The USA Disaster Situation Report
The Daily USA Disaster Situation Report
For September 7, 2000
Christopher Effgen, Editor, host{at}disastercenter.com
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IN THIS ISSUE
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=> USA Daily Temperature Extremes
=> Special Notes
=> Current Tropical Weather Outlook
=> Current Active National Weather Service Warnings:
=> Severe Weather Probability Forecast
=> Precipitation Forecast and Excessive Rainfall Forecast
=> USA Flood Report
=> USA Fire Report and Forecast
=> USA Earthquake Report
=> Yesterday's USA Severe Weather Reports
=> Guest Column
=> NCAR "Auto-nowcaster" Takes on Sydney Weather during Olympic Games
=> Records Of Lake, River, Ice Across Globe Reveal Major Warming Trend
=> Classified Ads
=> Links Area
=> How to Be Featured as our Guest Columnist
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=> Subscribe/Unsubscribe information
The Daily USA Disaster Situation Report
For September 7, 2000
Christopher Effgen, Editor, host{at}disastercenter.com
------------------------------------------------------------
IN THIS ISSUE
------------------------------------------------------------
=> USA Daily Temperature Extremes
National Temperature Extremes
High Wed...110 At Laredo And Del Rio TX
Low Thu...23 At Big Piney WY
=> Special Notes
The ECMWF shows a moderate low striking the coast of Georgia - South
Carolina: Tuesday - Wednesday of next week.
=> Current Tropical Weather Outlook For The North Atlantic Caribbean Sea And
The Gulf Of Mexico
An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft did not find a well-defined
circulation in the broad area of low pressure centered a little less than
300 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Satellite images
indicate that the system is not well organized and development does not
appear likely. Showers and locally gusty winds may spread over portions of
the Leeward Islands later today as the system continues to move
west-northwestward around 15 mph.
Disorganized cloudiness and showers persist over portions of the Gulf of
Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula. Surface pressures remain relatively low
but...tropical cyclone development is not anticipated at this time.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through Friday.
=> Current Active National Weather Service Warnings:
Active Warnings:
Updated Thu Sep 7 11:42:42 2000
Flash Flood
Florida
...A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS NORTHEAST FLORIDA THROUGH 5 PM
EDT... THE WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
CLAY...DUVAL...FLAGLER...PUTNAM AND SAINT JOHNS.
Flood
Florida
FOR THE LITTLE WITHLACOOCHEE R., INCLUDING VALDOSTA, MINOR FLOODING IS
OCCURING, WITH MODERATE FLOODING FORECASTED.
North Carolina
A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE: BLACKWATER RIVER. FOR THE CHOWAN
BASIN...INCLUDING FRANKLIN...MINOR FLOODING IS FORECASTED.
Virginia
A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE: BLACKWATER RIVER. FOR THE CHOWAN
BASIN...INCLUDING FRANKLIN...MINOR FLOODING IS FORECASTED.
Special Marine
Alabama
* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA, FL
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM UNTIL 1100 AM CDT
Florida
* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR... WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO
APALACHICOLA,FL EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA
TO DESTIN, FL OUT TO 20NM COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO
APALACHICOLA,FL OUT TO 20 NM WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN, FL
EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM * UNTIL 100 PM EDT
=> Severe Weather Probability Forecast
The forecast probability of an event is by the stated percentage or greater
for the event, within 25 miles of any point for the area described.
Tornado Risk - Slight
There is a less than 2% probability of a tornado
Hail Risk - Slight
There is a less than 5% probability of hail 3/4 inch or larger
Wind Risk - Slight
There is a less than 5% probability of winds in excess of 50 knots
Tomorrow's Risk - Slight
No severe weather is forecast
=> Precipitation Forecast and Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Precipitation Forecast
The 24 hr precipitation forecast is calling for over 3 inches of rainfall
over far southern Mississippi.
Over 2 inches of rainfall is forecast over far southeastern Louisiana, far
southern Mississippi, and far southwestern Alabama.
Over an inch of rainfall is forecast over far eastern Louisiana, southern
Mississippi, southwest Alabama, the far southwestern part of Florida's
panhandle, over far northeastern Florida, far southeastern Georgia, and far
southern South Carolina.
