THIS NOTICE IS FOR USE AS GUIDANCE ONLY
CESAR Group Alert 1A >>>>>>>>>>> Proprietary Number CAP-16-0813-00
ALERT>>ALERT
DATE: 08/17/00
TIME OF NOTICE: 1904 EDT 2304Z
CGTURN TIME: 1 Hour 30 Min.
CESAR Group CF 75% 1904 EDT 2304Z
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
CESAR Group Canada Watch Area Proprietary Investigation: CAP-16-0813-00
is issuing Alert 1A on a Tropical System to the Lesser Antilles above +15°N as
of 1904 EDT 2304Z. Based on recent imagery, the system is now better organized
and a central area is becoming identifiable. There is weak wind shear of 5Kts
near the southern quad and the tendency is a continued weakening over the past
24 hours. This disturbance is still tracking on a west>lay>northwesterly path
and continues to pose a potential threat to the Northern Lesser Antilles. The
GFDL SLP is concentrating on this tropical system and is demonstrating
development to a Tropical Storm within the next 48 hours and possibly
Hurricane status T= +72 hours on Model Run 12Z081700 with rainfall expected to
be 5>30cm over the next 72 Hrs. This run persists to path the storm north of
the Northern Lesser Antilles. All interested parties should monitor this
system carefully and should be aware of associated severe weather that may
initiate micro bursts or other weather anomalies including high winds, heavy
rain, flooding and collateral damage from mud slides. Also, be advised that
sea levels are anomaly high> deviation on model run 0815-00 indicates +4>8mm.
The wave models presently exhibit a 4 to 6 ft height westerly. Also be advised
that CESAR Group has had 6 (Micro Indices) Alerts of 5+ in the last 4 hours.
1. Present estimated position of Central Area (+/- 1.2° )=
REPOSITIONED=15.0°N> - 52.9°W by visible and IR imagery
2. Special Note: Visible Imagery attached
3. Next ADVISORY: 1000 EDT 1400 Z 0818-00
4. This ADVISORY is in effect until 1000 EDT 1400 Z 0818-00
5. Next estimated position on a 12 Hour basis> 0732 EDT 1132 Z: 16.5°N>
-53.4°W
6. Speed in nautical mile (Knots)= 10 Kts Direction west>lay>northwesterly
For additional information, emergency preparedness and procedures refer to
You're Caribbean National Emergency Management Agencies, the Local or Regional
Met offices and for tracks and probable landfall refer to NRL Monterey or NAV
Ops Atlantic http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/home1.shtml
Text and Imagery of these files at: http://come.to/cesargroup\
You are subscribed to the CANADIAN Environmental Science and Research Group
Alert. To Unsubscribe email: cesragroup{at}netscape.net and in the subject line
put Unsubscribe.
End of CESAR Group Alert 1A
CG Team Patterson
CG Team..COFOR
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