CESAR Group NOTICE 3>>>>>Proprietary Number CAI-20-0830-00 >
DATE: 09/02/00
TIME OF NOTICE: 0930 EDT 1330Z
CG TURN TIME: 3 Hours 15 Min.
CESAR Group CF > 75 % {at} 1344 EDT 1744 Z
UPDATE NOTICE 3 TO LEEWARD ISLANDS
CESAR Group Canada Watch Area Proprietary Investigation: CAI-20-0830-00 > is
issuing UPDATE NOTICE 3 on a Tropical Storm Ernesto TO LEEWARD ISLANDS as of
1344 EDT 1744 Z. This system has strengthen and now is a Tropical Storm with a
central quadrant at 18°N>51.0°W within 1° (+-). Inflow is moderate and oceanic
conditions are conducive for enhancement. Model runs 090200Z of AVN and UK Met
are indicating that this storm will be merged into a broader Low Pressure area
just north of 20°N.Ernesto has a tight circulation and high convective clouds
are visible in the central quadrant by visible imagery and confirmed by IR.
But the storm on its present track will confront vertical wind shear of
approximately 20-30 Kts. The storm maintains a moderate to strong convergence
envelope but as it moves further north it will begin to weaken and the CG Team
is now observing a more north>lay>north westerly path of 340°. There are no
negative divergence packages in CAI20 present pathing. The CG Team forecasts
it will change its present track and possibly turn more northerly within the
next 24 hours. The wind vectors centrally are 35Kts with gusts of 54 Kts to
the north and north west of Ernesto central area. There is a weak probability
that this system will strengthen with in the next 24 Hours and it could
possibly dissipate.
1. Present estimated position of Weather Area (+/- 1°)= 18.0°N>-51.0°W as
of 0945 EDT 1345 Z
2. Special Note: Real Time Visible Imagery attached
3. Next NOTICE: Final Notice unless Tracking changes and or Strength
4. This NOTICE: is in effect until 1300 EDT 1700 Z 0903-00
5. Next estimated position on a 12 Hour basis> Beyond our watch area
Speed in nautical mile (Knots)= 15Kts Direction north>lay>northwesterly
approximately 340° {at}0945 EDT 1345 Z
For additional information, emergency preparedness and procedures refer to
You're Caribbean National Emergency Management Agencies, the Local or Regional
Met offices and for tracks and probable landfall refer to NRL Monterey or NAV
Ops Atlantic. Text and Imagery of these files at: http://come.to/cesargroup\
THIS NOTICE IS FOR USE AS GUIDANCE ONLY
You are subscribed to the CANADIAN Environmental Science and Research Group
Alert. To unsubscribe email: cesragroup{at}netscape.net and in the subject line
put unsubscribe.
UPDATE NOTICE 3 TO LEEWARD ISLANDS
<COFOR>
____________________________________________________________________
Get your own FREE, personal Netscape WebMail account today at http://home.netscape.com/webmail
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
===================================================
CASI StormReports Email List
TOO MUCH StormReport EMAIL?
Set yourself to "Digest" to receive only ONE Email per day!
http://stormreports{at}casi-internal
CASI StormReports Administration Addresses:
Post message: stormreports{at}casi-internal
UNSUBSCRIBE: stormreports-unsubscribe{at}egroups.com OR
http://stormreports{at}casi-internal
ReSubscribe: stormreports-subscribe{at}egroups.com OR
http://stormreports{at}casi-internal
List owner: stormreports-owner{at}egroups.com
TO CHANGE YOUR ADDRESS PLEASE UNSUBSCRIBE THEN RESUBSCRIBE
Posting Suggestions URL:
http://www.weatherwatchers.org/members/casisr.html
===================================================
This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Sat Sep 30 2000 - 20:08:36 EDT