THIS NOTICE IS FOR USE AS GUIDANCE ONLY
CESAR Group Canada ALERT 1A>>>>>Proprietary Number CAI-21-0903-00 >
DATE: 09/07/00
TIME OF NOTICE: 1730 EDT 2130Z
CG TURN TIME: 1 Hours 15 Mins.
CESAR Group CF > 75 % {at} 1254 EDT 1654 Z.
ALERT 1A
CESAR Group Canada Watch Area Proprietary Investigation: CAI-21-0903-00 > is
issuing ALERT 1A on a Severe Weather System approximately 120 -160 Nautical
Miles east of the Leeward Islands as of 1745 EDT 2145 Z. This system is now a
potential threat to the Northern Leeward Nations and is demonstrating rapid
and strong growth with a central quadrant visible at 17.8°N>58.84°W. The
oceanic and atmospheric environment continues to sustain this slow moving and
or stationary weather system and will continue to strengthen if the forward
motion does not accelerate. Conditions are favourable for enhancement with
SST's at +30°C and SSTA's in the +.5°>+1.0°C. VWS is weak at +5Kts and there
are no negative divergence packages in its present path as of 2145 Z. The
convergence cap continues to be weak at 2100 Z. Wave heights remain at 3-5ft
westerly. The system appears to be stationary but continues to be developing
more to the south west. Scanning operational and experimental wind models
agree that the surface winds range from 2-5Kts. This ALERT also includes
associated weather, NEMA Agencies should be aware of severe weather that may
initiate micro bursts or other weather anomalies including high winds, heavy
rain, flooding and collateral damage from mudslides. Tides continue to be
above normal deviation> 8>+12mm
1) Present estimated position of Weather Area (+/- 1°)= 17.8°N>--58.84°W>
1745 EDT 2145 Z
2) Special Note: Near Real Time Infrared Imagery attached
3) Next NOTICE: According to CESAR Group Canada's protocol.
4) This NOTICE: is in effect until 1800 EDT 2220 Hours Z 0907-00
5) Next estimated position on a 6 Hour basis> undetermined
6) Speed in nautical mile (Knots)= 2-5Kts Direction considered stationary
{at}1745 EDT 2145 Z
For additional information, emergency preparedness and procedures refer to
You're Caribbean National Emergency Management Agencies, the Local or Regional
Met offices. Text and Imagery of these files at: http://come.to/cesargroup\
You are subscribed to the CANADIAN Environmental Science and Research Group
Alert. To Unsubscribe email: cesragroup{at}netscape.net and in the subject line
put unsubscribe.
End of ALERT 1A
CG Team Patterson
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