The 24 - 48 hr precipitation forecast is calling for over an inch of
rainfall is forecast over southeastern Texas, southern Louisiana, and over
central coastal South Carolina.
Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Flash flood values may be exceeded over eastern Louisiana, southern
Mississippi, far southern Alabama, far southern Georgia, and Florida except
the southern area.
=> USA Flood Report
=> USA Fire Report and Forecast
INCIDENT MANAGEMENT SITUATION REPORT
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 7, 2000 - 0530 MDT
NATIONAL PREPAREDNESS LEVEL IV
CURRENT SITUATION:
Eight new large fires were reported, six in the Southern area and two in
the Rocky Mountain Area. Firefighters reached containment goals on six
fires in the Southern, Southwest and Rocky Mountain Areas. Initial attack
activity was heavy in the Southern Area and light elsewhere. Warmer and
drier weather in Oregon, Idaho, Montana and Wyoming will revitalize large
fire activity in those states. Scattered thunderstorms moving into
eastern Texas and the Gulf Coast states may assist firefighters there.
Very high to extreme fire indices were reported in Oregon, California,
Idaho, Montana, Arizona, Utah, Wyoming, Nevada, Colorado, Kansas,
Arkansas, Mississippi, Oklahoma and Texas.
SOUTHERN AREA LARGE FIRES:
CHICKEN, Texas State Forest Service. This fire is located 20 miles east
of Nacogdoches, TX. A Type II Incident Management Team (Sisk) is
assigned. High temperatures, low humidity, constant wind and intense fire
behavior are resulting in the fire escaping from containment lines each
afternoon.
MOORE BRANCH, Texas State Forest Service. This fire is burning in a pine
plantation 30 miles north of Beaumont, TX. A Type II Incident Management
Team (Koehler)is assigned. Air tankers are being used extensively. The
fire is exhibiting extreme fire behavior.
SNAKE EYE COMPLEX, National Forests in Mississippi. This complex of fires
is near Potts Camp, MS. The fires are still flaring up during the day,
but staying within containment lines. Crews continue to patrol and mopup.
RANGER HILLS, Texas State Forest Service. This fire is burning in heavy
brush and cedar 50 miles east of Abilene, TX. No new information was
received.
E WHITES 2, Anahuac National Wildlife Refuge. This fire is burning in a
marsh area 40 miles from Houston, TX. Mopup operations are continuing.
Higher relative humidities have assisted firefighters in suppression
efforts.
RED TOWN, Texas State Forest Service. This fire is actively burning in a
three year old plantation 50 miles northwest of Henderson, TX.
BUSH, Texas State Forest Service. This fire is burning in a pine
plantation in Tyler County. Intense fire behavior has been exhibited.
SPURGER, Texas State Forest Service. This fire also burning in Tyler
County is very fast moving and has made evacuations necessary.
DEEP CREEK, Texas State Forest Service. This is fire burning near San
Saba, TX. Air tankers and helicopters have assisted in protecting four
homes, numerous outbuildings and a ranch.
FROST, Texas State Forest Service. This fire is burning in Kendall County
in cedar, juniper and oak fuels. The National Guard helicopters aided in
saving 13 homes.
HORIZON, Texas State Forest Service. The fire is burning 40 miles
northwest of San Antonio, TX. Residences are threatened. Power is out in
the area due to two power grids being shut down as a result of the fire.
DICKEY LOOP, Texas State Forest Service. The fire was caused by lightning
60 miles northwest of Houston, TX. No new information was reported. This
will be the last report unless new information is received.
STANLEY MAINLINE COMPLEX, Texas State Forest Service. This complex of
fires is burning actively in a pine plantation 40 miles northeast of
Houston, TX. No new information was reported. This will be the last
report unless new information is received.
OAK CREEK, Texas State Forest Service. No new information was reported.
This will be the last report unless new information is received.
CYPRESS CREEK, Texas State Forest Service. The fire is located 30 miles
north of Houston, TX. Extreme fire behavior has been noted and several
structures are threatened. This will be the last report unless new
information is received.
EL CAMINO, Texas State Forest Service. The fire is located ten miles east
of Palestine, TX, and is burning in a pine plantation. No new information
was reported. This will be the last report unless new information is
received.
