The USA Disaster Situation Report
The Daily USA Disaster Situation Report
For September11, 2000
Christopher Effgen, Editor, host{at}disastercenter.com
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IN THIS ISSUE
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=> USA Daily Temperature Extremes
=> Special Notes
=> Current Tropical Weather Outlook
=> Current Active National Weather Service Warnings:
=> Severe Weather Probability Forecast - Moderatly Severe
=> Precipitation Forecast and Excessive Rainfall Forecast
=> USA Flood Report
=> USA Fire Report and Forecast
=> USA Earthquake Report
=> Yesterday's USA Severe Weather Reports
=> Guest Column
=> Classified Ads
=> Links Area
=> How to Be Featured as our Guest Columnist
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The Daily USA Disaster Situation Report
For September 11, 2000
Christopher Effgen, Editor, host{at}disastercenter.com
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IN THIS ISSUE
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=> USA Daily Temperature Extremes
=> Special Notes
=> Current Tropical Weather Outlook For The North Atlantic Caribbean Sea And
The Gulf Of Mexico
The National Hurricane Center has begun issuing advisories on tropical
depression ten...located about 475 miles west-southwest of Bermuda.
The area of low pressure over the central Gulf of Mexico remains weak and
disorganized. However...upper-level winds may become more favorable for
development during the next day or two. If necessary...an Air Force Reserve
unit reconnaissance aircraft will investigate the area later today.
The tropical wave located about 1250 miles east of the Windward Islands has
become better organized this morning. Additional development is possible
over the next day or two as this system moves to the west or west-northwest.
Shower activity remains disorganized with the tropical wave moving westward
through the east-central Caribbean Sea. Upper-level winds are becoming less
favorable for development to occur.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through Tuesday.
=> Current Active National Weather Service Warnings:
Active Warnings:
Updated Mon Sep 11 12:11:23 2000
Flash Flood
Indiana
Kentucky
Ohio
...HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING...
RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT UP TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN SINCE 6 AM
EDT
Flood
Wisconsin
A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE BIG EAU PLEINE RIVER. THE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT...UNTIL THE RIVER FALLS TO WITHIN ITS BANKS.
Hurricane/Tropical Storm
United States
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.4 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT THU SEP 14 2000
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
30.1N 73.6W 99 X X X 99 SAVANNAH GA X X X 7 7
30.0N 74.0W 42 X X X 42 CHARLESTON SC X X X 7 7
30.0N 74.0W 42 X X X 42 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 6 6
MYSM 241N 745W X X X 3 3 WILMINGTON NC X X X 6 6
MYEG 235N 758W X X X 2 2 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X 1 4 5
MYAK 241N 776W X X X 3 3 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 4 4
MYNN 251N 775W X X 2 4 6 KEY WEST FL X X X 2 2
MYGF 266N 787W X X 3 7 10 MARCO ISLAND FL X X X 4 4
BERMUDA X X X 3 3 FT MYERS FL X X X 5 5
MARATHON FL X X X 2 2 VENICE FL X X X 4 4
MIAMI FL X X 1 4 5 TAMPA FL X X X 6 6
W PALM BEACH FL X X 1 7 8 CEDAR KEY FL X X X 6 6
FT PIERCE FL X X 2 7 9 ST MARKS FL X X X 4 4
COCOA BEACH FL X X 1 8 9 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 3 3
DAYTONA BEACH FL X X 1 8 9 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 2 2
JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 8 8 GULF 29N 85W X X X 3 3
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8AM TUE TO 8PM TUE
C FROM 8PM TUE TO 8AM WED
D FROM 8AM WED TO 8AM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
Special Marine
Michigan
* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR... THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN FROM
SOUTH HAVEN TO MUSKEGON AND THE ADJOINING WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO MID LAKE *
UNTIL 1230 PM EDT
* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR... THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN FROM
MUSKEGON TO MANISTEE AND THE ADJOINING WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO MID LAKE *
UNTIL 1215 PM EDT
=> Severe Weather Probability Forecast
The forecast probability of an event is by the stated percentage or greater
for the event, within 25 miles of any point for the area described.
Tornado Risk - Slightly Moderate
There is a 2 % probability of a tornado over Wisconsin except the far
southern area, and the northwestern area, and over far southeastern area.
The 5% probability area covers central Wisconsin
Hail Risk - Moderately Severe
The 5% probability area for hail 3/4 inch or larger covers eastern Kansas,
far southeaster Nebraska, Missouri except the southern area, Illinois except
the south southeast area, Iowa except the west northwest area, far southeast
Minnesota, the northwest 1/3 of Indiana, far northwest Ohio, Michigan, and
Wisconsin except the far northwest area.
