CESAR Group Priority Alert Proprietary Number CAP-24-0911-00 >
DATE: 09/12/00
TIME OF PRIORITY ALERT 1: 2319 Z
CESAR Group CF > 75% {at} 2319 Z
PRIORITY ALERT- REPEAT PRIORITY ALERT
CESAR Group Canada Watch Area Proprietary Investigation: CAP-24-0911-00 > is
listing a PRIORITY ALERT 1 on this Weather area as of 2319 Z. This system has
good inflow and there is visible low level circulation. The central quadrant
is visible with infrared and visible imagery. The weather area has strong
convective clouds and is clearly recognisable by IR imagery. The surface
conditions are highly conducive to rapid development and the atmospheric
environment is also conducive for strong development. The vertical wind shear
is approximately 5Kts south of the system and poses no threat to
CAP-24-0911-00 >. The lower troposphere is friendly for rapid strengthening,
as the temperature is baseline <0>° compared to last year, which was slightly
warmer. Therefore, the forecast is that CAP-24-0911-00 > will path
north-westerly for the next 24 hours on a course of 310°. Winds accompanying
CAP-24-0911-00 > are 25Kts-35Kts, but the CG Team forecasts this to strengthen
in the next 12 Hours. Rain rates vary but appear to be 25-30mm per hour. Sea
Level Deviation are
= +12-14mm. REPEAT>There is a strong probability that the system will
strengthen with in the next 24 Hours. This PRIORITY ALERT also includes
associated weather, NEMA Agencies should be aware of severe weather that may
initiate micro bursts or other weather anomalies including high winds,
tornadoes, heavy rain, flooding and collateral damage from mudslides. Tides
continue to be above normal deviation> 8>+12mm along the Central America an
the Greater Antilles coast lines up to the Gulf Coast with deviations of
+32mm. Jamaica should be making preparations for possible collateral or direct
impact of this storm.
1. Present estimated position of Weather Area (+/- 1°)=16.97°N>-81.5°W 1800
Z Radius of Weather Area is approximately 600 NM
2. Special Note: Visible Imagery Attached
3. Next Message: 1330 Z 0913-00 Protocol Rescinded for the next 18 Hours
4. This Message: is in effect until 1330 Z 0913-00
5. Next estimated position on a 12 Hour basis> 19.0°N> -82.0°W
6. Speed in nautical mile (Knots)= 10Kts Direction north-west
approximately 310°
For any information on this system, emergency preparedness and procedures
refer to Local or Regional Governments their International Agencies and or the
Caribbean National Emergency Management Agencies.
THIS PRIORITY ALERT IS FOR USE AS GUIDANCE ONLY
You are subscribed to the CANADIAN Environmental Science and Research Group
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END OF PRIORITY ALERT
CG Team Patterson
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