SKELLYTOWN, Texas State Forest Service. This grass and brush fire is 40
miles northwest of Amarillo, TX. No new information was reported. This
will be the last report unless new information is received.
WILLIAMS BRANCH, Texas State Forest Service. The fire is 50 miles north
of Austin, TX. Thirty homes are threatened by this fire that is burning
in cedar, oak and juniper. This will be the last report unless new
information is received.
ENCHANTED ROCK, Texas State Forest Service. Burning in rough terrain,
this fire is 80 miles west of Austin, TX. No new information was
reported. This will be the last report unless new information is
received.
TEXLA, Texas State Forest Service. The fire is in Orange County,
northeast of Houston, TX. Gusty winds and high temperatures are hampering
containment efforts on this plantation fire. This will be the last report
unless new information is received.
201, Texas State Forest Service. Burning in heavy brush, cedar and pinyon
pine, this fire is 50 miles north of Austin, TX. No new information was
reported. This will be the last report unless new information is
received.
SWEETHOME, Texas State Forest Service. The fire is 100 miles east of San
Antonio, TX. It is burning in heavy brush, pinyon pine, juniper and
cedar. No new information was reported. This will be the last report
unless new information is received.
LOWE, National Forests in Texas. This fire is threatening two residences
and one outbuilding. No new information was reported. This will be the
last report unless new information is received.
CR 205, Texas State Forest Service. The fire is burning in heavy cedar 20
miles south of Austin, TX. High temperatures and no humidity recovery at
night are hindering containment efforts. No new information was reported.
This will be the last report unless new information is received.
WILLOW CREEK, Texas State Forest Service. This fire is 20 miles southwest
of Austin, TX. Fuels involved are juniper and oak. No new information
was reported. This will be the last report unless new information is
received.
1131, Texas State Forest Service. Extreme fire behavior has been observed
on this fire that is 75 miles northeast of Houston, TX. No new
information was reported. This will be the last report unless new
information is received.
TUCKER, Texas State Forest Service. This pine plantation fire is 50 miles
northwest of Nacogdoches, TX in Tyler County. No new information was
reported. This will be the last report unless new information is
received.
LOTTA, Texas State Forest Service. The fire is burning in a pine
plantation in Harrison County, TX. No new information was reported. This
will be the last report unless new information is received.
NORTHERN ROCKIES AREA LARGE FIRES:
An Area Command Team (Edrington) is assigned to manage the large fires in
the Hamilton area. An Area Command Team (Mann) is assigned to manage the
large fires in southwest Montana. An Area Command Team (Meuchel) is
assigned to manage the large fires in central Montana. An Area Command
Team (Gale) is assigned to manage the large fires in northwest Montana.
Priorities are being established by the Northern Rockies Multi-Agency
Coordinating Group based on information submitted via Wildfire Situation
Analysis reports and Incident Status Summary (ICS-209) forms.
VALLEY COMPLEX, Bitterroot National Forest. A Type I Incident Management
Team (Stutler) is assigned. The Army's 3rd Battalion 327th Infantry from
Ft. Campbell, KY, commanded by LTC Lehr, is assigned. These fires are
seven miles south of Darby, MT. The complex consists of the Bear, Taylor,
Taylor Spot, Hilltop, Razor, Fat and Mink fires. Minimal spread has been
observed on all fires. U.S. Forest Service Chief Mike Dombeck visited the
fire yesterday. The increase in acreage is due to portions of the Middle
Fork and Mussigbrod Complexes that are on the Bitterroot National Forest
and have become part of this complex.
SKALKAHO COMPLEX, Bitterroot National Forest. A Type I Incident
Management Team (Rutherford) is assigned. This group of fires is ten
miles southeast of Hamilton, MT. Included in the complex are the Bear and
Coyote fire. Higher humidities and cooler temperatures continue to help
reduce fire activity.
BLODGETT TRAILHEAD, Bitterroot National Forest. A Type I Incident
Management Team (Rutherford) is assigned. This fire is three miles
northwest of Hamilton, MT. Fire activity continues to be minimal.
WILDERNESS COMPLEX, Bitterroot National Forest. A Type II Incident
Management Team (Cook) is assigned. The complex consists of 14 fires in
the Selway-Bitterroot and Frank Church River of No Return Wildernesses, 40
miles southwest of Hamilton, MT. Large fires in the complex include the
Hamilton, Lonely, Fitz, Thirty, Echo and Throng fires. Fire activity has
been greatest at the 4000 to 5000 foot elevations, with less activity at
higher elevations. The area closure for the Wilderness has been lifted.