The 15% probability area covers northern Missouri, the northwest 1/2 of
Illinois, the southeast 1/2 of Iowa, far southeast Minnesota, northwest
Indiana, Michigan except the far northwest and far southeast areas, and
Wisconsin except the northwest area.
The 25% probability area covers north northeast Missouri, the northwest 1/3
of Illinois, the southeast 1/2 of Iowa, far southeast Minnesota, Michigan
except the far northern area and the central and eastern areas, and
Wisconsin except the northwest area.
The 35% probability area covers the far northern Illinois, northeast Iowa ,
far southeast Minnesota, northeast Michigan, and Wisconsin except the
northwest area.
Wind Risk - Severe
The 10% probability area for winds in excess of 65 knots covers northern
Illinois, northeast Iowa , far southeast Minnesota, northeast Michigan, and
Wisconsin except the northwest area.
The 5% probability are for winds in excess of 50 knots covers eastern
Kansas, far southeaster Nebraska, Missouri except the southern area,
Illinois except the south southeast area, Iowa except the west northwest
area, far southeast Minnesota, the northwest 1/3 of Indiana, far northwest
Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin except the far northwest area.
The 15% probability area covers north central and northern Missouri, the
northwest 3/4 of Illinois, the southeast 2/3 of Iowa , far southeast
Minnesota, north northwest Indiana, Michigan except the far northern part,
and Wisconsin except the northwest area.
The 25% probability area covers north northeast Missouri, the northwest 1/3
of Illinois, the southeast 1/2 of Iowa, far southeast Minnesota, Michigan
except the far northern area and the central and eastern areas, and
Wisconsin except the northwest area.
The 35% probability area covers the far northern Illinois, northeast Iowa ,
far southeast Minnesota, northeast Michigan, and Wisconsin except the
northwest area.
The 45% probability area covers central and southern Wisconsin
Tomorrow's Risk - Slight
There area no areas at risk for severe weather tomorrow.
Areas at a lesser degree of risk include central east Illinois, Indiana
except the far northern and far southern area, far northern Kentucky, and
central and western Ohio.
=> Precipitation Forecast and Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Precipitation Forecast
The 24 hr precipitation forecast covers far northeast Oklahoma, far
southeast Kansas, southwest Missouri, northwest Illinois, Wisconsin except
the northwest and southwest areas, and northwest Michigan, far southeast
Louisiana, far southern Mississippi, and far southwest Alabama.
The 24 - 48 hr precipitation forecast indicates no areas receiving more than
an inch of rainfall.
Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Flash flood values may be exceeded over central and southeast Wisconsin.
=> USA Flood Report
NATIONAL HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS
0930 AM EDT MON SEP 11 2000
FLOOD SUMMARY
FLOODING IN WISCONSIN
HEAVY RAINFALL, AS MUCH AS 6 TO 8 INCHES, FELL OVER WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY. THERE WERE REPORTS OF WIDESPREAD ROAD
CLOSURES, BASEMENT FLOODING, AND WASH-OUTS. HEAVY RAIN ALSO OCCURRED OVER
THE WEEKEND IN PARTS OF ARIZONA, FLORIDA, LOUISIANA, CONNECTICUT AND PUERTO
RICO. ON MONDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, AND FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
FLASH FLOODING:
FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND/OR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES
WERE ISSUED OVER THE WEEKEND FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS (IN ALPHABETICAL
ORDER, BY STATE):
ALASKA:
SUNDAY: CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING
ARIZONA:
SUNDAY: PIMA AND PINAL COUNIES
CONNECTICUT:
SATURDAY: NEW LONDON COUNTY
FLORIDA:
SATURDAY: ALACHUA, BAKER, BRADFORD, CLAY, COLUMBIA, DUVAL,
FLAGLER, GILCHRIST, LAKE, MARION, PUTNAM, ST. JOHNS, UNION AND
VOLUSIA COUNTIES
FRIDAY: CLAY, DUVAL AND ST. JOHNS COUNTIES
HAWAII:
SATURDAY: THE ISLAND OF HAWAII
ILLINOIS:
SUNDAY: COLES COUNTY
INDIANA:
SUNDAY: CLAY, DAVIESS, KNOX, PUTNAM AND OWEN COUNTIES
IOWA:
SUNDAY: LINN COUNTY
MICHIGAN:
SUNDAY: CALHOUN, CLINTON, EATON, INGHAM, JACKSON, KALAMAZOO AND
VAN BUREN COUNTIES
PUERTO RICO:
SUNDAY: THE MUNICIPALITIES OF AGUADA, AGUADILLA, ANASCO, BAYAMON,
CAMUY, CAROLINA, CATANO, GUAYNABO, HATILLO, ISABELA, LARES, LAS
MARIAS, QUEBRADILLAS, RINCON, TOA BAJA AND TRUJILLO ALTO.
