok. DES has confirmed with the communities the extent of
damages. At this time only Kwigillingok has asked for State assistance to
repair boardwalks moved off their foundations. DES is coordinating with
DOT and the Community for funding assistance. Further information is
available from Marty Fine or Stacy Christoffersen, DES at 428-7000.
SOUTHCENTRAL REGION
Earthquake
A minor earthquake occurred on November 15th at 4:40 AM in the Mat-Su
Valley. It had a preliminary magnitude of 3.2 and was located 36 miles
north of Skwentna and 82 miles northwest of Wasilla. No reports of damage
have been received.
STATE EMERGENCY COORDINATION CENTER (SECC) OPERATIONS
Alaska Division of Emergency Services Duty Officer and Operations: Jim
Mackin is the duty officer until November 21st. To reach the duty officer
dial (907) 428-7000 or 1-800-478-2337, 24 hours per day. The Division of
Emergency Services has a web site available for information on emergency
topics at http://www.ak-prepared.com. The SECC is at Preparedness Level 3.
=> Operation America Buckles Up Children Mobilization --- November
20--26, 2000
November 20--26 is Operation ABC (America Buckles Up Children) Mobilization
week. The
seventh biannual event promotes education and awareness of child-passenger
safety to decrease the
incidence of child-passenger fatalities and injuries. This effort is
sponsored by the Air Bag & Seat
Belt Safety Campaign, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
(NHTSA), and the
National Transportation Safety Board, and is supported by organizations such
as Mothers Against
Drunk Driving and law enforcement agencies.
During the week, more than 8000 law enforcement agencies will increase
activities to protect child
passengers (e.g., ticketing drivers who fail to restrain children properly,
setting up safety
checkpoints, and arresting drivers deemed legally impaired); 64% of child
passengers aged <14
years killed in alcohol-related crashes were riding in the vehicle with the
drinking driver (1). Motor
vehicle crashes were the leading cause of death in 1998 among children aged
<14 years residing in
the United States (2). Additional information on child-passenger safety and
Operation ABC
Mobilization is available from NHTSA, telephone (888) 327-4236 or on the
World-Wide Web,
http://www.nhtsa.dot.gov/people/outreach/safesobr/abcmobilization*.
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FREE 30 days of StormWarn by Email, Pager, PCS/GSM Phone, Business Fax at no
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Sign up today and you'll receive no obligation, no commitment StormWarn . If
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=> Links Area
FIRES IN BRITISH COLUMBIA, OREGON, AND WASHINGTON
British Columbia and NW US
Heat signatures are visible from a number of fires burning in British
Columbia, Oregon, and
Washington. Snow cover over
various areas of the region is also visible.
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Fires/US_Northwest/FHSusNW320_N4.jpg
RAIN MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
Southeast US
A large area of clouds and rain is moving across the southeast ahead of an
eastward moving cold
front.
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Storms/US_Southeast/STMusSE321_G8.jpg
* Use of Diphtheria Toxoid-Tetanus Toxoid-Acellular Pertussis
Vaccine as a Five-Dose Series: Supplemental Recommendations
of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP)
http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/rr4913a1.htm
* Public Health Consequences Among First Responders to
Emergency Events Associated With Illicit Methamphetamine
Laboratories --- Selected States, 1996--1999
http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm4945a1.htm
* Progress Toward Poliomyelitis Eradication --- Eastern
Mediterranean Region, 1999--September 2000
http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm4945a2.htm
* Notice to Readers: Shortage of Tetanus and Diphtheria
Toxoids
http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm4945a3.htm
* Notice to Readers: Operation ABC Mobilization ---
November 20--26, 2000
http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm4945a4.htm
* Notifiable Diseases/Deaths in Selected Cities Weekly
Information
http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm4945md.htm
=> How to Be Featured as our Guest Columnist
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