CESAR Group Canada Advisory 1A>>>>>Proprietary Number CAI-21-0903-00 >
DATE: 09/06/00
TIME OF NOTICE: 1400 EDT 1700 Z
CG TURN TIME: 1 Hours 20 Mins.
CESAR Group CF > 65 % {at} 1536 EDT 1936 Z.
Immediate Advisory 1A
CESAR Group Canada Watch Area Proprietary Investigation: CAI-21-0903-00 > is
issuing Advisory 1A on a Weather System to the Leeward Islands as of 1536 EDT
1936 Z. This system is beginning to develop since our last visual scan of
vis/ir imagery of the system at 1130 hrs Z. The central quadrant is not
definable on IR imagery but there is some definition on visible imagery and
circulation is also becoming somewhat developed. The oceanic and atmospheric
environment persists to be favourable for enhancement with SST's at +30°C and
SSTA's in the +.5°>+1.0°C. The latest AVN SLP model run 090600Z no longer
demonstrates an area of development where the system is located through its
T=72 Hour run. The GFDL model is not focused on this system so no data is
available from its present run. VWS is becoming weak at +5Kts and there are no
divergence packages in its present path as of 1500 Z. The convergence cap is
becoming stronger with a range of +5>10 with convection to the north east of
the system which appears to be the catalyst for the strengthening. Rain
amounts vary but it is approximately 10 mm per hour in the south-western
quadrant and 25mm per hour in a central area to the north-eastern axis of the
system with wave heights 4-6ft westerly. The system is on a present westerly
course of 274° with winds of 20-25 Knots at the 950Mb level. Also, there is a
moderate probability that the system could strengthen in the next 6-18 hours.
This ALERT also includes associated weather NEMA Agencies should be aware of
severe weather that may initiate micro bursts or other weather anomalies
including high winds, heavy rain, flooding and collateral damage from mud
slides. Tides continue to be above normal deviation> 8>+12mm
1. Present estimated position of Weather Area (+/- 1°)= 16.31°N>--55.5°W as
of 1345 EDT 1745 Z
2. Special Note: Near Real Time Visible Imagery attached
3. Next NOTICE: 1930 EDT 2330 Hours Z 0906-00 if required and according to
CESAR Group Canada's protocol.
4. This NOTICE: is in effect until 1930 EDT 2330 Hours Z 0906-00
5. Next estimated position on a 4 Hour basis> 16.4°N>-55.8°W
6. Speed in nautical mile (Knots)= 10Kts Direction westerly 274° {at}1345 EDT
1745 Z
For additional information, emergency preparedness and procedures refer to
You're Caribbean National Emergency Management Agencies, the Local or Regional
Met offices. Text and Imagery of these files at: http://come.to/cesargroup\
THIS NOTICE IS FOR USE AS GUIDANCE ONLY
You are subscribed to the CANADIAN Environmental Science and Research Group
Alert. To unsubscribe email: cesragroup{at}netscape.net and in the subject line
put unsubscribe.
End of Immediate Advisory 1A
CG Team Patterson
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