WISCONSIN:
MONDAY: BROWN, CHIPPEWA, CLARK, DUNN, EAU CLAIRE, FLORENCE,
FOREST, LANGLADE, LINCOLN, MARATHON, MARINETTE, OUTGAMIE, PIERCE,
ST. CROIX, TAYLOR, WAUSHARA AND WINNEBAGO COUNTIES
FLOODING COLLAPSED SEVERAL BASEMENTS IN EAU CLAIRE CITY, EAU
CLAIRE COUNTY.
RIVER FLOODING:
RIVERS AND STREAMS WITH LOCATIONS EITHER ABOVE FLOOD STAGE OR EXPECTED TO
RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE INCLUDE (IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER, BY STATE):
FLORIDA: THE LITTLE MANATEE AND WITHLACOOCHEE RIVERS
VIRGINIA: THE BLACKWATER RIVER; THE CHOWAN BASIN
=> USA Fire Report and Forecast
INCIDENT MANAGEMENT SITUATION REPORT
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 11, 2000 - 0530 MDT
NATIONAL PREPAREDNESS LEVEL IV
CURRENT SITUATION:
Three new large fires were reported, one each in the Eastern Great Basin,
Southern California and Southern Areas. Crews reached containment goals
on seven fires, two in the Northern Rockies, one in Rocky Mountain, one in
Northern California, one in Southern California and two in the Southern
area. Initial attack activity was light throughout the United States.
Scattered showers and high elevation snow can be expected across eastern
Montana, parts of Wyoming and Colorado due to a trough of low pressure
that is shifting into the Northern plains. Very high to extreme fire
indices were reported in, Idaho, Utah, Arizona, Nevada, California,
Montana, Wyoming, Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Arkansas and Oklahoma.
SOUTHERN AREA LARGE FIRES:
CHICKEN, Texas State Forest Service. This fire is located 20 miles east
of Nacogdoches, TX. A Type II Incident Management Team (Sisk) is
assigned. Crews continue to improve containment lines.
MOORE BRANCH, Texas State Forest Service. This fire is burning in a pine
plantation 30 miles north of Beaumont, TX. A Type II Incident Management
Team (Koehler) is assigned. No new information was received.
SHAMROCK, Texas State Forest Service. This fire is burning in grass,
mesquite and juniper and is located 80 miles east of Amarillo, TX.
DEEP CREEK, Texas State Forest Service. This is fire burning near San
Saba, TX. No new information was reported. This will be the last report
unless new information is received.
NORTHERN ROCKIES AREA LARGE FIRES:
An Area Command Team (Edrington) is assigned to manage the large fires in
the Hamilton area. An Area Command Team (Gale) is assigned to manage the
large fires in northwest Montana.
VALLEY COMPLEX, Bitterroot National Forest. A Type I Incident Management
Team (Stutler) is assigned. The Army's 3rd Battalion 327th Infantry from
Ft. Campbell, KY, commanded by LTC Lehr, is assigned. These fires are
seven miles south of Darby, MT. The complex consists of the Bear, Taylor,
Taylor Spot, Hilltop, Razor, Fat and Mink fires. Precipitation and higher
relative humidity is keeping the fire activity at a low level.
SKALKAHO COMPLEX, Bitterroot National Forest. A Type I Incident
Management Team (Rutherford) is assigned. This group of fires is ten
miles southeast of Hamilton, MT. Included in the complex are the Bear and
Coyote fires. The fire activity remains light with cooler temperatures,
higher relative humidity and light rain.
WILDERNESS COMPLEX, Bitterroot
National Forest. A Type II Incident Management Team (Cook) is assigned.
The complex consists of 14 fires in the Selway-Bitterroot and Frank Church
River of No Return Wildernesses, 40 miles southwest of Hamilton, MT.
Large fires in the complex include the Hamilton, Lonely, Fitz, Thirty,
Echo and Throng fires. Acreage decrease is due to better mapping. Fire
activity remained light with cool, wet weather. This will be the last
report unless there is a significant increase in fire activity.
