THIS NOTICE IS FOR USE AS GUIDANCE ONLY
CESAR Group Alert 2A >>>>>>>>>>> Proprietary Number CAP-16-0813-00
DATE: 08/18-00
TIME OF ALERT: 0930 EDT 1330Z
CG TURN TIME: 1 Hour 54 Mins.
CESAR Group CF > 75% 0930 EDT 1330 Z
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
CESAR Group Canada Watch Area Proprietary Investigation: CAP-16-0813-00
is issuing Alert 2A on a Tropical System to the Lesser Antilles above +15°N as
of 0930 EDT 1330 Z. There is high intense cell activity in the northern quad
of this system and presently our tracking of this weather area has been in a
more northerly direction as our team observed 2100 EDT 0817-00. There is weak
to moderate low level circulation and this may or may not be confirmed by an
USAF Air Recon plane being dispatched this morning. The imagery is not able to
identify a central quad and until an eye or an identifiable central area is
confirmed the CG Team will continue to give 2 sets of location parameters.
Albeit that surface conditions are conducive to development CAP 16 remains
governed by less than desirable atmospheric conditions. Vertical Shearing is
taking place in and outside the radius of the weather area. All interested
parties should monitor this system carefully and should be aware of associated
severe weather that may initiate micro-bursts or other weather anomalies
including high winds, heavy rain, flooding and collateral damage from mud
slides. Also, be advised that sea levels are anomaly high> deviation on model
run 0815-00 indicates +4>8mm. The wave models presently exhibit a 4 to 6 ft
height westerly.
.
1. Present estimated position of Central Area (+/- 1.2°)= 15.6°N> -55.2°W
(1012mb) and north to 18.9°N> -54.8°W where moderate convection is located.
2. Special Note: Visible Imagery attached
3. Next ADVISORY: 1500 EDT 1900 Z
4. This ADVISORY is in effect until 1500 EDT 1900 Z 0818-00
5. Next estimated position on a 6 Hour basis> 0732 EDT 1132 Z: 16.3°N>
-55.7°W>19.6°N> -55.1°W
6. Speed in nautical mile (Knots)= 10.5 Kts Direction west>to more north
westerly.
For additional information, emergency preparedness and procedures refer to
You're Caribbean National Emergency Management Agencies, the Local or Regional
Met offices and for tracks and probable landfall refer to NRL Monterey or NAV
Ops Atlantic http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/home1.shtml
You are subscribed to the CANADIAN Environmental Science and Research Group
Alert. To Unsubscribe email: cesragroup{at}netscape.net and in the subject line
put Unsubscribe.
Text and Imagery of these files at: http://come.to/cesargroup\
End of CESAR Group Alert 2A
CG Team Little
CG Team..COFOR
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