CESAR Group Watch Area Proprietary Investigation: CAP11-0724-00 CENTERED
12.0°N > -22.0°W {at} 1400 EDT 1600 Z
______________________________________________________________________
CESAR Group Notice 1>>>>>>>>>>> Proprietary Number CAP11-0724-00 >
DATE: 07/24/00
TIME OF ADVISORY: 1605 EDT 2005 Z
CGTURN TIME: 3 h 14 min from original notification for Validation
CESAR Group CF > 65% 0702400 1715 EDT 2147 Z
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
CESAR Group Canada Watch Area Proprietary Investigation: CAP11-0724-00 >
is centered at Latitude = 12.0° N Longitude = -22.0° W Meteostat visible
imagery indicates at the time of this notice a disorganized weather area.
The AVN 12Z072400 model run demonstrates an organized weather system
developing with in the next 24 hours. Surface, Lower Wind 800>950 Mb,
Visible and Infrared Imagery, Vertical Wind Shear, and Divergence all
indicate conducive conditions for this system to develop into an organized
system. Presently, there is moderate convection within the North > lay>
north east quadrant. SST's are conducive for enhancement and Low Level
visible winds are showing signs of circulation, winds appear to be
approximately 12-15Kts. This system is presently 3°N of the ITCZ Axis point
9N-20W. The MFC Infrared imagery indicates a weak circular motion but also
indicates moderate to strong convection. The most recent modelling of NOGAPS
and UK MET are in disagreement but shows a brief low pressuere system T=+48
then dissipation. The Lesser Antilles and other interested parities should
monitor this system for further development.
DATA of Indices {as per our modelling schema} as of 07/27/00
1) Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies = 0°C>+.5°C
2) Sea Surface Temperatures = +28°C>+29C°
3) Precipitation in all Quads = 64 mm per day
4) Precipitation outer South Quad = NA
5) Wind divergence = Conducive from weak to strong in the central area of
the system 5>10> to central 20
6) Vertical wind shear = Conducive for Enhancement
7) Sea level pressure = 1010 Mb - 1009 Mb >
8) Surface winds (10m) = 12-15Kts
9) Sea Wave Heights = 3-6 Ft west to south westerly
10) Sea Level = +32 cm
11) Current Flow Influence = North Equatorial Current
12) Topography of Birth Area = Available for next Notice
13) Julian-Madden Oscillation = No Data Available
14) La Nina = Weakening -0.5°C >
15) Southern Oscillation or ENSO = steady decline presently 0.00 factored on
a 0 baseline (-)(+) 90 day average
16) Moon = Moving into Apogee > next moon August day 15, 01:14 2000
17) ITCZ Axis = 7N1W 7N10W 9N20W 9N30W 8N40W 8N50W 11N60W.
18) Global Earth Quakes = +5M > 2 with within a 24 Hr period
19) Solar Class Eruption > 1 M-3 eruption July 22 > scheduled to arrive on
Monday July 24 No Communications Disruption.
Refer to your NEMA Agencies, the Local or Regional Met offices and the NWS
or NHC Miami Fl., for - Bulletins, Strike Probabilities and Tropical Weather
Discussions.
SPECIAL NOTE: See Imagery Attached.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
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Your comments are welcomed!
<COFOR>
Verified By R. Patterson BSc.
CANADIAN Environmental Science and Research Group
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