ALDER CREEK, Lolo National Forest. A Type II Incident Management Team
(Hoff) is assigned. This fire is 31 miles southeast of Missoula, MT.
Crews are building direct fireline on the northeast edge of the fire.
Helicopter bucket drops are assisting in cooling hot areas on the
northwest flank. Structure protection actions have been carried out at
Millers Flat and Trout Haven.
THOMPSON FLAT COMPLEX, Lolo National Forest. A Type I Incident Management
Team (Studebaker) is assigned. This is a complex of six fires in the
vicinity of Superior, MT. Crews are continuing fireline construction and
mopup on the Landowner fire. Poor weather is slowing progress.
UPPER NINEMILE COMPLEX, Lolo National Forest. A Type I Incident
Management Team (Bateman) is assigned. The Army's 20th Engineers
Battalion from Ft. Hood, Texas, commanded by LTC Shumway, is assigned.
These fires are burning 25 miles northwest of Missoula, MT. Activity has
been focused on rehabilitation, with mopup operations continuing as
needed. The complex has received an additional 0.1 inch of precipitation.
CLEAR CREEK DIVIDE COMPLEX, Flathead Agency, BIA. A Type I Incident
Management Team (Orich) is assigned. This complex, 60 miles northwest of
Missoula, consists of the Clear Creek, Vanderburg, Siegel, Seepay and
Magpie Creek fires. The fires have received between 0.1 and 0.4 inches of
precipitation. Crews are constructing and maintaining firelines and
extinguishing hot spots within the unburned areas of the fire. All
fireline built by dozers is holding.
MONTURE/SPREAD RIDGE, Lolo National Forest. A Type II Incident Management
Team (Hollenshead) is assigned. The fires are 15 miles east of Seeley
Lake, MT. Fire suppression and rehabilitation is progressing faster than
expected. Demobilization of some resources is underway.
MIDDLE FORK COMPLEX, Beaverhead-Deerlodge National Forest. A Type I
Incident Management Team (Hart) is assigned. The complex consists of the
Falls Creek, Cougar Creek, Coyote Springs, Medicine Lake, Skalkaho Pass,
Lick Creek and Cooper Creek fires, 30 miles southwest of Philipsburg, MT.
The fires continue to smolder and creep in heavy fuels. Fireline
construction, mopup and cold trailing operations are ongoing, with support
from helicopters with buckets and hose lays.
MAUDLOW/TOSTON, Central Land Office, Montana Department of Natural
Resources and Conservation. A Type II Incident Management Team (Corbin)
is assigned. These fires are 25 miles northeast of Belgrade, MT. The
fires are low intensity with smoldering and creeping behavior observed.
Strong winds have not caused the fire perimeter to grow. Mopup of
interior hot spots is continuing.
MUSSIGBROD COMPLEX, Beaverhead-Deerlodge National Forest. A Type I
Incident Management Team (Bennett) is assigned. These fires are 12 miles
northwest of Wisdom, MT. The complex includes the Mussigbrod and Maynard
fires. High relative humidity and cool temperatures have kept fire
behavior at a low level. A crew has been flown into the Pintler
Wilderness to construct fireline up to the Continental Divide. Other
crews are patrolling and mopping up.
KOOTENAI COMPLEX, Kootenai National Forest. A Type II Incident Management
Team (Novotny) is assigned. These fires are 20 miles northwest of Libby,
MT. All the fires in the complex have remained quiet. Mopup and patrol
continues along established firelines. Rehabilitation plans have been
developed and are being implemented.
TROY SOUTH, Kootenai National Forest. A Type II Incident Management Team
(Gauger) is assigned. The Army's 1st Battalion 321st Artillery from Ft.
Bragg, NC, commanded by LTC Mathis, is assigned. This complex of fires is
near Troy, MT. Crews continue to patrol, hold, mopup and build water bars
on firelines on the Prospect fire and working with military crews on the
O'Brien fire. Patrol of the unstaffed fires continues. Eight of the ten
large fires in this complex are contained.
