The USA Disaster Situation Report
Special Tropical Depression Number One for June 7, 2000
Current trends indicate that the storm will develop and move towards
Southern Texas. Current probability indicates a 15% probability the storm
will reach Browsville, Texas by Saturday.
It is no possible at this time to predict the potential streangth of this
storm.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL0100
2100Z WED JUN 07 2000
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 93.1W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 2 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 93.1W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 93.0W
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.8N 93.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.5N 93.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.0N 94.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 25NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 93.1W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 23.5N 94.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 25.5N 96.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE DURING THE DAY. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS POORLY DEFINED AND
BECAUSE THE SYSTEM IS IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGE...A REFORMATION OF THE
CENTER IS LIKELY. FLUCTUATIONS IN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD
OCCUR DURING THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS ORGANIZED
ENOUGH FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT
THIS TIME.
THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN A SHEARING ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER...NUMERICAL MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO DECREASE AND BOTH
IR IMAGES AND DATA FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT
THE SHEAR IS ALREADY DECREASING. THIS MAY ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO
REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS IS THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS INDICATED BY
THE GLOBAL MODELS. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GENERAL
SLOW NORTHWEST TO NORTHWARD TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS AS INDICATED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED...DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST...INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND TEXAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEPRESSION.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/2100Z 21.2N 93.1W 25 KTS
12HR VT 08/0600Z 21.8N 93.5W 25 KTS
24HR VT 08/1800Z 22.5N 93.7W 30 KTS
36HR VT 09/0600Z 23.0N 94.0W 35 KTS
48HR VT 09/1800Z 23.5N 94.5W 35 KTS
72HR VT 10/1800Z 25.5N 96.0W 35 KTS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT WED JUN 07 2000
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.1 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2000
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
22.5N 93.7W 58 X X X 58 PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 6 6
23.0N 94.0W 35 X 1 X 36 GALVESTON TX X X 1 8 9
23.5N 94.5W 20 3 1 1 25 FREEPORT TX X X 1 9 10
MMCZ 205N 869W X X 1 1 2 PORT O CONNOR TX X X 3 9 12
MMSO 238N 982W X 1 3 6 10 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X 5 8 13
MMTM 222N 979W X 1 X 6 7 BROWNSVILLE TX X 2 7 6 15
MMTX 210N 974W X 1 X 4 5 GULF 28N 89W X X X 3 3
MMVR 192N 961W X X X 3 3 GULF 28N 91W X X X 6 6
MMFR 185N 926W X X X 3 3 GULF 28N 93W X X 1 9 10
MMMD 210N 897W X 4 3 3 10 GULF 28N 95W X X 4 8 12
BURAS LA X X X 2 2 GULF 27N 96W X 2 7 6 15
NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 2 2 GULF 25N 96W X 10 5 4 19
NEW IBERIA LA X X X 4 4
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM THU
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 1PM THU TO 1AM FRI
C FROM 1AM FRI TO 1PM FRI
D FROM 1PM FRI TO 1PM SAT
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM SAT
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER AVILA
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