MIDDLE FORK COMPLEX, Beaverhead-Deerlodge National Forest. A Type II
Incident Management Team (Swope) is assigned. The complex consists of the
Falls Creek, Cougar Creek, Coyote Springs, Medicine Lake, Skalkaho Pass,
Lick Creek and Cooper Creek fires, 30 miles southwest of Philipsburg, MT.
Crews continue to build direct fireline, mopup and secure existing
containment lines.
MONTURE/SPREAD RIDGE, Lolo National Forest. The fires are 15 miles east
of Seeley Lake, MT. Rehabilitation efforts have been completed. The fire
received a steady drizzle of rain. This will be the last report unless
there is a significant change in fire activity.
MAUDLOW/TOSTON, Central Land Office, Montana Department of Natural
Resources and Conservation. A Type II Incident Management Team (Corbin)
is assigned. These fires are 25 miles northeast of Belgrade, MT. The
fire activity is low due to precipitation received.
MUSSIGBROD COMPLEX, Beaverhead-Deerlodge National Forest. A Type II
Incident Management Team (Specht) is assigned. These fires are 12 miles
northwest of Wisdom, MT. The complex includes the Mussigbrod and Maynard
fires. Three inches of snow fell on the higher elevations of the fires.
Crews continue to make progress on hot spotting, cold trailing and
rehabilitation efforts.
KOOTENAI COMPLEX, Kootenai National Forest. A Type II Incident Management
Team (Novotny) is assigned. The Army's 1st Battalion 321st Artillery from
Ft. Bragg, NC, commanded by LTC Mathis, is assigned. These fires are 20
miles northwest of Libby, MT. The Troy South Complex has been included
within this complex. All fires were quiet today, and some rehabilitation
is being implemented.
ALDER CREEK, Lolo National Forest. A Type II Incident Management Team
(Davidson) is assigned. This fire is 31 miles southeast of Missoula, MT.
Crews continued with direct fireline construction, with assistance from
aircraft operations.
EASTERN GREAT BASIN AREA LARGE FIRES:
CLEAR CREEK COMPLEX, Salmon-Challis National Forest. A Type I Incident
Management Team (Hefner) is assigned. This complex consists of the Clear
Creek, Marlin Springs, Full Circle and Sisters fires. The 3rd Battalion,
2nd Marines from Camp Lejeune, North Carolina, commanded by LTC Smith, is
committed. Large portions of the fire area received snow. Crews continue
mopup and rehabilitation efforts.
DRY FORK, Wasatch-Cache National Forest. A Type II Incident Management
Team (Saleen) is assigned. The fire is located 10 miles east of Oakley,
UT. Strong winds exposed many previously unidentified spots. Summer
homes and cabins are still threatened.
POISON, Lower Snake River District, BLM. This fire, is burning in grass
and sagebrush, is located 18 miles northwest of Murphy Hot Springs, ID.
BURGDORF JUNCTION, Payette National Forest. The fire is 23 miles north of
McCall, ID. Rain was received on a majority of the forest. This will be
the last report unless significant changes occur.
FONTENELLE, Bridger-Teton National Forest. This fire is 20 miles north of
Kemmerer, WY. Crews have been successful in picking up new hotspots and
preventing perimeter growth.
SCF WILDERNESS, Salmon-Challis National Forest. Eleven wildland fires are
currently burning within the Salmon Challis Wilderness Complex: Little
Pistol, Indian Creek, Filly, Butts, Papoose, Parker, Packer Meadow, Shell
Rock, Wilson Creek, Jackass and Jack Creek. Minimal fire activity was
observed.
WESTERN GREAT BASIN AREA LARGE FIRES:
MAHOGANY CREEK, Winnemucca Field Office, BLM. The fire is burning in
grass, mahogany and sage 75 miles northwest of Winnemucca, NV. Fire
behavior has been limited to interior flare ups. With effective support
from air tankers and helicopters, crews made progress in flanking the
fire. Current threats are to wildlife habitat.
OUTLOOK:
** FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE STATE OF MISSISSIPPI FOR LOW FUEL
MOISTURES**
For the Southern Area high pressure will remain over Florida and Georgia.
This will continue to allow moisture and scattered thunderstorms to move
into Texas and the coastal regions. High temperatures will be in the 80's
to 90's with 100 expected near the Rio Grande. Minimum relative humidity
will be 40 to 50 percent inland and 60 to 70 percent along the Gulf Coast.
Winds will be east to south at 5 to 15 mph.