CHIPMUNK, Flathead National Forest. The fire is burning in spruce,
subalpine fir and brush 45 miles southeast of Kalispell, MT. The fire
area has received showers. Fire behavior has been minimal and no fire
growth has occurred. Crews are working hot spots along constructed
fireline. Snag removal on all divisions is progressing well.
SUGARLOAF, Gallatin National Forest. The fire is 13 miles northeast of
Wilsall, MT. Low fire activity has been observed. The fire is being
monitored by aerial reconnaissance.
GREEN MOUNTAIN, Kootenai National Forest. These fires are seven miles
northwest of Trout Creek, MT. The complex includes the Green Mountain,
McNeeley, Basin Creek and Engle fires. The fire has received 0.3 inches
of precipitation. The anticipated containment date has been moved back
because this fire will continue to have potential to grow until cool, wet
autumn weather arrives.
SPRUCE COMPLEX, Yellowstone National Park. This is a complex of 11 fires
in Yellowstone National Park. The complex consists of the Plateau, Moose,
Unlucky, Boundary and several smaller fires. Minimal fire behavior has
been noted due to precipitation, high humidities and cool temperatures.
Structure protection measures are in place at backcountry cabins and at
the east and south entrances to the park.
JUDITH COMPLEX, Lewis and Clark National Forest. This complex consists of
the Studhorse, Lost Fork and High Springs fires, which are 25 miles
southwest of Stanford, MT. The fire is smoldering, with no significant
activity observed.
MCDONALD II, Lewis and Clark National Forest. This fire is 36 miles
northwest of Choteau, MT. The fire has received a trace of precipitation,
and very little fire activity has been noted. This will be the last
report until significant activity occurs.
SHARON, Glacier National Park. This fire is near North Fork in Glacier
National Park, MT. Continued cool, wet weather is keeping fire activity
low. The National Park Service is monitoring the fire with daily aerial
observation flights.
HELEN CREEK, Flathead National Forest. This fire is 22 miles south of
Spotted Bear, MT. The fire is being monitored by U.S. Forest Service
personnel. The fire is backing to the west and south with minimal
movement toward the north. The threat to the Mud Lake Lookout has been
reduced.
MINARET PEAK, Flathead National Forest. The fire is near the Spotted Bear
Ranger Station in the Bob Marshall Wilderness. U.S. Forest Service
personnel are monitoring the fire's activity. Fire activity is low due to
the weather.
PARKE PEAK, Glacier National Park. The fire has been burning since 7/23
in the northwest corner of the park. Fire activity continues to be
minimal. The National Park Service is monitoring the fire.
CRIMSON PEAK, Flathead National Forest. This fire is located in the Bob
Marshall Wilderness. The fire is being monitored by U.S. Forest Service
personnel. Fire activity continues to be low due to the weather.
EASTERN GREAT BASIN AREA LARGE FIRES:
CLEAR CREEK COMPLEX, Salmon-Challis National Forest. A Type I Incident
Management Team (Hefner) is assigned. This complex consists of the Clear
Creek, Marlin Springs, Full Circle and Sisters fires. The 3rd Battalion,
2nd Marines from Camp Lejeune, North Carolina, commanded by LTC Smith, are
committed. An increase in fire activity is expected as warmer and drier
weather is moving into the fire area. Mopup and rehabilitation efforts
are being accomplished.
YELLOWPINE COMPLEX, Payette National Forest. A Type I Incident Management
Team (Melton) is assigned. This complex consists of the Nick Peak and
Indian/Prospect fires and is located 20 miles east of McCall, ID.
Fireline construction on some divisions has been completed on the Nick
Fire. On the Indian fire, mopup and rehabilitation continue.
BURGDORF JUNCTION, Payette National Forest. A Type II Incident Management
Team (Suwyn) is assigned. The fire is 23 miles north of McCall, ID.
Drier and warmer weather has allowed crews and equipment to access most
areas of the fire. The number of hot spots has diminished due to wet
weather from a few days ago.
MORSE, Salmon-Challis National Forest. The fire is burning in grass,
sagebrush and douglas fir five miles east of May, ID. Most resources have
been demobilized and the fire will be patrolled by the U.S. Forest
Service.
