CESAR Group Canada Advisory 3A>>>>>Proprietary Number CAI-21-0903-00 >
DATE: 09/07/00
TIME OF NOTICE: 1015 EDT 1215 Z
CG TURN TIME: 2 Hours 15 Mins.
CESAR Group CF > 75 % {at} 1254 EDT 1654 Z.
Advisory 3A
CESAR Group Canada Watch Area Proprietary Investigation: CAI-21-0903-00 > is
issuing Advisory 3A on a Weather System approximately 240 Nautical Miles east
of the Leeward Islands as of 1254 EDT 1654 Z. This system continues to pose a
threat to the Leeward Islands as far south as Dominica. Visible and Infrared
Imagery is indicating that Dominica may be receiving associated weather with
this system and microbursts are a possibility with thunderstorms and rain at
5mm per hour. The central quadrant maintains an elusive position. The oceanic
and atmospheric environment sustains favourable conditions for enhancement
with SST's at +30°C and SSTA's in the +.5°>+1.0°C. VWS is weak at +5Kts and
there are no negative divergence packages in its present path as of 1545 Z.
The convergence cap is also weak of +5> with convection to the north,
north-east and north-west of the system. Rain amounts are approximately 5 mm
per hour in the south-western quadrant and 10mm per hour in the north-eastern
axis of the system with wave heights 3-5ft westerly. The CG Team believes the
system is almost stationary and appears to be banding to the south-west on
recent 1545 Z IR/Vis imagery. Scanning operational and experimental wind
models agree that the surface winds range from 5-8Kts. Experimental wind
models indicate 25Kts with gusts up to 35Kts in the northern quadrant. As of
this advisory the CG Team expects some strengthening, however, there are other
collateral atmospheric anomalies that may be mitigating the strengthening of
this system. This Advisory also includes associated weather NEMA Agencies
should be aware of severe weather that may initiate micro bursts or other
weather anomalies including high winds, heavy rain, flooding and collateral
damage from mudslides. Tides continue to be above normal deviation> 8>+12mm
1. Present estimated position of Weather Area (+/- 1°)=
15.41°N>--61.3°W>19.22°N>--55.84 as of 1145 EDT 1545 Z
2. Special Note: Near Real Time Infrared Imagery attached
3. Next NOTICE: According to CESAR Group Canada's protocol.
4. This NOTICE: is in effect until 1800 EDT 2220 Hours Z 0907-00
5. Next estimated position on a 6 Hour basis> undetermined
6. Speed in nautical mile (Knots)= 5-8Kts Direction undetermined {at}1145 EDT
1545 Z
For additional information, emergency preparedness and procedures refer to
You're Caribbean National Emergency Management Agencies, the Local or Regional
Met offices. Text and Imagery of these files at: http://come.to/cesargroup\
THIS NOTICE IS FOR USE AS GUIDANCE ONLY
You are subscribed to the CANADIAN Environmental Science and Research Group
Alert. To Unsubscribe email: cesragroup{at}netscape.net and in the subject line
put unsubscribe.
End of Advisory 3A
CG Team Patterson
____________________________________________________________________
Get your own FREE, personal Netscape WebMail account today at http://home.netscape.com/webmail
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
===================================================
CASI StormReports Email List
TOO MUCH StormReport EMAIL?
Set yourself to "Digest" to receive only ONE Email per day!
http://stormreports{at}casi-internal
CASI StormReports Administration Addresses:
Post message: stormreports{at}casi-internal
UNSUBSCRIBE: stormreports-unsubscribe{at}egroups.com OR
http://stormreports{at}casi-internal
ReSubscribe: stormreports-subscribe{at}egroups.com OR
http://stormreports{at}casi-internal
List owner: stormreports-owner{at}egroups.com
TO CHANGE YOUR ADDRESS PLEASE UNSUBSCRIBE THEN RESUBSCRIBE
Posting Suggestions URL:
http://www.weatherwatchers.org/members/casisr.html
===================================================
This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Sat Sep 30 2000 - 20:08:37 EDT