NAV OPS/ NRL 91L
____________________________________________________________________
CESAR Group NOTICE 2>>>>>Proprietary Number CAI-20-0830-00 >
DATE: 09/01/00
TIME OF NOTICE: 0845 EDT 1245Z
CG TURN TIME: 3 Hours 15 Mins.
CESAR Group CF > 60 % {at}1202 EDT 1602 Z.
NOTICE 2
CESAR Group Canada Watch Area Proprietary Investigation: CAI-20-0830-00 > is
issuing NOTICE 2 on a Weather area to the Leeward Islands as of 1202 EDT 1602
Z. This system had weakened but now has become a little more organized with a
central quadrant identified within 1° (+-). Inflow is still weak but it is has
high intense clouds within the central quad. Model runs 090100Z of AVN and UK
Met are in agreement that further development is possible. This weather area
has regained strength by the oceanic and atmospheric conditions that are
conducive for enhancement. There are no negative divergence packages in CAI20
track and wind shear is weak +5Kts. CAI 20 has an impressive positive
convergence envelope 5,10,20 in all quadrants of the system. The present
pathing of CAI 20 is west>lay>northwesterly at 290° but, vertical wind shear
to the north of the system will influence its track more westerly. The CG Team
forecasts it will maintain it's present track for the next 12-18 Hours. The
wind vectors centrally are 25-27Kts and extend north easterly to approximately
50 nautical miles and winds of 20Kts north-east to north-west to approximately
120 nautical miles. There is a moderate probability that the system could
strengthen with in the next 24 Hours.
1. Present estimated position of Weather Area (+/- 1°)= 15.4°N>-44.8°W as
of 0845 EDT 1245 Z
2. Special Note: Real Time Visible Imagery attached
3. Next NOTICE: 1230 EDT 1630 Z 0903-00 unless strengthening occurs
4. This NOTICE: is in effect until 0002 EDT 0402 Z 0903-00
5. Next estimated position on a 12 Hour basis> 17.0°N>-48.2°W
6. Speed in nautical mile (Knots)= 20Kts Direction west>lay>westerly
approximately 290° {at}0845 EDT 1245 Z
For additional information, emergency preparedness and procedures refer to
You're Caribbean National Emergency Management Agencies, the Local or Regional
Met offices and for tracks and probable land fall refer to NRL Monterey or NAV
Ops Atlantic. Text and Imagery of these files at: http://come.to/cesargroup\
THIS NOTICE IS FOR USE AS GUIDANCE ONLY
You are subscribed to the CANADIAN Environmental Science and Research Group
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END OF NOTICE 2
CG Team..COFOR
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