SCF WILDERNESS, Salmon-Challis National Forest. A Type II Incident
Management Team (Adams) has been assigned. Eleven wildland fires are
currently burning within the Salmon Challis Wilderness Complex: Little
Pistol, Indian Creek, Filly, Butts, Papoose, Parker, Packer Meadow, Shell
Rock, Wilson Creek, Jackass and Jack Creek. The report of additional
structures lost is due to review of documentation in the damage
assessment. Observed fire behavior has been low. Trail assessments
continue.
TETON COMPLEX, Grand Teton National Park, NPS. This complex is north of
Jackson, WY. The complex consists of the Wilcox, Moran, Hechtman, Glade
and Enos fires. Crews are patrolling and mopping up on the Moran, Wilcox
and Enos fires.
FONTENELLE, Bridger-Teton National Forest. This fire is 20 miles north of
Kemmerer, WY. Crews are holding the fire within the established
perimeter.
FLOSSIE COMPLEX, Payette National Forest. These fires are 50 miles
northeast of McCall, ID. There is no longer any threat to structures at
Root Ranch, due to the change in the weather.
DIAMOND COMPLEX, Payette National Forest. This complex of fires, 42 miles
northeast of McCall, ID, consists of the Lookout, Point, North Shellrock
and South Shellrock fires.
ROCKY MOUNTAIN AREA LARGE FIRES:
JASPER, Black Hills National Forest. This fire is 15 miles east of
Newcastle, WY. Winds have increased and relative humidities are lower.
Crews continue mopup activities and rehabilitation operations.
Demobilization of resources is underway.
WARBONNET, Nebraska National Forest. This fire is located north of
Crawford, NB on the Oglala National Grassland.
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AREA LARGE FIRES:
STORRIE, Plumas National Forest. A Type II Incident Management Team
(Carlson) is assigned. The fire is 20 miles west of Quincy, CA, in the
Feather River Canyon. Fire activity has been low for another day. Fire
area rehabilitation is being coordinated with local resource advisors and
implementation continues.
WESTERN GREAT BASIN AREA LARGE FIRES:
PHILLIPS RANCH, Humboldt-Toiyabe National Forest and Great Basin National
Park. The fire is 50 miles southeast of Ely, NV. National Park Service
personnel are monitoring the fire.
OUTLOOK:
*** A RED FLAG WARNING IS POSTED IN EASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ***
South Texas and the Gulf Coast states will be warm, with an increasingly
moist southerly flow bringing scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon
and evening. High temperatures will be from the mid 80's to the mid 90's.
Minimum relative humidities will be 40 to 50 percent inland and 50 to 60
percent along the coast. Winds will be east at 5 to 15 mph.
In the west, another series of troughs will move into the extreme
northwest, while a ridge builds into the northern Rocky Mountains. As a
result, it will be warmer and drier across much of Oregon, Idaho, Montana
and Wyoming. Showers will move into northwest Washington late in the day.
Further south, monsoon moisture will bring thunderstorms to parts of the
southwest.
High temperatures in the west will be in the 60's and 70's in the northern
Rockies, in the 70's and 80's at lower elevations and in the 90's to 100
in desert areas. Minimum humidities will range from the mid teens to the
mid 30's, with some single digit readings in the warmest southern deserts.
Winds will be west to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.
