Folks
1. I have fixed the web page.... I have known for a while that on some
browsers my web site appears very big with constant horizontal scrolling
required. It has taken me 2 weeks to fix the problem with Microsoft's
help...5 different attempts it took.
anyway please take a lookie see and tell me if it looks and prints
better. I have alos re-dsigned the wX ALERT table too.
As some of you know on Thursday evening there was some email and phone
conversation regarding how cold the temps would get in the Mid
atlantic;(DC- RDU). Even the awful OPMRF on wed and thursday still had
very cold air (850 temps -10to -15 C) over the Northeast.
But what about the Mid atlantic? A tough call... and considering how
warm it has been...
Anyway If you recall I went with a High monday of 44 Low monday 7am
of 28, Tuesday High of 42 --if you recall I wanted to go lower-- low
of 19. and I thought wed would still be cold.
In case you havent been following it each run of the MRF MOS has been
colder and colder.
Today's MRF MOS
MON TUES WED
Min/Max Min/Max Min/max
RIC 32/50 28/42 17/39
LYH 32/49 27/39 18/42
IAD 27/46 24/39 14/37
Is it possible I went too WARM? ME!? that's hard to believe
harry.! But this a clasic case of using a BIAS too far. For most of
November the mild/warm pattern has affected any cool or cold air masses
anywhere in the country. But for the first part of this week, over the
eastern third of the US and ESPECIALLY the east coast, its a whole new
pattern and the warm bias is meaningless. But a lot of forecasters wont
do that-- they are essentially fighting the last battle.
Lastly, I am going to do a model tracker special on the Significace of
the Big Ocean storm in the western Atlantic that deepens mid week to 980
MB or lower. Very impressive and it was not that far from affecting ot
hitting the east coast. I think that is what the CGBL and MRF ensembles
were hinting ay back in the Middle part of the Month...
It is a very interesting development in some sense. With a classic
early winter La Nina pattern blasting in the North pacific Jet and NO
polar Vortex in Hudson's bay.... this pattern STRONGLY favors a major
Low developing somewhere near the east Coast... with wavelenght
extending from the eastern pacific to iceland is just too long and with
all this Blocking in North Canada, I think its just a matter of time
until this sort of development occurs again.
Of Course when it does the ocean storm may again stay far enough off
the coast... but the next one might not be out by 70 or 65 W longitude
next time. God help us if we get a sustained - NAO forming. Given this
pattern and blocking IF something develops close or on the east coast
--- IF--- and the NAO is Negative the event could be a rather long
lasting event....
David Tolleris
www.planningweather.com
804 717 8256
This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Thu Mar 09 2000 - 21:46:16 EST