In the West high pressure will begin to amplify across the southwest
states and into the Pacific northwest as a trough of low pressure shifts
into the Northern plains. As a result, scattered rain showers and high
elevation snows can be expected across eastern Montana, as well as
portions of Wyoming and Colorado. Otherwise, warm and dry conditions will
prevail across the remainder of the west and southwest.
High temperatures in the West will be in the mid 50's to mid 70's in the
Northern rockies and Intermountain West. In the Central and West Coast
areas temperatures will be in the 70's to near 90, and from the 90's to
near 110 in the warmest deserts of the South.
Minimum relative humidity will generally be in the mid teens to 30 percent
with some single digits in the warmest southern deserts.
Winds in the west will mostly be west to northwest 10-20 mph.
=> USA Earthquake Report
UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY
NATIONAL EARTHQUAKE INFORMATION CENTER
GOLDEN, COLORADO
LISTS OF U.S. EARTHQUAKES IN THE LAST 30 HOURS
Prepared by USGS/NEIC 2000 SEP 11 at 00:15 UTC
NO EVENTS
=> Yesterday's USA Severe Weather Reports
Note: All data is considered preliminary
Tornado Reports
No reports received
Hail Reports
Time Size Location County State Lat Lon Comments
2210 100 TUCSON PIMA AZ 3223 11093 WEST SIDE OF TUCSON (TUS)
0045 88 7 N CLEAR LAKE CERRO GORDO IA 4324 9338 4W OF FERTILE. REPORTED BY
STORM SPOTTER. (DSM)
0128 88 EAU CLAIRE EAU CLAIRE WI 4471 9126 REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER. (MSP)
0129 250 CUMMINGSVILLE OLMSTED MN 4388 9226 REPORTED BY LOCAL SPOTTER (LSE)
0149 125 2 N CHATFIELD OLMSTED MN 4403 9255 REPORTED BY LOCAL SPOTTER (LSE)
0150 100 5 NW MANLY WORTH IA 4334 9328 REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER. (DSM)
0152 100 1 S DOVER OLMSTED MN 4394 9214 REPORTED BY LOCAL SPOTTER (LSE)
0157 175 1 N ST CHARLES WINONA MN 4398 9208 REPORTED BY LOCAL SPOTTER (LSE)
0205 100 4 N MANLY WORTH IA 4334 9319 REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER. (DSM)
0217 100 5 W EAU CLAIRE EAU CLAIRE WI 4471 9126 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT
OFFICIAL. (MSP)
0227 75 ALTURA WINONA MN 4406 9193 REPORTED BY LOCAL SPOTTER (LSE)
0244 200 LEWISTON WINONA MN 4398 9188 REPORTED BY LOCAL SPOTTER (LSE)
0302 100 WINONA WINONA MN 4404 9164 REPORTED BY LOCAL SPOTTER (LSE)
0330 88 10 NW CLEGHORN EAU CLAIRE WI 4480 9158 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT
OFFICIAL. (MSP)
0347 100 ARCADIA TREMPEALEAU WI 4425 9150 REPORTED BY LOCAL SPOTTER (LSE)
0400 100 MONTANA BUFFALO WI 4434 9166 REPORTED BY LOCAL SPOTTER (LSE)
0414 100 LAC DU FLAMBEAU VILAS WI 4596 8988 (GRB)
1055 75 HILLSBORO VERNON WI 4364 9034 PUBLIC REPORTED PENNY SIZE HAIL (LSE)
1128 75 RICHLAND CENTER RICHLAND WI 4333 9038 REPORTED BY DISPATCH (LSE)
Wind Reports
Time Speed Location County State Lat Lon Comments
2210 UNK TUCSON PIMA AZ 3223 11093 POWER LINE DOWN AT LIMBERLO ORACLE ROADS
(TUS)
0450 UNK OWEN CLARK WI 4494 9056 REPORTED BY DISPATCH TREES AND POWER LINES
DOWN (LSE)
0451 UNK LUBLIN TAYLOR WI 4508 9071 REPORTED BY DISPATCH TREES DOWN (LSE)
0540 UNK 10 NNW WAUSAU MARATHON WI 4511 8972 NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES
DOWN IN BERLIN TOWNSHIP. (GRB)
0544 UNK HARRISON LINCOLN WI 4536 8969 TREES DOWN. (GRB)
0620 UNK GREENWOOD CLARK WI 4476 9059 REPORTED BY DISPATCH TREES DOWN (LSE)
Fields marked UNK are unknown
All Times UTC
Wind Gusts in MPH
Hail Sizes in 1/100 of an Inch (75 = 0.75")
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