=> USA Earthquake Report
UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY
NATIONAL EARTHQUAKE INFORMATION CENTER
GOLDEN, COLORADO
LISTS OF U.S. EARTHQUAKES IN THE LAST 30 HOURS
Prepared by USGS/NEIC 2000 SEP 07 at 00:15 UTC
EARTHQUAKES IN WEST CENTRAL UNITED STATES
(35.8 TO 40.3 N, 102.0 TO 125.0 W)
Date Time (UTC) Lat Long Depth Magnitude
2000 SEP 5 18:06:52.00 37.5 N 118.8 W 3 km 2.9
25 miles WNW of Bishop, California
=> Yesterday's USA Severe Weather Reports
Note: All data is considered preliminary
Tornado Reports
No reports received
Hail Reports
Time Size Location County State Lat Lon Comments
0035 75 13 W WESSINGTON SPGS JERAULD SD 4408 9886 REPORTED BY PUBLIC. (FSD)
Wind Reports
Time Speed Location County State Lat Lon Comments
2355 UNK 4 SW MILLER HAND SD 4446 9904 SHERIFF DEPT REPORTED BARN AND TREES
BLOWN DOWN. (ABR)
2013 60 LAKE PANASOFFKEE SUMTER FL 2883 8214 50 TO 60 MPH GUST...AND PEA
SIZE HAIL. REPORTED BY FIRE AND RESCUE. (TBW)
0035 70 12 W WESSINGTON SPGS JERAULD SD 4408 9884 ESTIMATED WIND SPEED 60-70
MPH. REPORTED BY PUBLIC. (FSD)
Fields marked UNK are unknown
All Times UTC
Wind Gusts in MPH
Hail Sizes in 1/100 of an Inch (75 = 0.75")
=> Guest Column
No Column Today
=> NCAR "Auto-nowcaster" Takes on Sydney Weather during Olympic Games
BOULDER-- While athletes from around the world compete for the gold
in this month's Olympic Games in Sydney, an elite team of automated
forecast tools is going head to head with Australia's weather. Human
forecasters will use advanced software furnished by Australia,
Canada, Great Britain, and the United States to help provide
automated short-term forecasts for the Olympics.
One of the five team members is an "Auto-nowcaster" developed at the
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and installed in
Sydney last year with funding from the U.S. Weather Research Program.
The system uses 30 different computational procedures to predict the
birth, growth, and decay of thunderstorms. Outlooks are issued every
five minutes for periods of up to an hour. NCAR's primary sponsor is
the National Science Foundation.
The Olympics forecasts are part of a broader exercise running from
September 2 to November 21 to see how much of a boost the automated
tools can provide to flesh-and-blood forecasters. After November an
international verification team will assess whether the automated
systems actually improved the Sydney forecasts.
Australia's Bureau of Meteorology will issue official Olympic
forecasts by mixing and matching output from NCAR's Auto-nowcaster
and the four other automated systems and then applying their own
insight. Their outlooks will go to emergency managers, flight
controllers at Sydney Airport, venue managers at the Olympics, and
personnel in charge of the Sydney Harbor Bridge Climb, a tourist
attraction.
By tracking convergence lines (gust fronts, sea breezes, and other
zones where air masses collide), the Auto-nowcaster anticipates where
the next storm might form. "The idea is to do better than if you just
extrapolate from the existing storms," explains Wilson, who has
worked on short-term forecasts since the mid-1980s.
The nowcaster is automated because often there's too much going on at
once for a person to monitor every possible interaction in short-term
forecasts. "It doesn't take long for the human to wear out and make
mistakes," says Wilson.
But automation is no piece of cake. "To get a machine to see what
your eye can see is extremely difficult," he explains. NCAR and the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Lincoln Laboratories have
been working for the past ten years to develop step-by-step
computational procedures to automatically detect convergence lines
observed on radar. They've settled on a technique to be tested in
Sydney in which a person will input the convergence line's location
and the Auto-nowcaster will do the rest.
The U.S. National Weather Service plans to bring Auto-nowcaster
concepts into severe-storm and flash-flood warnings once the agency
has sufficient computing power to accommodate the package. In
November a workshop in Sydney sponsored by the World Meteorological
Organization's World Weather Research Program will provide developing
countries a chance to obtain first-hand experience with the advanced
systems.
The other automated forecast tools operating in Sydney this fall were
developed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's
National Severe Storms Laboratory, Environment Canada, the U.K.
Meteorology Office, and the University of Salford, England.
The experiment will draw on data from two Doppler radars, three wind
profilers, about 20 weather stations, and four daily radiosonde
launches from Sydney Airport. Satellite data, which are important for
seeing the first cumulus clouds as a new storm develops, are
available only once an hour because of the recent loss of a weather
satellite.
The Auto-nowcaster was funded by the Federal Aviation Administration,
the National Weather Service, the National Science Foundation, the
U.S. Army, and the U.S. Weather Research Program.
=> Records Of Lake, River, Ice Across Globe Reveal Major Warming Trend
Tale Of The Ice, Revealed
Scientists funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF) have
amassed lake and river ice records spanning the Northern
Hemisphere that show a steady 150-year warming trend. The records
come from sources as diverse as newspaper archives,
transportation ledgers and religious observances.
