Initiated by Naval Research Laboratory Monterey, Ca. 90L
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>…
CESAR Group ADVISORY 1 Proprietary Number CAI-28-0925-00 >
DATE: 09/25/00
TIME OF MESSAGE: 1803 Z
CESAR Group CF > 65% {at} 1803 Z
ADVISORY 1
CESAR Group Canada Watch Area Proprietary Investigation: CAI-28-0925-00 > > is
issuing an ADVISORY 1 on a Weather area south of Jamaica at the time of this
ADVISORY. This area has a weak inflow and presently demonstrates some
low-level circulation. CAI-28-0925-00 > indicates some organization and is
presently undergoing strong enhancement because of the present climatology of
the SSTA's +0.5°>+1.0°C and Sea Surface temperatures of +29.0°C. The
Atmospheric conditions are moderately friendly for strengthening with no
vertical wind shear capping the system. To the northeast a pocket of wind
shear has developed at 20Kts. There is a convergence package weak to moderate
at +5>+10 over CAI-28-0925-00 > and the lower troposphere temperatures up to
an altitude of 20,000ft are warmer or 700 Mb, beyond this altitude it becomes
cooler. The forecasted wave heights are 4-7ft with rain rates of 25-30mm per
hour confined to the central quad and 15mm per hour extending approximately
60-70 Nautical miles to all four cardinal points. Surface winds measured at
10m are noted at 16-22Kts with gusts up to 30Kts. It appears to be moving
northerly but at this point the CG Team considers it stationary until further
data is collected. The forecast for the next 6 hours is that weak
strengthening may occur and all interests should monitor this system closely
for development and a possible irregular path. This Advisory also includes
associated weather, all interested parties should be aware of severe weather
that may initiate micro bursts or other weather anomalies including,
tornadoes, heavy rain, flooding and collateral damage from mudslides. Tides
continue to be above normal deviation> +12mm.
1. Present estimated position of Weather Area Axis (+/- 1°)=
13.2°N>-73.28°W>
16.8°N>-77.32°W
2. Special Note: "Quick Scan" ATTACHED
3. Next Message: When Required
4. This Message: is in effect until 1903 Hrs Z 0925-00
5. Next estimated position on a <7> Hour basis> = undetermined
6. Speed in nautical mile (Knots)=Appears to be stationary.
For additional information, emergency preparedness and procedures refer to
You're Caribbean National Emergency Management Agencies, the Local or Regional
Met offices and for tracks and probable landfall refer to NRL Monterey or NAV
Ops Atlantic. Text, Imagery and "Quick Scan" of these files at:
http://come.to/cesargroup\
THIS ADVISORY 1 IS FOR USE AS GUIDANCE ONLY
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and in the subject line put unsubscribe.
CG Team ..Little
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Sat Sep 30 2000 - 20:08:38 EDT