Guys
Take a look at the new canadian. It came out at 1125 sunday evening and
it looks sooooo goofy I dont know where to begin.
For the past several days the canadian (CGBL) has been intializaing a
500 MB block over the north side of alaska in th arctic circle... a
closed off strong block that builds a strong surface high.
Yet every run, the model is battering the block down by a series of
power short waves and/or 500 lows coming off eastern siberia. However,
when the 12z afternoon run is out, the 500 block is 150-200 Meters
Stronger than what the 00z run was saying.
Just last friday the CGBL 144 built the High to 1033 mb before wearing
it down. Now the model develops a 1044 MB high --- before waring it
down. Indeed the CGBL takes a 545 HT block at 36 hrs and blasts out a
510 ht in less than 5 days!
The ecwmf and the new T170 experimental MRF show a Huge ridge at 144
and 168 hrs over western canada with a series of cold highs next
weekend dropping into the northern USA; the 144 cgbl is 200 meters
lower over western canada (at least 200 meters) and much warmer.
lastly the 168 hr ecmwf continues to support the idea of cold-- semi
arctic air-- over the northeast & great lakes while a new Low develops
in North Texas... Hmmmm
David Tolleris
www.planningweather.com
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