The study, which includes 39 records of either freeze dates or
breakup dates from 1846 to 1995, represents one of the largest
and longest records of observable climate data ever assembled.
University of Wisconsin-Madison limnologist John Magnuson led a
team of 13 co-authors who contributed to the report, published in
the September 8 issue of the journal Science.
"This research is important because it humanizes the impacts of
global environmental change by using a simple measurement that is
relevant and meaningful to the public," says Scott Collins,
director of NSF's long-term ecological research program, which
funded the work.
All but one of the 39 ice records, which come from sites
ranging from Canada, Europe, Russia and Japan, indicate a
consistent warming pattern. The average rate of change over the
150-year period was 8.7 days later for freeze dates, and 9.8 days
earlier for breakup dates. A smaller collection of records going
well past 150 years also shows a warming trend, but at a slower
rate.
The findings also correspond to an increase in air
temperature over the past 150 years of plus-1.8 degrees Celsius.
A temperature change of 0.2C typically translates to a one-day
change in ice-on and ice-off dates. Freeze dates were defined in
the study as the observed period the lake or river was completely
ice covered; the breakup date was defined as the last ice breakup
observed before the summer open-water phase.
The records in this study are the longest and most intact of
746 overall records collected through the project. Some
individual records are of astonishing lengths, with one dating
back to the 9th century. Another is from the 15th century, and
two more date to the early 1700s. For example, Lake Suwa in Japan
has a record dating back to 1443 that was kept by holy people of
the Shinto religion. The religion had shrines on either side of
the lake. Ice cover was recorded because of the belief that ice
allowed deities on either side of the lake -- one male, one
female -- to get together.
Lake Constance, a large lake on the border of Germany and
Switzerland, has a peculiar record dating back to the 9th
century, also for religious regions. Two churches, one in either
country, had a tradition of carrying a Madonna figure across the
lake to the alternate church, each year the lake froze. Two other
long-running records come from Canada's Red and McKenzie Rivers,
which date back to the early 1700s and were kept because ice
cover and open water were critical to the fur trade. Records from
Grand Traverse Bay and Toronto Harbor, both on the shores of the
Great Lakes, reflect their prominence as shipping ports.
Another finding in the study, based on 184 ice records from
1950 to 1995, showed that variability in freeze and breakup dates
increased in the last three decades. Magnuson says that may be
related to intensification of global climate drivers such as the
El Nino/La Nina effects in the Pacific Ocean. The ecological
effects of global warming are only beginning to be studied.But
research has already been done that shows ranges of some
butterflies and birds extending northward.
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=> Links Area
Texas, Louisiana
Heat signatures (red) and smoke (light blue) are visible from a number of
fires burning in southeastern Texas and Louisiana.
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Fires/US_Plains/FSMHSusPLN249_N2.jpg
Bolivia, Brazil
Heat signatures (red) and smoke (light blue) are visible from numerous fires
burning in northern Bolivia and western Brazil.
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Fires/Bolivia/FSMHSbol249_N4.jpg
E. Pacific
Tropical depression 14E has intensified and become TS Lane. It was located
south of Cabo San Lucas near 15.1N 108.7W at 15:00 UTC.
Lane has been moving in a westerly direction at 06 knots with maximum
sustained winds estimated at 50 knots, gusts to 60 knots.
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Tropical/E_Pacific/TRClane250_G10.jpg
W. Pacific
Tropical depression 23W has become TS Wukong and was located in the South
China Sea near 18.6N 117.3E at 12:00 UTC.
Wukong has been moving in a northwesterly direction at 03 knots with maximum
sustained winds estimated at 35 knots, gusts to 45 knots.
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Tropical/W_Pacific/TRCwukong250_GM.jpg
W. Pacific
Tropical storm Saomai was located northeast of Guam near 14.5N 147.4E at
12:00 UTC. Saomai has been moving in a north-northwesterly direction at 06
knots
with maximum sustained winds estimated at 55 knots, gusts to 70 knots. TD
Bopha was located southeast of Okinawa near 22.4N 136.5W at 12:00 UTC.
Bopha has been moving in a northerly direction at 05 knots with maximum
sustained winds estimated at 30 knots, gusts to 40 knots.
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Tropical/W_Pacific/TRCsaomai250_GM.jpg
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