CESAR Group Watch Area Investigation: CAP-16-0813-00> NOTICE TO REISSUE
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CESAR Group Advisory 1A >>>>>>>>>>> Proprietary Number CAP-16-0813-00
DATE: 08/17/00
TIME OF NOTICE: 1143 EDT 1543 Z
CGTURN TIME: 1 Hour 54 Mins.
CESAR Group CF 65% 1143 EDT 1543 Z
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
NOTICE TO REISSUE
CESAR Group Canada Watch Area Proprietary Investigation: CAP-16-0813-00
is issuing ADVISORY 1A on a Tropical System to the Lesser Antilles above
+13.5°N as of 1143 EDT 1543 Z. Based on Imagery, modeling and various wind
vectors this system is becoming more defined and low level circulation is
evident on all imagery. Presently the system is being influence by weak to
moderate wind shear. The SST's are conducive for enhancement of this system
and winds at low level as of 0800 EDT 1200Z are 22-32 Kts. This system is
pathing west>lay>northwesterly and is a potential threat to the Northern
Lesser Antilles. Model Runs of AVN, NOGAPS are indicating a low-pressure
system as of 00Z081700 T= <0> but presently are unreliable for forecasting on
this system. The GFDL SLP is online for this area and demonstrates the system
developing into a tropical storm at Model Run 00Z081700 T=24 with rainfall
expected to be 5>30cm over the next 72 Hrs.
1. Present estimated position of Central Area (+/- 1.2°)=
15.87°N> - 52.0°W
2. Special Note: See Imagery attached
3. Next ADVISORY: 1600 EDT 2000 Z 0817-00
4. This ADVISORY is in effect until 1600 EDT 2000 Z 0817-00
5. Next estimated position on a 12 Hour basis> 2400 EDT 0400 Z:
16.9°N> -52.8°W
6. Speed in nautical mile (Knots)= 10.0 Kts Direction
west>lay>northwesterly
7. This Advisory supersedes General Severe Weather Notice of 0817-00 >
1747 EDT 0000 Z
For additional information, emergency preparedness and procedures refer to
You're Caribbean National Emergency Management Agencies, the Local or Regional
Met offices and for tracks and probable land fall refer to NRL Monterey or NAV
Ops Atlantic. Text and Imagery of these files at http://come.to/cesargroup\
THIS NOTICE IS FOR USE AS GUIDANCE ONLY
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
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Your comments and feedback are welcomed!
End of CESAR Group Advisory 1A
CG Team Patterson
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