Hi,
Recon reported flight level temperature of 20C within 7nm of the core and
this is consistent with
yesterdays flight level temperature readings.. So I believe Florence is
totally warm core at the surface through 500mb and no doubt transitioned
from cold core and probably was a hybrid for some period of time.
But there is no baroclinic assist in this case thats causing the
strengthening, so while the convection is relatively minimal for what we
would expect, it's enough to be the principal engine thats drives Florence.
What is unusual is a low right through 200mb sitting on top the storm when
normally it should be a anti-cyclone [this is why there is so little
relative outflow], so perhaps in that sense it might still have a hybrid
feel to it, the instability aloft helping the convection to flare up
occasionally. I'm not sure if there is a strict definition on "hybrids"
versus though I presume that "warm core" systems are expected to be warm
core all the way
to 200mb, can anyone confirm?
But it seems like the last few years have had some odd storms out in that
region? Anyways Florence might become a hybrid again depending on how it
interacts with this big forecasted trough forming on the east coast in a
couple days.
I've been a little surprised at some of the TPC's classifications [and lack
of classification] but it's been a strange season with an almost mid-winter
feel to it in the tropics.. Only just now is it suddenly returning to normal
[and subsequently seeing a response]. Notice how awful the SHIPS intensity
models have been for all the systems thus far?? Apparently it cannot handle
shearing situations well so it calls for intensification when the storm is
being ripped to shreds... Though the model is considered very accurate when
there is no
major shearing, hence its call for 82 knots for the system soon to be in the
Gulf bares close watching, and it goes for 76 knots for Florence which is
not unreasonable if she can develop a more consistent eye wall.
Have a good one,
Mike
-----Original Message-----
From: kn4lf{at}webtv.net <kn4lf{at}webtv.net>
To: wx-forecast{at}egroups.com <wx-forecast{at}egroups.com>;
stormreports{at}casi-internal <stormreports{at}casi-internal>
Date: Tuesday, September 12, 2000 7:00 PM
Subject: [STORMREPORTS] Florence/Florida
Am I the only one noticing very minimal convection around Florence's
low level center?
What a strange year for identifying tropical systems whether it be
private meteorologists or the NHC We have called cold core lows tropical
depressions, called tropical depressions tropical waves, called tropical
storms cold core lows, called hybrid systems hurricanes.
Then there have been instances of delaying identification of obvious
tropical systems as such and keeping long dead tropical systems going.
By the way here in inland sunny central Florida on Tuesday 9/12/00 the
dewpoint temp. dropped into the upper 50's, with relative humidity in
the mid 30's%, making our low 90 degree temps. feel like no big deal. I
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